NBA Free Pick – Friday February 25, 2011
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Oklahoma City Thunder (36-20) vs Orlando Magic (36-22)
Friday, February 25, 2011 at 8:00 pm EST on ESPN
Last meeting: The Thunder won a squeaker 125 -124 against the Magic at home in January.
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The Thunder didn’t solve the San Antonio Spurs but at least they got closer this time losing by just 4 points on Wednesday night. Although it was a SU loss it marked the teams third cover in a row as they head to Orlando to face the Magic. Their home win against Orlando last month was the only time they have been a dog all year at their own place and they will almost certainly be again on Friday night. As away dogs the Thunder are a very respectable 9-6 ATS including the aforementioned loss to San Antonio earlier this week. The key to this one will be whether Oklahoma City can get the Magic to play at the accelerated pace that they like. Sacramento was able to speed up Orlando on Wednesday to the tune of an embarrassing upset victory over the Magic.
Orlando seems to have plateaued after experiencing a lift when their reinforcements arrived via trade back in December. It was a smart play to make the changes then rather than wait until the deadline but the way they have been playing of late they are a decided notch below Boston, Miami and even Chicago in the Eastern Conference. Orlando is just 5-5 SU and ATS in their last 10 games and fell hard coming out of the break losing to a poor Sacramento team. The loss was not a great sign but it might have served as a wakeup call for the team as Superman Dwight Howard called out his teammates after the game. The visiting Thunder will pose a steep challenge as they look to rebound.
The current line on this one is Orlando -7. There is a revenge factor but I think this one will be close and entertaining. I would back Oklahoma City.
Prediction: Both teams are on the periphery of championship contenders and will be looking to make a statement. Orlando has the advantage at home and with Howard in this close contest. Will go down to final possession.
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Score: Orlando 103 – Oklahoma City 101
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Oklahoma City Thunder Betting Trends:
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Oklahoma City’s last 12 games
Oklahoma City is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Oklahoma City’s last 6 games on the road
Oklahoma City is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Orlando Magic Betting Trends:
Orlando is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Orlando’s last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Orlando’s last 13 games at home
Orlando is 12-4 SU in its last 16 games at home
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