Oklahoma City Thunder at Dallas Mavericks
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Pointspread: Dallas Mavericks -6.5
Money Line: Oklahoma City Thunder +250, Dallas Mavericks -300
Over/Under: 198.5
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The Oklahoma City Thunder will try and keep this series alive with a win on Wednesday night at the American Airlines Center in Game 5 of their best-of-seven Western Conference Finals matchup with the Dallas Mavericks. Tip-off is set for 9 p.m. (ET) and the game will be broadcast nationally on ESPN.
It remains to be seen if Oklahoma City can recover from a devastating 112-105 overtime loss on Monday night as a four-point home favorite. It is not just the fact it is now in a 3-1 hole in this series, it’s the fact that it blew a 15-point lead down the stretch to lose the game. The loss in Game 4 dropped the Thunder’s record in the postseason to 7-8-1 against the spread overall and 4-5 ATS at home. The total went over the 196-point line and is now 8-7-1 overall and 3-3-1 on the road. They are 3-3-1 ATS on the road and as an underdog in the playoffs.
You would have to blame a complete collapse of defense in the beginning of Game 3 and down the stretch in Game 4 for Oklahoma City’s predicament. It has scored over 100 points in three of the four games against a team that was only allowing an average of 88 points, but has been unable to stop Dallas when it needed to the most. The chances of the Thunder turning things around in this game on the road would have to seem slim at best.
Kevin Durant scored a team-high 29 points and Russell Westbrook added 19 more on Monday night, but these two shot a combined 36.4 percent from the field and each missed some crucial shots with the game on the line. Oklahoma City completely dominated the boards with a 55-33 edge in rebounds and outscored the Mavs 54-36 in the paint but still managed to find a way to lose this game.
Dallas is just one win away from returning to the NBA Finals for the first time since 2006. It has been a virtual windfall of profit for anyone riding its coat tails this postseason with a 12-1-1 record ATS overall and a 5-0-1 record ATS on the road. It is 6-1 ATS at home and the total has gone ‘over’ in nine of its 14 playoff games.
Dirk Nowitzki continues to be unstoppable in the playoffs especially when his team needs it the most. He scored a game-high 40 points on Monday and is now averaging 28.6 points a game. The Mavericks’ bench has also been a key contributor as it kicked in 40 points in Game 4 led by Jason Terry’s 24. Dallas is shooting 46.7 percent from the floor in the postseason and averaging 99.6 points a game.
Head-to-head, the Mavericks won two of three straight-up in the regular season and were 2-1 ATS. The total went ‘over’ in two of the three games. Dating back to the 2009-2010 season, Dallas is 2-3 straight-up at home against the Thunder and 1-4 ATS.
The odds makers have the Dallas Mavericks as a -6.5 point favorite with an over/under of 198.5.
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Prediction: It will be next to impossible for the Thunder to bounce back from Monday’s collapse to keep Dallas from clinching this series at home on Wednesday. Out of sheer pride, Oklahoma City will keep this game close enough to cover with the 6 ½ points, but the Mavericks win the game straight-up.
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