Nuggets vs Nets | Prediction & Pick

NBA Free Pick – Monday January  31, 2011

vs.

Denver Nuggets @ New Jersey Nets
Monday, January 31, 2011 at 7:00 pm EST on NBA TV

Pointspread: Nuggets -3
Over/Under: 205.5

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The Denver Nuggets will be looking to add a much needed win tonight to keep pace with Oklahoma City in the Northwest Division when they take on the New Jersey Nets. Tip-off from the Prudential Center in Newark is set for 7 p.m. (ET) and the game will be broadcast on NBA TV.

Denver’s recent four-game winning streak, including three straight on the road, ended with a 110-99 loss to Philadelphia on Sunday as a 1 ½-point road underdog. The loss leaves the Nuggets at 28-19 straight-up on the year and 20-24-3 against the spread. They trail the Thunder in the division by two-games and are currently holding on to sixth-place in the Western Conference.

This team continues to plod its way through the regular season with a huge storm cloud hanging over its head because of the uncertain future of its biggest star; Carmelo Anthony. He accounts for a large percentage of the team’s production with an average of 23.6 points and 7.9 rebounds a game. Chauncey Billips, who has also been rumored to be on his way out, is the team’s second leading scorer with 16.3 points per game and leads in assists with an average of 5.2.

These two have helped Denver lead the league in points-per-game with 107.7, but defense is still an issue as it is ranked 23rd in points allowed; giving up an average of 104.4 a game. The Nuggets are shooting 46.9 percent from the field and have the second-best percentage from three-point range in the NBA at 39.6. They are pulling down an average of 41.2 rebounds a game, while their opponents are averaging 42.2.

A few weeks back, New Jersey appeared to be the team that Anthony was going to be traded to, but the deal never materialized. Instead the Nets remain one of the bottom-feeders in the Eastern Conference with an overall record of 14-34 SU (23-25 ATS). They are in 12th-place overall and a full seven games out of the eighth and final playoff spot. New Jersey is 4-6 SU in their last 10 games including a 124-92 loss to Indiana on Friday night as a six-point road underdog and a 91-81 loss to Milwaukee the following night as a 6 ½-point road dog.

Brook Lopez continues to lead the team in scoring with an average of 19.5 points per game, but the real question mark for tonight’s game is the availability of Devin Harris, who is the team’s second leading scorer with 15.5 points and leads the team in assists with 7.6. He is currently listed as questionable for with a calf injury.

The main problem for New Jersey this season has been its inability to consistently put points on the board night after night. The Nets are currently ranked second-to-last in the league with an average of just 92.4 points per game. Defensively, they are giving up an average of 98.5 points which leaves them with the third worst point differential in the NBA at -6.1. New Jersey is also ranked in the bottom third of the league in rebounds with an average of 40.6 a game.

The odds makers have the Denver Nuggets as a -3 point favorite with an over/under of 205.5.

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Denver Nuggets & New Jersey Nets Betting Trends

• The Nuggets are 3-2 ATS in their last five games on the road and 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall. The total has gone ‘over’ in Denver’s’ last five games.
• The Nets are 4-1 ATS in their last five home games and 3-3 ATS in their last six games overall. The total has stayed ‘under’ in four of New Jersey’s last six games.
• Head-to-head, the Nuggets have won seven of the last eight games SU, including the last four straight. They are 6-2 ATS and the total has gone ‘over’ in four of their last six meetings. Earlier this season Denver managed a 107-103 win over New Jersey as a 10-point home favorite. The total went ‘over’ the 206 ½-point line.
• The Nuggets cannot afford back-to-back losses to teams with losing records and should be primed for a solid performance against the stumbling Nets. Stick with Denver to win and cover the points in this one.

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