NBA Free Pick – Monday, December 27, 2010
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Toronto Raptors @ Memphis Grizzlies
Monday, December 27, 2010 at 8:00 pm EST on NBA TV
Pointspread: Grizzlies -5 ½
Over/Under: 209 ½
Tonight the Toronto Raptors take on the Memphis Grizzlies in matchup of two teams that are trying to find a way to turn their seasons around. Tip-off from FedEx Forum in Memphis is set for 8 p.m. and the game will be broadcast live on NBATV.
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Toronto comes into this game with losses in four of its last five games including a 120-110 loss to the Lakers on Dec. 19 as a 7 ½-point home favorite and an ugly 115-92 loss to Detroit this past Wednesday night as a five-point home favorite. The Raptors are just 2-8 in their last 10 games and 10-19 straight-up overall (14-14-1 against the spread). They are in fourth place in the Atlantic Division; 13 ½ games behind Boston.
Andrea Bargnani is Toronto’s leading scorer; averaging 21.2 points but is listed as out of this game with a calf injury. The Raptors hope to have Amir Johnson, who is nursing a sore back, ready to go. Look for Leandro Barbosa, who is second on the team in scoring with 12.9 points per game, to try and pick up the slack in Bargnani’s absence.
Toronto is ranked ninth in the league in scoring; averaging 101.9 points per game, but is ranked 26th in points per game allowed; giving up 105.6 per game. The Raptors are shooting 46.6 percent from the field but just 33.5 percent from three-point range.
Memphis has also struggled this season with an overall record of 13-17 SU (17-12-1 ATS), but has won five of its last 10 games and is coming off a 104-90 win over Indiana on Sunday as a 4 ½-point road underdog. A week ago the Grizzlies took San Antonio into overtime but fell 112-106 as an 11 ½-point road underdog. They are currently in last place in the Southwest Division, 13 games behind the Spurs.
Rudy Gay has been the main man for Memphis with 20.9 points per game, but the Grizzlies do have four other players scoring in double-figures. Zach Randolph leads the team in rebounds; averaging 12.6 per game along with his 17.8 points per game. Mike Conley leads in assists with 7.1 and is averaging 14 points per game.
Memphis is averaging 99.8 points per game scoring while giving up an average of 100.3 points per game. Its 46 percent shooting from the field is ranked 14th in the league and its 35 percent shooting from beyond the three-point line ranks the team 18th overall.
Toronto is 2-2 ATS in its last four games on the road but just 1-4 ATS in its last five games overall. The total has gone ‘over’ in seven of its last nine games overall.
Memphis is 2-1 ATS in its last three home games and 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games overall. The total has gone ‘over’ in three of its last five games.
Head-to-head, the Grizzlies have won the last three games both SU and ATS. The last time they met, in February of last season, Memphis pulled out a 109-102 victory in overtime as a seven-point road underdog.
This time around, the Raptors are just too banged-up to hang with the Grizzlies especially on the road. Stick with Memphis to win and cover the 5 ½ points.
The odds makers have the Memphis Grizzlies as a -5.5 point favorite with an over/under of 209.5.
Toronto Raptors Betting Trends:
- The total has gone OVER in 7 of Toronto’s last 9 games
- Toronto is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
- Toronto is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
- Toronto is 14-6-1 ATS in its last 21 games on the road
Memphis Grizzlies Betting Trends:
- The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Memphis’s last 9 games
- The total has gone OVER in 4 of Memphis’s last 6 games at home
- Memphis is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games at home
- Memphis is 14-4-1 ATS in its last 19 games when playing Toronto
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