Nuggets vs Heat | Prediction & Pick

NBA Free Pick -Saturday March 19, 2011

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Denver Nuggets at Miami Heat
Saturday, March 19, 2011 at 7:30 pm EST on NBA TV

Pointspread: Miami -8
Over/Under: 206.5

The Denver Nuggets will look to continue their impressive push towards the postseason when they travel to South Beach to tangle with the Miami Heat tonight at the American Airlines Arena. Tip-off is set for 7:30 p.m. (ET) and the game will be broadcast nationally on NBA TV.

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Denver’s recent tear which included seven victories in its last eight games got derailed a bit in an 85-82 loss to Orlando last night as a 5 ½-point road underdog. The loss dropped the Nuggets to 41-28 straight-up on the year (35-31-3 against the spread) and 4 ½-games behind Oklahoma City in the Northwest Division. They are still in solid shape for the postseason; sitting in fifth-place in the Western Conference.

Wilson Chandler, who came over in the trade for Carmelo Anthony, is now leading the way for the Nuggets with 14.2 points and 5.7 rebounds a game. They are also hoping to get a boost from another of their top scorers, Danilo Gallinari, who returned to action against Orlando after going down with a toe injury in late February.

Friday night was the first time Denver scored less than 90 points in its last 10 games. It leads the league in scoring with an average 107.4 points a game, but it is ranked 21st in points allowed; giving up an average of 103.3. The Nuggets are shooting 47.5 percent from the floor and 38.8 percent from three-point range, which puts them in the top five of the NBA in both categories.

Miami quickly bounced back from a 96-85 loss to Oklahoma City on Wednesday as a six-point home favorite with a 106-85 beatdown of Atlanta as a 6 ½-point road favorite last night. The Heat have now won four of their last five games to run their record to 47-22 SU and 35-31-3 ATS. They are just 2 ½-games behind Chicago for the top spot in the East.

LeBron James put up 43 points in the win over the Hawks which was well above his team-high average of 26 points a game. Dwyane Wade is just a half a point behind James as the second leading scorer with 25.5 points a game. Chris Bosh rounds out the big three with 18.4 points and 8.2 rebounds a game.

The Heat are ranked eighth in the NBA in scoring with an average of 101.5 points a game. Their +7.15 point differential against their opponents remains the highest in the league. Miami has the third-best shooting percentage in the league; hitting 47.7 percent of its shots and is connecting on 37 percent of its attempts from beyond the arc.

Denver is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games on the road and 12-1 ATS in its last 13 games overall. The total has stayed ‘under’ in seven of its last nine games.

Miami is 3-3 ATS in its last six home games and 4-1 ATS in its last five games overall. The total has stayed ‘under’ in four of its last seven games.

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Head-to-head, the Nuggets have won nine of the last 10 games SU including a 130-102 rout on Jan. 13 as a 1 ½-point home favorite. The total went well over the 204 point line. This time around it is Miami’s turn to shine at home and while it should be able win this game straight-up, stick with Denver to keep it close enough to cover the eight points.

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