Miami Heat 2009-2010 Season Preview, Picks & Odds

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Miami Heat 2008-2009 NBA Record: 43-39, 3rd in Southeast Division

Miami Heat 2008-2009 ATS (Against The Spread): 41-40-1

Miami Heat Betting Trends & Betting Angles:

• 0-6 SU, 0-5-1 ATS past 6 at Orlando

• UNDER is 15-4-1 past 20 as double-digit dog

• 16-4 SU past 20 at home to Wizards

• 13-1-1 ATS past 15 at Washington

• OVER is 10-3 past 13 Jan road games

• 4-16 SU past 20 March road games

• 8-8 ATS past 11 April road games

Miami Heat 2009-2010 Preview & Prediction

This seems to be a motivated group across the board. Ownership and management probably feels a sense of urgency to return to a championship level team to keep Wade happy, although Riley always wants to win. Players like O’Neal want to have a big year whether it’s to quiet the critics or earn his next big payday. Young players want to improve and show Wade this team could have enough to compete for a title with a move here or there. And Wade is driven because of who he is.

All of this could have the makings for an even better season than last year for the Heat. We’ll find out next summer whether it was enough to keep Wade in Miami.

Miami Heat Coach: Erik Spoelstra (2nd season)

Miami Heat Returning Players: Centers Jermaine O’Neal, Jamaal Magloire and Joel Anthony; forwards Michael Beasley, Udonis Haslem, James Jones, Yakhouba Diawara, Dorell Wright; guards Dwyane Wade, Daequan Cook, Mario Chalmers, Chris Quinn.

Miami Heat Key Additions: Guard Quentin Richardson (trade from Timberwolves), forward Shavlik Randolph (free agent), guard Carlos Arroyo (free agent).

Miami Heat Key Subtractions: Center Mark Blount (traded to Timberwolves), forward Jamario Moon (signed with Cavaliers), guard Luther Head (signed with Pacers).

2009-2010 Miami Heat Point Guards:

Chalmers, acquired from Minnesota, was a major surprise. The second-round pick was the lone Heat player to start and appear in all 82 games last year.

Point guard generally is considered the toughest position to adjust to from college, but Chalmers handled it professionally, effectively and efficiently.

The unflappable Chalmers averaged 10 points, 4.9 assists, 1.95 steals and 2.0 turnovers. The Heat expects an even better year from him.

Chris Quinn, a heady guard, returns as a backup and the Heat drafted Patrick Beverley from Arkansas. He’s got a defensive mind set and plays with tremendous energy. Both will be asked to push Chalmers in practice so he improves more.

The Heat was considering adding another point guard for insurance.

2009-2010 Miami Heat Off Guards:

This guy Wade is pretty good. The Heat should try to hold on to him. His all around stunning effort last season sparked the Heat’s turnaround.

Wade led the NBA in scoring and became the first player to total at least 2,000 points, 500 assists, 150 steals and 100 blocks in one campaign. His 106 blocks were the most ever by a player 6-4 and under.

What does he do for an encore?

Statistically, the Heat probably hope a little less if it means everyone else is doing more.

Keeping Wade fresh and not asking him to do too much is key for Miami. Every great player needs help – ask Kobe Bryant, LeBron James, Kevin Garnett. It’s probably just as important for Wade mentally to see his teammates raising their games. It might make re-signing Wade easier.

His contract situation aside, there will be little change in Wade’s approach and that’s to continue to lead Miami as far as possible.

The Heat hopes Cook takes another step in his development. He had some strong moments last season, but struggled after winning the Three-Point Shootout over All-Star Weekend. It may have been because he was getting more defensive attention.

Since he’s known as ‘a shooter’ now, Cook worked on his off-the-dribble game. Quentin Richardson was acquired for depth at 2 and 3.

2009-2010 Miami Heat Small Forwards:

Miami is looking for big bounce-back years from James Jones and Dorell Wright and planning to slide Beasley over to play some small forward.

It could be a by-committee position unless Jones or Wright grab it, or Beasley makes the transition so easily that he forces Spoelstra to play him 30-plus minutes here.

That might be the best thing even if Beasley, the No.2 overall pick last year, was Miami’s best scorer off the bench as a rookie.

Beasley worked on his skills at small forward – both what to expect on the defensive end and pushing the ball up the floor off rebounds.

Jones struggled last year after missing the first 34 games after right wrist surgery. He came on at the end of the season and spent more time than anyone in Miami working during the offseason. Like Cook, Spoelstra had Jones work on shooting off the dribble.

Wright, a starter two years ago before needing reconstructive knee surgery, is a versatile player who can be effective if he can stay healthy. He worked over the summer with noted trainer Tim Grover.

The Heat also have Yakhouba Diawara, a poor-man’s Bruce Bowen. Richardson helps a lot here.

2009-2010 Miami Heat Power Forwards:

After shooting guard, this is the Heat’s strongest position with reliable veterans Udonis Haslem and Beasley, who turns 21 in January.

Like Wade, Haslem has had a huge impact on this impressionable team with his work ethic, toughness and team-first attitude. He played last season with major back pain, but didn’t miss a game due to injury until lacerating his thumb on a backboard going for a block.

Haslem also has an expiring contract, so it could make him valuable in a trade. Reportedly, Miami spoke with Utah about Carlos Boozer and Haslem’s name was involved. Riley has downplayed trade talks for Boozer. Regardless, as long as Haslem is in Miami, he’s the heart and soul of the team and if he’s moved the Heat will miss him. Spoelstra considers Beasley ‘a hybrid forward, so he’ll play both positions. He has to play major minutes regardless.

As a starter, Beasley had games like he did in college, especially at the end of the season. Starting for Haslem, Beasley averaged 24.2 points and 11.2 rebounds, with three double­doubles, in his last five regular-season games.

2009-2010 Miami Heat Centers:

Wade throws it into O’Neal just sounds right, but it’s a different O’Neal and he could be even more different than last season.

Acquired around the trade deadline, Jermaine O’Neal had some good moments. He averaged 2.0 blocks, but just one double-double in 27 games with the Heat. Once again, O’Neal wasn’t the All-Star caliber player of before.

But he spent hours in the gym over the summer and worked with Tim Grover in Chicago. O’Neal wants to return to being the player he was before the knee surgeries.

O’Neal wants to prove he can be a force again. But he’s also in the final year of his contract. That makes players go harder. He won’t sniff the $23 million he’s owed this season, but probably wants to increase his market value.

The Heat has plenty of size with veteran Jamaal Magloire and shot-blocking big man Joel Anthony.

Miami Heat 2009-2010 Season Predictions

We predict that the Miami Heat will finish 3rd in the NBA Southeast Division .

Miami Heat Betting

Miami Heat NBA Championship Odds: +1400

Miami Heat Eastern Conference Odds: +4000

Miami Heat 2008-2009 Betting Stats

Miami Heat Straight Up: 43-39

Miami Heat ATS: 41-40-1

Miami Heat Home ATS: 20-21

Miami Heat Away ATS: 21-19-1

Miami Heat Record As Favorite: 27-9

Miami Heat Record As Dog: 16-30

Miami Heat Over/Under: 45-36-1

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