Spurs vs Grizzlies | Game 3 Prediction & Pick

vs.

San Antonio Spurs (1-1) vs. Memphis Grizzlies (1-1)
Saturday, April 23, 2011 at 7:30 pm EST on ESPN

Spread: San Antonio Spurs -1.5
Over/Under: 191.5

Last meeting: The Spurs rebounded in game 2 with a 93-87 victory to event the series.

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With guard Manu Ginobili back in the lineup the Spurs avoiding falling 2-0 to the upstart Memphis Grizzlies.  Now they travel to Memphis, which given all their playoff experience should be less daunting, even though they lost to the Grizzlies twice there during the regular season.  With Ginobili back in the game the Spurs executed a very balanced attack with 5 players scoring in double figures.  More importantly they were more effective in the post on defense forcing the combination of Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol into a horrible 7 for 23 shooting.  This is still the critical area of the floor to watch as whoever is the more efficient, or better yet dominant, is likely to win the game.  The Spurs are trying to coax production out of Antonio McDyess and not getting much but he still plays pretty solid defense for stretches.

Memphis was impressive in game 1 but in game two, with their inside game production limited, they struggled to come up with other options.  As I watch the Grizzlies I find it amazing to see how far guard O.J. Mayo has fallen.  He used to be a reliable scorer, if not much else, and now he barely sees the floor and performs sporadically when he does.  It is hard to argue with the gameplan given the Grizzlies success though, as the combination of Sam Young and Tony Allen give consistent, although less dynamic performance.   Still I see Mayo as possible being able to help steal a game with some hot shooting, especially of the Grizzlies get bottled up inside again.  For the Grizzlies to regain the advantage in the series they need to get something unexpected from somewhere.  As a bettor we have to try and figure out the odds of that happening.

The current line on this one is Spurs -1.5 with an over/under of 191.5.  This is a real tough one, can the Grizzlies rebound and put the pressure on the Spurs or will there lack of experience begin to show.

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Prediction: The Grizzlies are actually the favourite but can they play like it?  I think the home crowd will be supercharged due to the win in game 1 and provide a great lift.  Just enough for them to win a squeaker.

Score:  Memphis 94 – San Antonio 90

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San Antonio Spurs Betting Trends:

• The total has gone OVER in 11 of San Antonio’s last 14 games
• San Antonio is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
• San Antonio is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games on the road
• The total has gone OVER in 5 of San Antonio’s last 7 games on the road

Memphis Grizzlies Betting Trends:

• The total has gone OVER in 4 of Memphis’s last 5 games
• Memphis is 10-5 SU in its last 15 games
• Memphis is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games at home
• The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Memphis’s last 5 games at home

San Antonio Spurs vs Memphis Grizzlies 2011 Playoff Schedule
Game 4: Mon. April 25: San Antonio @ Memphis – TBD
Game 5: Wed. April 27: Memphis @ San Antonio – TBD
*Game 6: Fri. April 29: San Antonio @ Memphis – TBD
*Game 7: Sun. May 01: Memphis @ San Antonio – TBD
* If necessary