Memphis Grizzlies 2010 Preview & Predictions

Memphis Grizzlies 2010 Season Preview, Predictions Picks & Odds

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Memphis Grizzlies 2009-2010 NBA Record: 40-42, 4th in Southwest Division

Memphis Grizzlies Betting Trends & Betting Angles:
• 1-19 SU past 20 trips to Dallas
• 3-13 SU past 16 games vs Rockets
• OVER is 8-1 past 9 trips to New Orleans
• Broke 10-game lose skid in SA last year
• 4-16 SU past 20 vs San Antonio
• 3-8 ATS past 11 within Southwest Div
• 12-4 ATS past 16 as fave or 2 or less pts

Memphis Grizzlies 2010 Preview & Prediction

Three years ago, Memphis Grizzlies majority owner Michael Heisley vowed his team would be in the playoffs in three years. Well, according to the calendar on the wall, time’s up. And after the Grizz made a dramatic 16-game improvement last season, Heisley isn’t backing away from his vow. With a mix of solid draft-day moves (trading for guard O.J. Mayo in 2008) and some questionable ones (picking center Hasheem Thabeet in 2009), the Grizzlies, under Heisley and general manager Chris Wallace, have enjoyed a greater degree of stability and consistency of late. In 2008, Wallace got the draft rights to center Marc Gasol from the Lakers as part of the deal that sent older brother Pau Gasol to the West Coast. Last year, Heisley OK’d the move to trade for bad-boy forward Zach Randolph. This offseason, Heisley locked up fifth year veteran forward Rudy Gay with afive-year, $82 million contract. That trio combined to average 55.0 points and 26.9 rebounds last season. Gay, part of the team’s core group (with Gasol, Mayo and Mike Conley), likes what he sees. There’s also stability in the front office. Just before the end of last season, Heisley re-signed Lionel Hollins as coach and Wallace as GM in June. Hollins is 53-68 (.438) after taking over for the fired Marc Iavaroni midway through the 2008-09 season. The former 10-year NBA veteran, a starting guard on Portland’s 1977 championship team, is a fair, straight-talking, common sense coach who is appreciated by his players because he doesn’t play favorites.

Memphis Grizzlies Coach: Lionel Hollins (5th season)

Memphis Grizzlies Projected Starters: PG Mike Conley, SG O.J. Mayo, SF Rudy Gay, PF Zach Randolph, C Marc Gasol.

Memphis Grizzlies Key Additions: G Tony Allen, G Acie Law.

Memphis Grizzlies Key Losses: G Ronnie Brewer.

2010 Memphis Grizzlies Point Guards:

Three seasons into his career, former high lottery pick Mike Conley is still struggling to find consistency. Over the last two seasons, the stark difference in Conley’s first-half (9.5 points and 4.3 assists) and second-half (14.7 points and 5.7 assists) splits is more akin to a baseball player. Second-half Conley is someone the Grizzlies can commit to as a starting point guard, but first-half Conley is a placeholder. And with restricted free agency coming up next summer, this may be Conley’s last chance to establish himself with the Grizzlies. Conley has developed into a fine spot-up shooter (39 percent from threepoint range last season), but the Grizzlies need him to be a more dynamic distributor and stronger floor leader. Behind Conley, the situation is unsettled. The Grizzlies hope first-rounder Greivis Vasquez’ size, court vision, and fiery demeanor can make him a nice contrast to Conley, but there were real questions about Vasquez’s ability to adapt to the speed of the NBA game even before he had minor ankle surgery this summer. Both O.J. Mayo and the team’s front office would like to see Mayo slide over to take some of the pointguard minutes, but coach Hollins has been reluctant to play Mayo on the ball, and a brief experiment with Mayo at the point in summer league didn’t go very well. They signed journeyman Acie Law in August.

2010 Memphis Grizzlies Off Guards:

O.J. Mayo improved on his rookie season, but only modestly. With more scoring talent around him, Mayo became less prolific but more efficient. His scoring average dipped from 18.5 to 17.5, but his shooting percentage increased from 44 percent to 46 percent. Mayo became more adept at finishing plays at the rim and was less turnover-prone. He remains the team’s best 3-point shooter (38 percent on more than four attempts per game), but didn’t improve in that area the way the team had hoped. As arguably the team’s best combination perimeter scorer/playmaker, Mayo probably needs to be featured more prominently. Defensively, Mayo is willing, but at 6-4 simply gives up too much size on some nights, and he struggled defending bigger two guards such as Stephen Jackson and Joe Johnson. The team’s two top additions are both primarily off guards. Free agent signee Tony Allen is a playoff-proven defensive specialist the team believes will be its best “stopper” since James Posey. Top draft pick Xavier Henry has an NBA-ready body and NBA-ready jumper and the hopes he’ll add another three-point threat at both wing positions.

2010 Memphis Grizzlies Small Forwards:

After a disappointing third season, Rudy Gay rebounded in year four, but didn’t quite break out. A dynamite athlete who can score effectively in transition and in the halfcourt, Gay is already a borderline all-star type of player. But in signing him over the summer to a five-year contract for more than $80 million, the Grizzlies are expecting more. Behind Gay, second-year swingman Sam Young and rookie Xavier Henry look to compete for minutes. Young proved to be a strong isolation scorer from 18 feet and in, but needs to work on his flat jumper and play better team basketball to take the next step. Henry’s shooting ability could bring a much-needed dimension to the team’s bench. Second-year forward DeMarre Carroll shot poorly as a rookie and looked overmatched athletically. Unless something changes, he may not get much playing time.

2010 Memphis Grizzlies Power Forwards:

After a rocky, journeyman career, Zach Randoph landed in Memphis and had a charmed season. Randolph kept out of trouble (at least until the offseason), made his first All-Star team, and became a huge fan favorite. A wide body with a soft touch, Randolph has long been a prolific scorer and rebounder, but last season he was more productive (his 20.8 points and 11.7 rebounds per game were the second-highest and highest averages of his career, respectively), more efficient (49 percent shooting, his best since becoming a starter), and a better teammate than ever before. Randolph was such a beastly interior scorer and rebounder that his sub par defense and sometimes sketchy shot selection went generally unnoticed. Can Randolph give a repeat performance? The Grizzlies will need it from him to get into the playoffs. Behind Randolph, third-year forward Darrell Arthur is coming off a lost season. He missed the first 50 games with a shoulder injury and never got on track. Arthur is too small to play in the post and hasn’t flashed the mid-range game he showed in college. He’ll need to play with energy defensively, and on the boards and develop some consistency from 15-18 feet to establish himself as a legitimate rotation player.

2010 Memphis Grizzlies Centers:

The Grizzlies drafted big-man project Hasheem Thabeet with the second overall pick last summer, apparently not appreciating how terrific a young center they already had in Marc Gasol. Casol was very consistent en route to season averages of 14.6 points and 9.3 rebounds on 58 percent shooting and finished tied for second in the league’s Most Improved Player vote. His interior passing proved to be a big help to new frontcourt mate Zach Randolph, with whom Gasol developed tremendous on court chemistry. The previously burly Gasol also came into camp significantly slimmer last summer and this new body spurred a defensive transformation that allowed Gasol to guard the opposition’s best frontcourt player most nights (he defended power forwards better than Randolph) and made him a much more effective pick-and-roll defender. Gasol may never match the performance of his elder brother, Lakers star Pau, but at 25 he’s one of the league’s best young big men. Gasol’s mobility allows him to share the floor with Thabeet when the team wants to go big, but in a disastrous rookie season Thabeet didn’t really push for significant minutes. Spending most of the season shuttling between the bench and the Developmental League, Thabeet proved to be an elite shot blocker, but was plagued by foul trouble, a lack of strength, wavering focus, and a nonexistent offensive game. He’s got potential and showed significant improvement this summer, but Thabeet has a long way to go. Behind Thabeet is Hamed Haddadi, the NBA’s first and only Iranian-born player. Haddadi is a nice story, but at best a third-string center.

Memphis Grizzlies 2010 Season Predictions

We predict that the Memphis Grizzlies will finish 5th in the NBA Southwest Division .

Memphis Grizzlies Betting

Memphis Grizzlies NBA Championship Odds: +6000
Memphis Grizzlies Eastern Conference Odds: +2500

Memphis Grizzlies 2009-2010 Betting Stats

Memphis Grizzlies Straight Up: 40-42
Memphis Grizzlies ATS: 39-42-1
Memphis Grizzlies Home ATS: 18-22-1
Memphis Grizzlies Away ATS: 21-20
Memphis Grizzlies Record As Favorite: 25-12
Memphis Grizzlies Record As Dog: 15-30
Memphis Grizzlies Over/Under: 45-36-1

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