Mavericks vs Thunder | Game 3 Prediction & Pick

Dallas Mavericks at Oklahoma City Thunder

vs.

Money Line: Mavericks +120, Thunder -140
Pointspread: Oklahoma City -3
Over/Under: 196.5

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The Western Conference Finals matchup between the Dallas Mavericks and the Oklahoma City Thunder shifts to the Oklahoma City Arena this Saturday night for Game 3 of this best-of-seven series after the two split the first two games in Dallas. Tip-off is scheduled for 9 p.m. (ET) and the game will be broadcast nationally on ESPN.

Dallas’s chance to take a 2-0 series lead as a five-point home favorite was cut short in a 106-100 loss on Thursday night. This followed an impressive 121-112 victory in the first game of this series as a six-point favorite. The total has gone ‘over’ in both games. It was the Mavericks’ first loss against the spread this postseason as they are now 10-1-1 overall. They are 4-0-1 ATS on the road and the total has gone ‘over’ in eight of their 12 games.

Dirk Nowitzki led Dallas with 29 points, five rebounds, and five assists, but these numbers pale in comparison to his 48 point performance in Game 1. Regardless, he has been lights-out shooting the ball; going a combined 25-for-35 from the field and an amazing 33-for-34 from the foul line. Jason Terry had 24 points off the bench in Tuesday’s win but was held to eight points in Game 2.

The Mavericks shot 53.4 percent from the floor in Game 1, but saw this average drop to 43.8 on Thursday night. The production off the bench dramatically dropped off as well with 29 points verse 53 in the first game.

Oklahoma City’s win in Game 2 moved its postseason record to 7-6-1 ATS with the total moving to 7-6-1 as well. It is now 3-3-1 ATS on the road and 4-3 ATS at home. The total is also 4-3 at home, but three of the last four games have gone ‘over’.

Kevin Durant followed up a 40-point effort in Game 1 with a team-high 24 points on Thursday night. The big story out of Game 2 is the Thunder grabbing this win with its second leading scorer Russell Westbrook spending the fourth quarter on the bench. Head Coach Scott Brooks decided to go with four reserves for much of the final quarter and they delivered as Oklahoma City finished the game with 50 points off bench.

The Thunder shot 55.7 percent from the floor and for the second game in-a-row eclipsed the 100-point mark against a Dallas defense that was holding its opponents to an average of 88 points a game. Oklahoma City shot 38.9 percent from three-point range and went 21-for-26 from the foul line. It had a 29-23 advantage over the Mavs in defensive rebounds.

Head-to-head, the Mavericks won two of three straight-up in the regular season and were 2-1 ATS. The total went ‘over’ in two of the three games. Dating back to the 2009-2010 season, Dallas is 3-1 both straight-up and ATS on the road against the Thunder.

The odds makers have the Oklahoma City Thunder  as a -3 point favorite with an over/under of 196.5.

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Prediction: This is a golden opportunity for Oklahoma City to grab the edge is this series as a three-point favorite, but stick with the Mavericks in this one as Nowitzki finds a way to pull out the win.

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Dallas Mavericks Betting Trends:

• The total has gone OVER in 6 of Dallas’s last 7 games
• Dallas is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games
• Dallas is 5-0-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
• Dallas is 17-8 SU in its last 25 games on the road

Oklahoma City Thunder Betting Trends:

• The total has gone OVER in 4 of Oklahoma City’s last 6 games
• Oklahoma City is 14-6 SU in its last 20 games
• Oklahoma City is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home
• The total has gone OVER in 5 of Oklahoma City’s last 6 games when playing Dallas