NBA Free Pick – Monday February 7, 2011
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Minnesota Timberwolves@ New Orleans Hornets
Pointspread: Hornets -8
Over/Under: 201
Tonight, the Minnesota Timberwolves are looking to snap a three-game losing streak with a win against the New Orleans Hornets at the New Orleans Arena. Tip-off is set for 8 p.m. (ET) and the game will be broadcast live on NBATV.
Unfortunately for Minnesota numbers do not lie. The Timberwolves are 1-9 straight-up in their last 10 games, 2-23 SU on the road this season, and currently in last-place in the Western Conference with an overall record of 11-39 SU. The only positive is a somewhat better 22-28 record against the spread.
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Minnesota is coming off a 113-100 loss to Denver this past Saturday as a 4 ½-point home underdog. This followed a 111-100 loss to Toronto as a 3 ½-point road underdog on Friday night. The Timberwolves have a couple of solid players in Kevin Love and Michael Beasley, but that’s about it. Love leads the team in scoring 21.3 points a game and is their leading rebounder with an average of 15.6 a game, which is tops in the NBA. Beasley is averaging 20 points and 5.6 rebounds a game.
Minnesota is averaging 102.7 points a game, but is ranked last in the league in points allowed; giving up an average of 108.6 a game. This number has actually ballooned to an average of 111.1 points a game in its last 10. The T-Wolves are shooting 44.2 percent from the field and 38 percent from three-point range. Led by Love, they are averaging a league-best 44.8 rebounds a game, while holding opponents to 42.6.
New Orleans started the New Year on fire with 12 wins in 14 games, but have cooled as of late with four losses in its last five games. The Hornets dropped a 104-93 decision to Oklahoma City last Wednesday as a seven-point road underdog. This past Saturday, they fell to the LA Lakers 101-95 as a five-point home underdog. New Orleans is currently 32-20 SU (26-25-1 ATS) and 11 games in back of San Antonio in the Southwest Division. It has the fifth-best record in the West.
Injuries have taken their toll in the Hornets recent downturn. They have been without their leading rebounder Emeka Okafor for the last three games as he is out for another week or so with a strained oblique. Starting guard Trevor Ariza is out indefinitely with an ankle injury and forward Jason Smith remains questionable for this game, battling through the flu.
New Orleans still has David West, who leads the team with 18.8 points and has 7.5 rebounds a game and Chris Paul, who is averaging 16.7 points and 9.7 assists. The Hornets are averaging 94.8 points a game, while giving up an average of 92. They are shooting 45.8 percent from the floor and 35.8 percent from three-point range.
Minnesota is 0-4 ATS in its last four games on the road and 1-4 ATS in its last five games overall. The total has stayed ‘under’ in its last five games.
New Orleans is 1-4 ATS in its last five home games and 1-6 ATS in its last seven games overall. The total has gone ‘over’ in four of its last six games.
Head-to-head, the Hornets have won six of the last seven games SU, but the T-Wolves did win 113-98 earlier this season as a four-point home underdog and are 5-1 ATS in the last six. The total has stayed ‘under’ in five of the last six meetings.
New Orleans should be able to find a way to win this game outright, but with Okafor and Ariza out of the lineup it will be a closer game than eight points. Take the Timberwolves to cover on the road as they have been able to play this team tough over the past few seasons.
The odds makers have the New Orleans Hornets as a -8 point favorite with an over/under of 201.
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Minnesota Timberwolves Betting Trends:
- Minnesota is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
- The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Minnesota’s last 5 games
- Minnesota is 1-9 SU in its last 10 games
- Minnesota is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
New Orleans Hornets Betting Trends:
- New Orleans is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games
- The total has gone OVER in 4 of New Orleans’s last 6 games
- New Orleans is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
- New Orleans is 11-4 SU in its last 15 games
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