NBA Free Pick – Friday February 11, 2011
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Phoenix Suns vs Utah Jazz (31-23)
Friday, February 11, 2011 at 10:30 pm EST on ESPN
Last meeting: Phoenix stormed into Salt Lake City and beat the Jazz 110-94 at the end of October.
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Phoenix dominated Golden State last night reaching the .500 mark and continuing a recent run of good play (they have won 5 of 6 heading into tonight). Last night was a total performance as they combined efficient shooting with good defense. They even outrebounded the Warriors by +15 which is rare for Phoenix. The Suns have had success at Utah winning their past two games, both as underdogs. That is the situation again tonight which I think is good for this team which is flying below the radar right now, especially given the shock of Utah’s coaching change. Phoenix certainly has a steady leader in Steve Nash and I expect the team to play well against what might be a shaky Jazz squad with the change. They might not dominate on the boards like they did last night but another upset is a real possibility.
The Utah Jazz are still not playing with much consistency, trading wins and losses without being able to get on a run. Most recently they lost at home to Chicago in a game where Derrick Rose really outshone Deron Williams. When these two teams last met it was a similar case but with Steve Nash getting the better of Williams. I admit I don’t watch a ton of Jazz games (who does?) but maybe Williams struggles when he faces other elite points…I am sure someone out there can run the numbers on that. No matter how you look at it, this team while still good is not as solid as it was when the Mailman and Stockton were running it. That especially applies to their homecourt where they are just 17-11 SU (12 -16 ATS) this season. I like this team and can’t put my finger on why they don’t play better, maybe the recent coaching change will give them the jolt they need.
The current line on this one is Utah -6. You can never be sure how a team responds to a new coach so I think this one is a play on Phoenix or a pass.
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Prediction: Phoenix has been playing better of late and Utah doesn’t dominate at home the way they used to. This one should be close but I think that Utah wins it late.
Score: Utah 101 – Phoenix 97
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Phoenix Suns Betting Trends:
- Phoenix is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
- The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Phoenix’s last 5 games on the road
- Phoenix is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games on the road
- The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Phoenix’s last 6 games when playing Utah
Utah Jazz Betting Trends:
- The total has gone OVER in 15 of Utah’s last 23 games
- Utah is 4-10 SU in its last 14 games
- Utah is 6-16 ATS in its last 22 games
- The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Utah’s last 5 games at home
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