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Philadelphia 76ers vs. Miami Heat
Wednesday, April 27, 2011 at 7:00 pm EST on TNT
Pointspread: Miami -10.5
Money Line: 76ers +600 / Heat -800
Over/Under: 186
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The Philadelphia 76ers go back on the road this Wednesday night to try and stave off elimination in Game 5 of their first round, best-of-seven Eastern Conference playoff series with the Miami Heat. Tip-off from the American Airlines Arena is set for 7 p.m. (ET) and the game will be broadcast nationally on TNT.
It took Philadelphia four tries, but this past Sunday it finally was able to hang with Miami for four full quarters to come away with an 86-82 victory as a 5 ½-point home underdog. The 76ers were able to open up leads on the Heat and keep the game close late into the fourth quarter in two of the first three games in this series, but this was the first time they outscored Miami when they needed to the most.
The Sixers’ bench came up huge in Game 4, just like it has all series long. Evan Turner and Lou Williams led the way this time as each scored 17 points. Williams also drained a crucial three pointer with eight seconds left to seal the win. Jrue Holiday leads Philadelphia in scoring with 15.3 points a game which is slightly better than his regular season average. Elton Brand has had a productive series with 14 points and nine rebounds a game.
The 76ers have averaged 85.5 points a game which is almost 15 points less than their regular season total. They have also been held in check under the boards, getting outrebounded 47.3 to 40.5. Philly is shooting just 40 percent from the floor, but has gone 41.7 percent from three-point range.
Miami blew a golden opportunity to end this series as once again a couple of shots at the end were off the mark. This time around both Dwyane Wade and LeBron James missed shots that could have given the Heat a four-game sweep. The Heats defense also wilted down the stretch as they allowed Philly to go on a 10-0 run with an 82-76 lead.
James led the team in scoring in Game 4 with 31 points which was slightly higher than his 26.3 series average. Wade is second in scoring with 21.3 points and Chris Bosh has averaged 19.3 points and 8.5 rebounds over the four games. The Big Three have accounted for close to 70 percent of Miami’s points and 60 percent of its rebounds.
Miami is shooting 43.2 percent from the floor in this series as opposed to its 48.1 percentage during the season. The Heat have hit a woeful 23.9 percent of their shots from three-point range after converting on 37 percent of their attempts during the year. They have been able to outperform their season average of 42.2 rebounds a game.
Head-to-head, Sunday’s win was Philadelphia’s first straight-up victory in the last 10 games, but it is now 5-5 against the spread. The total has stayed ‘under’ in five of the last seven meetings. The home team is 19-9 ATS in the last 28 games between the two.
The odds makers have the Miami Heat as a -10.5 point favorite with an over/under of 186.
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Prediction: Miami has already proven it is the better all-around team, but it has yet to show it can match the Sixers’ heart and determination in an elimination game. This edge in talent ultimately prevails as the Heat put an end to this series with an outright win on Wednesday, but take Philly to cover with the 10 ½ points.
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Philadelphia 76ers Betting Trends:
- Philadelphia is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games
- Philadelphia is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games
- The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Philadelphia’s last 10 games
- The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Philadelphia’s last 5 games on the road
Miami Heat Betting Trends:
- The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Miami’s last 7 games
- Miami is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games
- Miami is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games at home
- The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Miami’s last 5 games at home
Miami Heat vs Philadelphia 76ers 2011 Playoff Schedule
*Game 6: Fri. April 29: Miami @ Philadelphia – TBD
*Game 7: Sun. May 01: Philadelphia @ Miami – TBD
* If necessary
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