Memphis Grizzlies 2009-2010 Season Preview, Picks & Odds

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Memphis Grizzlies 2008-2009 NBA Record: 24-58, 5th in Southwest Division

Memphis Grizzlies 2008-2009 ATS (Against The Spread): 38-42-2

Memphis Grizzlies Betting Trends & Betting Angles:

• UNDER is 9-1 past 10 games as double-digit dog

• 2-14 SU past 16 vs San Antonio

• 0-8 SU, 2-6 ATS past 8 at New Orleans

• 1-18 SU past 19 trips to Dallas

• 2-6 SU but 6-2 ATS past 6 at Houston

• OVER is 10-3 past 13 Nov home games

• UNDER is 9-2 past 11 Jan home games

Memphis Grizzlies 2009-2010 Preview & Prediction

The Grizzlies ended last season with momentum due to the improved play from Conley and Gay and the sense that the team was finally heading in the right direction under Lionel Hollins. But controversial off­season moves, an owner putting severe restrictions on spending, and a muddled decision making structure dampens the optimism. Playing in front of some of the NBA’s smallest crowds doesn’t help, and that’s unlikely to change until the team puts a winner on the floor.

Memphis Grizzlies Coach: Lionel Hollins (4th season)

Memphis Grizzlies Returning Players: Forwards Darrell Arthur, Rudy Gay; guards Mike Conley, Marko Jaric, O.J. Mayo; centers Marc Gasol, Hamed Haddadi.

Memphis Grizzlies Key Additions: Forward DeMarre Carroll (draft), guard Allen Iverson (free agent), center Steven Hunter (trade from Nuggets), forward Zach Randolph (trade from Clippers), center Hasheem Thabeet (draft), guard Marcus Williams (free agent), forward Sam Young (draft).

Memphis Grizzlies Key Subtractions: Guard Greg Buckner (traded to Mavericks), guard Quentin Richardson (traded to Clippers), forward Darko Milicic (traded to Knicks), center Chris Mihm, (free agent), forward Darius Miles (free agent), Juan Carlos Navarro (free agent), forward Quinton Ross (signed with Mavericks), guard Jerry Stackhouse (free agent), forward Hakim Warrick (signed with Bucks), guard Mike Wilks (free agent).

2009-2010 Memphis Grizzlies Point Guards:

Mike Conley’s sophomore season was more promising than his surface stars – 10.9 points and 4.3 assists per game suggest. After yo-yoing between the starting line-up and bench in the first half, Conley was handed the job under Hollins and responded by averaging 14 points, four rebounds and six assists on 45% shooting the rest of the way.

Coming into the season, two of Conley’s biggest question marks were his durability and his outside shooting, and he answered both affirmatively, playing in all 82 games and shooting 41 % from 3-poim range. The shooting is particularly important with the need to playoff the ball at times with 0.J. Mayo in the creator’s role.

Now the established starter, the next step for Conley is putting his athleticism to better use. Conley’s an unusually low-turnover player for a young point guard, but the downside to his control is that he hasn’t pressured defenses enough. The Grizzlies need Conley to be a more dynamic playmaker.

Behind Conley, veteran Marko Jaric had his worst pro season, shooting a career-low 33% from the floor and putting up the worst turnover rate of a turnover-heavy career. He’ll be passed by somebody, perhaps journeyman Marcus Williams, whose impressive summer-league performance for the Grizzlies earned him a look as back-up point guard.

2009-2010 Memphis Grizzlies Off Guards:

The Rookie of the Year runner-up, 0.J. Mayo averaged 38 minutes a game and played in all 82 as a rookie, so it shouldn’t be a surprise that he couldn’t quite keep up his torrid early scoring pace.

Mayo doesn’t have elite size or athleticism for a pro 2-guard, but does have elite shot-making ability, creating space for his quick-release jumper anywhere on the floor and against any defender. Mayo was turnover-prone as a rookie, but flashed promising playmaking ability, particularly in pick-and­roll situations.

The Grizzlies are hopeful they’ve found a franchise lead guard in the mold of a Chauncey Billups or Brandon Roy. The Grizzlies think they got a second­round steal with Sam Young, and, at age 24, they’re expecting Young to play right away. The rugged former Big East star should be able to defend and make plays on the break, but needs to prove he has the ball-handling ability and shooting range to make the transition from a college forward to a pro guard.

2009-2010 Memphis Grizzlies Small Forwards:

After finishing as the runner-up in the Most Improved Player vote the prior season, Rudy Gay went into a funk midway through his third season, his outside shot off and his declining effort reflected in fewer free-throw attempts.

Gay got back in gear down the stretch (21 points on 54% shooting in April), responding strongly to new coach Hollins, and followed it up with an eye-opening national team camp over the summer.

Despite his tremendous size and athleticism at small forward, Gay has yet to become a disruptive force defensively. But he’s a dynamic scorer both in transition and from the perimeter.

The Grizzlies drafted Missouri’s DeMarre Carroll in the late first round and think he can slide from being a college power forward to backing up Gay at small forward, a transition that Carroll handled well in summer league play. Nicknamed ‘Junkyard Dog’ at Missouri, Carroll’s game is predicated on hustle, unselfishness, and relentless defense, qualities the Grizzlies have lacked since the days of Shane Battier and James Posey.

2009-2010 Memphis Grizzlies Power Forwards:

There’s no denying Zach Randolph’s talent: A wide body with a soft touch, the 28-year­ old power forward is one of the league’s elite post scorers and rebounders. Last season, he averaged 20.8 points and 10.1 rebounds while splitting the season between the Knicks and Clippers – one of only four players to average 20 and 10 last season. It was the third time Randolph has done so in the past six seasons.

That kind of production at power forward addresses an enormous need for the Grizzlies, bur Randolph also comes with questions. On the court, these include poor defense, reluctant passing, sketchy shot selection (nearly 100 three-point attempts in only 50 games last season), and durability (59 missed games over the past three seasons). Off the court, Randolph has a rap sheet as long and troubling as anyone in the league, though the frequency and severity of incidents have both declined since Randolph left Portland two years ago.

After being force fed a starting role as a rookie, Darrell Arthur should be a better fit coming off the bench this season. A little undersized for the position, Arthur needs to keep his rebounding effort at a very high level and improve his mid-range shooting to be a quality player.

2009-2010 Memphis Grizzlies Centers:

Despite his having won the MVP in the Spanish ACB league the prior season, the Grizzlies weren’t quite sure what to expect from Marc Gasol as a rookie. What they got was a tough and tough-minded true center who proved a viable scorer (11.9 points per game on 53% shooting) and rebounder (7.4) right out of the gate.

Gasol’s heady passing, sterling hoops IQ, and taste for physical play (two of those three qualities handed-down from his more talented older brother, former Griz and current Laker star Pau) made his value even greater than his statistical production indicated, with more upside to come as his conditioning improves and the team makes better use of his high-post passing and perimeter shooting.

The presence of Gasol makes the drafting of center Hasheem Thabeet slightly curious, but the mobile Thabeet – a two-time Big East Defensive Player of the Year – projects as the kind of shot-blocking and shot altering force Gasol will never be. The rest of Thabeet’s game is raw, but playing behind Gasol will give him time to develop. Iranian project Hamed Haddadi was surprisingly productive in limited minutes as a rookie, but still doesn’t figure to play much this season.

Memphis Grizzlies 2009-2010 Season Predictions

We predict that the Memphis Grizzlies will finish 1st in the NBA Southwest Division .

Memphis Grizzlies Betting

Memphis Grizzlies NBA Championship Odds: +5000

Memphis Grizzlies Eastern Conference Odds: +15000

Memphis Grizzlies 2008-2009 Betting Stats

Memphis Grizzlies Straight Up: 24-58

Memphis Grizzlies ATS: 38-42-2

Memphis Grizzlies Home ATS: 19-20-2

Memphis Grizzlies Away ATS: 19-22

Memphis Grizzlies Record As Favorite: 7-10

Memphis Grizzlies Record As Dog: 17-48

Memphis Grizzlies Over/Under: 39-43

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