Oklahoma City vs San Antonio | Prediction & Pick

NBA Free Pick – Wednesday February  23, 2011

vs.

Oklahoma City Thunder (35-19)  vs San Antonio Spurs (46-10)
Wednesday, February 23, 2011 at 7:00 pm EST on ESPN
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Last meeting: San Antonio clobbers the Thunder on New Year’s Day 101-74

I hope Kevin Durant enjoyed playing with Tim Duncan and Manu Ginobili at the All-Star game because now it is back to the business of trying to beat the Spurs.  The young Thunder have been spanked twice by the Spurs this season so I would think they will be extra focused on this one as they try and establish themselves as contenders for this season.  In the two losses Durant has averaged only 19.5 ppg (significantly below his season average) so they need him to step up for the Thunder to have a real chance at an upset…or even just to stay in the game.  Oklahoma City plays a free flowing style but it will be difficult to try and outrun the older Spurs given the recently completed All-Star break and that San Antonio has been parsing its minutes for its stars all season long revealing a depth many didn’t know they had.  The Thunder may be on the rise but the Spurs are still a cut above most of the league.

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The San Antonio Spurs entered the All-Star break with the league’s best record but any chance of them even tying the Bulls record would mean they don’t lose another game from here on out (not likely).  Not only are they off to a wicked start straight up but they have been one of the most bankable teams in the league as well with a 34-20-2 ATS record.  They have been very stingy at home with just two losses but a better bet against the number on the road as the values have been bled out of many lines at the Alamodome.  On New Years’s day the Spurs just killed the Thunder in the paint, outscoring them 60 to 26.  If they do so again the Spurs will again collect an easy victory.  Even if they don’t they will likely win handily.

The current line on this one is San Antonio -7.5.  As alluded to earlier there is not a lot of value here.

Prediction:  The older Spurs will collect another victory over the New Kids on the Block Thunder…but this one will be a little closer then the last time.

Score:  San Antonio 99 – Oklahoma City 91

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Oklahoma City Thunder Betting Trends:

• Oklahoma City is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games
• Oklahoma City is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
• Oklahoma City is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing San Antonio
• Oklahoma City is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing San Antonio

San Antonio Spurs Betting Trends:

• The total has gone OVER in 5 of San Antonio’s last 7 games
• San Antonio is 17-4 SU in its last 21 games
• The total has gone UNDER in 14 of San Antonio’s last 21 games
• The total has gone UNDER in 5 of San Antonio’s last 5 games at home