NBA Free Pick – Friday, January 14, 2011
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Dallas Mavericks (26-11) vs San Antonio Spurs (33-6)
Friday, January 14, 2011 at 8:00 pm EST on ESPN
Last meeting: San Antonio beat Dallas 99-93 in Big D just before the New Year.
With their star forward Dirk Nowitzki hurting the Mavs have struggled to maintain their earlier pace which was just a hair behind the Spurs in the early going. Dirk is questionable for this prime time game and Dallas will be hardpressed to beat the team with the best record in the league on the road without him even though they have changed their identity to a more defensive style this season. Dallas enters San Antonio with a three game losing streak and they have won only 2 of their last 8. Over the past 10 the Mavs have only covered when they win, it seems that Vegas may be underestimating how important Dirk is to the team’s success. The longer he is out the sharper those numbers should get…in theory.
Check out the latest NBA Basketball Odds here.
San Antonio is still humming along although they are no longer on record pace any more – by my calculations. What is amazing about this season is that they are one of the higher scoring teams in the league (5th) even though they are actively managing the minutes of their key players. They currently have 5 players averaging double digits and another 4 averaging more than 7ppg. They are distancing themselves from the pack by using a very deep roster and everyone is performing. This helps them through the long grind of the season and they should be well rested come playoff time. The Spurs played Wednesday night winning at Milwaukee and come home on a 4 game winning streak. San Antonio is 20-2 at home (just 12-10 ATS) so beating them without Dirk is a real long shot.
The current line on this one is San Antonio Spurs -10.
Prediction: For the Mavs the key is always Dirk. If he is healthy and effective than they have a chance but if not it is going to be hard to beat the Spurs on the road. In this case I don’t think it will matter. San Antonio will win increasing their gap in the Southwest division.
Score: San Antonio 97 – Dallas 89
Dallas Mavericks Betting Trends
- Mavericks are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
- Mavericks are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. NBA Southwest.
- Mavericks are 16-4-1 ATS in their last 21 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
San Antonio Spurs Betting Trends:
- Spurs are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
- Spurs are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- Spurs are 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.
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