NBA Free Pick – Monday, January 17, 2011
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Sacramento Kings @ Atlanta Hawks
Monday, January 17, 2011 at 4:00 pm EST on NBA TV
Pointspread: Hawks -9 ½
Over/Under: 200 ½
This Martin Luther King Jr. Holiday NBA matinee features the Sacramento Kings paying a visit to the East Coast to take on the Atlanta Hawks. Tip-off from Philips Arena is set for 4 p.m. and the game will be broadcast nationally on NBA TV.
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Sacramento has won four of its last 10 games but still remains the worst team in the Western Conference with an overall record of 9-29 straight-up. The Kings have been almost as bad against the spread with a record of 14-23-1. They did beat New York 93-83 this past Friday as an 8 ½-point road underdog, but followed it up with a 110-106 loss to Detroit as a 4 ½-point road underdog on Saturday. This will be the final game of a six-game road trip before heading back home to play Portland on Wednesday night.
One of the lone bright spots for Sacramento this season has been the play of second-year guard Tyreke Evans and rookie center DeMarcus Cousins. Evans leads the team with 17.2 points and 5.5 assists per game, while Cousins is averaging a team-high 7.7 rebounds and 12.8 points per game. If you add third-year player Carl Landry to the mix, this team actually a fairly solid nucleus of young talent.
The Kings are 19th in the league in scoring with 97 points per game, but are giving up an average of 102.8 points per game which rank them 22nd. They are ranked seventh in rebounding with 43 per game and have a slight edge over their opponents, who are averaging 42.2. Sacramento’s 44 percent shooting percentage from the floor remains one of the worst in the league.
Atlanta got off to a great start this season, but now finds itself in an uphill battle in its quest to hang with Miami in the Southeast Division. Despite a 112-106 loss to Houston as an 8 ½-point home favorite their last time out, the Hawks have won seven of their last 10 games. They still trail the Heat by 3 ½-games with an overall record of 26-15 (19-22 ATS) and are in fifth-place in the Eastern Conference.
The Hawks have a very balanced offensive attack with four players averaging over 16 points a game. Joe Johnson leads the way with 19.2 points and 5.4 assists and Al Horford is second with 16.3 points and a team-high 9.7 rebounds per game. Josh Smith is averaging 16 points and 8.8 rebounds, while Jamal Crawford is averaging 16.3 points off the bench.
Atlanta is ranked just above the Kings in scoring with an average of 98 points per game, but are ranked eighth in points allowed; giving up an average of 95.3. As a team it is shooting 46.9 percent from the floor and 37.3 percent from three point range. The Hawks are ranked 24th in rebounding with an average of just 40.3 boards per game.
Sacramento is 4-2 ATS in its last six road games and 5-1 ATS in its last six games overall. The total has gone ‘over’ in seven of its last 10 games.
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Atlanta is 4-1 ATS in its last five games at home and 4-2 ATS in its last six games overall. The total has gone ‘over’ in six of its last seven games.
Head-to-head, the Hawks have won seven of the last eight games SU and are 6-2 ATS. The total has gone ‘over’ in six of the last seven meetings.
The best bet in this matchup is probably the ‘over’ given each team’s recent trends as well as their past history against one another. While 9 ½-points is a healthy spread even for Sacramento, stick with Atlanta to cover against the road-weary Kings.
The odds makers have the Atlanta Hawks as a -9.5 point favorite with an over/under of 200.5.
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Atlanta Hawks Betting Trends:
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Atlanta’s last 7 games
Atlanta is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
Atlanta is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games at home
Atlanta is 7-14 ATS in its last 21 games at home
Sacramento Kings Betting Trends:
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Sacramento’s last 7 games
Sacramento is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Sacramento’s last 5 games on the road
Sacramento is 1-13 SU in its last 14 games on the road
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