NBA Finals Betting Preview-Game 5
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vs.
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Miami Heat at Dallas Mavericks
Pointspread: Dallas -2
Over/Under: 185.5
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The Miami Heat will look to regain the edge in this best-of-seven series on Thursday night when they tangle with the Dallas Mavericks in Game 5 of this NBA Finals matchup. Tip-off from the American Airlines Center in Dallas is set for 9 p.m. (ET) and the game will be broadcast nationally on ABC.
Miami suddenly finds itself in a dog fight for this year’s NBA title after letting another lead slip away in an 86-83 loss as a three-point road underdog in Tuesday night’s Game 4. The loss dropped the Heat to 5-4 on the road in these playoffs straight-up and 5-3-1 against the spread. The total stayed ‘under’ the 186.5 point total and has now stayed ‘under’ in six of their nine road games. They are 14-5 SU overall this postseason and 12-6-1 ATS. The total is 9-9-1 in the 18 games played.
LeBron James pulled disappearing act in Game 4 with just eight points on the night, his lowest total ever in the playoffs. It was especially evident in the fourth quarter with just one shot and zero points. Dwyane Wade picked up the slack for the second game in-a-row with a game-high 32 points after leading the team with 29 points in Sunday’s Game 3.
Miami shot 42.7 percent from the floor but was just 2-for-14 from three-point range. The Heat had the edge in rebounds (44-41) and points in-the-paint (40-38) but were outscored by the Mavericks’ bench 28-15. The bigger concern heading into this game is their inability to hold onto leads after blowing a 15-point lead in Game 2 and a nine-point lead with 10 minutes left to play in Game 4.
The resiliency of this Dallas team has whittled this series down to a best-of-three with both teams 1-1 at home, in what very well could have been a four-game Miami sweep. The Mavericks are now 14-5 SU and 13-4-2 ATS overall in the playoffs. They are 8-2 SU at home and 6-3-1 ATS. The total is 9-9-1 overall, but has stayed ‘under’ in four of its last five games.
Dirk Nowitzki continues to be the story for Dallas in this series. His late-game heroics to pull off one of the greatest comebacks in Finals history on Sunday night were followed up with 10 points and five rebounds in the fourth quarter of Tuesday night’s come-from-behind win. The Mavericks’ also received a huge effort from Jason Terry, who scored 17 points off the bench after getting shut down by James in Game 3. Shawn Merion was also able to take some pressure off of Nowitzki by shooting 7-for-12 from the floor and scoring 16 points.
The biggest thing that Dallas accomplished with this win was to put back a sense of doubt in the minds of the Heat that they have the capability to finish strong when the game is on the line. Miami clearly has the edge in talent in this matchup, but it has not been able to use it to put these games away when it had the chance.
Once again the momentum in this series has swung back in the Mavericks’ favor and they realize that with this being their last home game of the series, it becomes a must-win event. Stick with Dallas to use this momentum to its advantage to gain a 3-2 series lead heading back to Miami with another tight win.
The odds makers have the Dallas Maverics as a -2 point favorite with an over/under of 185.5.
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Miami Heat Betting Trends:
- Miami is 18-5 SU in its last 23 games
- Miami is 6-1-1 ATS in its last 8 games
- The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Miami’s last 5 games
- The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Miami’s last 5 games on the road
Dallas Mavericks Betting Trends:
- Dallas is 12-3 SU in its last 15 games
- Dallas is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games
- Dallas is 17-4-2 ATS in its last 23 games
- The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Dallas’s last 5 games
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