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Denver Nuggets at Oklahoma City Thunder
Pointspread: Oklahoma City -5.5
Money Line: Nuggets +200 / Thunder -240
Over/Under: 200.5
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The No.5 seed Denver Nuggets square-off against their Northwest Division rival the No.4 seed Oklahoma City Thunder in the first round of the Western Conference playoffs. Game 1 from the Oklahoma City Arena is set for Sunday night at 9:30 p.m.(ET) and it will be broadcast nationally on TNT.
Denver was pretty much set as the five seed in the West heading into the last few weeks of the season, but it still kept the foot on the gas with seven wins in its last 10 games. The Nuggets finished the year 50-32 straight-up and 44-34-4 against the spread. Their 33-8 SU record at home (21-17-3 ATS) was second-best in the West but they went just 17-24 on the road (23-17-1 ATS).
Danilo Gallinari, Wilson Chandler, and Raymond Felton have made a significant impact on this team since coming over from New York in the Carmelo Anthony trade. The three have combined for 39 points and 14 rebounds a game. Nene’ remains the primary force under the boards with 7.6 rebounds a game and Felton leads in assists with 6.5. Ty Lawson, who is averaging 11.7 points a game, remains questionable for this game with an ankle injury.
The Nuggets have had little problem putting points on the board with a NBA-best 107.5 a game. They have also struggled to keep their opponents from doing the same; giving up an average of 102.7 points which is ranked 21st in the league. Denver is shooting 47.6 percent from the field and 38.8 percent from three-point range which are both among the best percentages in the NBA.
Oklahoma City also won seven of 10 games down the stretch to end the season 55-27 SU and 43-38-1 ATS. It was 30-11 SU at home this season (20-20-1 ATS) and tied for the third-best road record in the conference at 25-16 SU (23-18 ATS).
The Thunder feature one of the most dynamic players in the league in Kevin Durant. His 27.7 points a game was tops in the NBA and he also averaged 6.8 rebounds and 2.7 assists a game. Russell Westbrook has been the perfect compliment with 21.9 points and a team-high 8.2 assists a game. These two have combined for over 47 percent of the team’s points this year.
Oklahoma City is ranked fifth in the league in scoring with 104.8 points a game, while giving up an average of 101. It is shooting 46.4 percent from the floor and 34.7 percent from three-point range. The Thunder are the best team in the NBA from the free-throw line; converting on 82.3 percent of their attempts.
Denver is 4-1 ATS in its last five road games and 6-2 ATS in its last eight games overall. The total has gone 2-1-2 in its last five games.
Oklahoma City is 1-3 ATS in its last four games at home but 4-2 ATS in its last six games overall. The total has gone ‘over’ in four of its last five games.
Head-to-head, the Thunder have won three of four games this season both SU and ATS including a 101-94 victory on April 5 as a 4 ½-point road underdog and a 104-89 romp as a 4 ½-point home favorite on April 8. The total has stayed ‘under’ in the last three meetings.
The odds makers have the Thunder as a -5.5 point favorite with an over/under of 200.5.
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Prediction: There is no love lost between these two teams and Game 1 will be far more than the ‘war of words’ that have recently been played out in the media. Oklahoma City takes a 1-0 series lead with a straight-up win, but stick with the Nuggets to cover with the 5 ½ points.
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Oklahoma City Thunder vs Denver Nuggets 2011 Playoff Schedule
Game 1: Sun. April 17: Denver @ Oklahoma City – 7:30 pm EST on TNT
Game 2: Wed. April 20: Denver @ Oklahoma City – 6:00 pm EST on TNT
Game 3: Sat. April 23: Oklahoma City @ Denver – 8:00 pm EST on ESPN
Game 4: Mon. April 25: Oklahoma City @ Denver – 8:30 pm EST on TNT
Game 5: Wed. April 27: Denver @ Oklahoma City – TBD
*Game 6: Fri. April 29: Oklahoma City @ Denver – TBD
*Game 7: Sun. May 01: Denver @ Oklahoma City – TBD
* If necessary
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