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Oklahoma City Thunder at Denver Nuggets
Saturday, April 23, 2011 at 10:00 pm EST on ESPN
Pointspread: Denver -5.5
Money Line: Oklahoma City Thunder +180 / Denver Nuggets -220
Over/Under: 205
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The Oklahoma City Thunder travel to the Pepsi Center this Saturday night for Game 3 of their first round, best-of-seven matchup against the Denver Nuggets in the Western Conference playoffs. Tip-off is set for 10:00 p.m. (ET) and it will be broadcast nationally on ESPN.
Oklahoma City had a battle on its hand in Game 1 last Saturday, but pulled out a 107-103 victory over Nuggets as a six-point home favorite. This past Wednesday night’s game turned into an early romp as the Thunder rolled to a 106-89 win as a 4 ½-point home favorite to sweep the first two games of this series. The total went ‘over’ the 204 ½ point line in the first game, but stayed ‘under’ the 206 point line in Game 2.
Kevin Durant, who led the NBA in scoring this season with 27.7 points a game, put up 41 points in Game 1, while Russell Westbrook, the team’s second leading scorer, added 31 more to account for close to 70 percent of the Thunder’s scoring. Wednesday night the two combined for 44 points as the bench chipped in 37 more in the lopsided victory.
Oklahoma City has outrebounded Denver 91-65 so far, but completely dominated the boards in Game 2 with 54 rebounds verse just 31 for the Nuggets. It shot 49.4 percent from the field, 47.4 percent from three-point range, and 78.6 percent from the free-throw line in Game 1. The Thunder was much less efficient in these categories in the second game, but still built a commanding 15-point lead at the half that they never relinquished.
Denver held a slim one-point lead at the half in the first game of this series and actually had the lead late in the fourth, but could not pull out the win. Wednesday night it was on the wrong end of a 31-15 first quarter score from which it never recovered. The NBA’s highest scoring team was just under its 107.5 points-a-game average in Game 1, but came nowhere close to this number with just 89 points in Game 2.
There were five Nuggets in double-figures in the first game led by Nene’s 22 points and Danilo Gallinari’s 18. Wednesday night, Ty Lawson led the way with 20 points, but Gallinari, the team’s leading scorer in the regular season, was held to just seven points. Denver shot 50.6 percent from the field in Saturday’s loss but was just 4-for-16 from three-point range. Wednesday it shot 39.1 percent from the floor and went 43.8 percent from beyond the arc.
Oklahoma City is 3-2 against the spread in its last five games on the road and 4-2 ATS in its last six games overall. The total has gone ‘over’ in five of its last seven games.
Denver is 4-2-1 ATS in its last seven games at home and 5-2 ATS in its last seven games overall. The total has gone ‘over’ in three of its last five games.
Head-to-head, the Thunder won three of four games in the regular season both straight-up and ATS including a 101-94 victory on April 5 as a 4 ½-point road underdog and a 104-89 romp as a 4 ½-point home favorite on April 8. The total stayed ‘under’ in four of the last five meetings.
The odds makers have the Denver Nuggets as a -5.5 point favorite with an over/under of 205.
Check out the latest NBA Basketball Playoff Odds here.
Predictions: A change in scenery should bring a change in fortunes for the Nuggets, as Denver is too good of team to get rolled-over like it did in Game 2. They grind out a win on Saturday night, but take the Thunder and the 5 ½ points as this game goes right down to the last possession.
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Oklahoma City Thunder vs Denver Nuggets 2011 Playoff Schedule
Game 4: Mon. April 25: Oklahoma City @ Denver – 8:30 pm EST on TNT
Game 5: Wed. April 27: Denver @ Oklahoma City – TBD
*Game 6: Fri. April 29: Oklahoma City @ Denver – TBD
*Game 7: Sun. May 01: Denver @ Oklahoma City – TBD
* If necessary
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