Jazz vs Spurs| Prediction & Pick

Utah Jazz vs San Antonio Spurs – NBA Free Pick – Saturday April 9, 2011

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Utah Jazz at San Antonio Spurs
Saturday, April 9, 2011 at 8:30 pm EST on NBA TV

Pointspread: San Antonio -12
Over/Under: 200

The Utah Jazz will try and avoid a season-sweep at the hands of the San Antonio Spurs when the two teams clash on Saturday night at the AT&T Center for the third time this year. Tip-off is set for 8:30 p.m. (ET) and the game will be broadcast nationally on NBA.TV.

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Utah has been riding out the string over the past few weeks with just one win in its last 10 games. It is coming off a 98-87 loss to Portland on Thursday as a 5 ½-point home underdog after pulling off a rare 86-85 upset of the LA Lakers as a 13 ½-point road underdog this past Tuesday. The Jazz are 37-42 straight-up overall and 32-45-2 against the spread.

There has been little for Utah fans to cheer about this season, but you cannot fault the effort of Al Jefferson and Paul Millsap. Jefferson leads the team with 18.7 points and 9.7 rebounds and Millsap is second in both categories with 17.4 points and 7.7 rebounds. Devin Harris has also done a good job since coming over from New Jersey with 15.4 points and 5.1 assists a game.

Utah is ranked 15th in the NBA in scoring with 99.4 points a game, but has struggled a bit on defense; giving up an average of 101.4 points. The Jazz are shooting 46.3 percent from the field and 34.4 percent from three-point range while pulling down an average of 39.7 rebounds a game.

San Antonio officially clinched the top spot in the Western Conference with a 97-90 victory over Atlanta this past Tuesday as a six-point road favorite followed by a 124-92 rout of Sacramento as a 10 ½-point home favorite on Wednesday. The Spurs are 60-19 SU on the year and 44-33-2 ATS with three games left to play.

The big three for San Antonio all season long have been Manu Ginobili, Tony Parker, and Tim Duncan. Ginobili and Parker are each averaging 17.7 points a game and Duncan leads the team with nine rebounds a game while adding 13.4 points. Richard Jefferson and George Hill have also been key contributors with double-digit scoring averages.

The Spurs are averaging 103.7 points a game and holding their opponents to 97.8 points for one of the best scoring differentials in the NBA. They are shooting 47.6 percent from the field, which is the fourth-best average in the league and the lead the NBA from three-point range; converting of 40 percent of their attempts.

Utah is 2-2-1 ATS in its last five road games but just 1-5 ATS in its last six games overall. The total has stayed ‘under’ in eight of its last nine games.
San Antonio is 3-2 ATS in its last five games at home and 3-0 ATS in its last three games overall. The total has gone ‘over’ in eight of its last nine games.

Head-to-head, the Jazz have won four of the last six games SU, but lost to the Spurs 94-82 on Nov.19 as a two-point home favorite and 112-105 as a 3 ½-point road underdog on Jan.26. The total has gone ‘over’ in three of the last four meetings.

The odds makers have the San Antonio Spurs as a -12 point favorite with an over/under of 200.

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Prediction: While there is nothing on the line in this game for Utah other than pride, the Spurs are still playing for the best overall record in the NBA which would ensure home-field advantage all the way through the finals if they make it that far. That being said, stick with San Antonio and give the 12 points in this one.

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