NBA Free Pick – Friday February 4, 2011
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Utah Jazz (29-21) vs. Denver Nuggets (29-20)
February 4, 2011 at 10:30 pm EST on ESPN
Last meeting: Utah and Denver opened the season with the Nuggets feasting on the Jazz 110-88.
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This is a key divisional battle between teams that seem destined for the playoffs. However, if they want to get there, the Jazz should start playing better basketball as they have won only 2 o ftheir last 10 and enter this one off of a loss against Houston by a point. PG Deron Williams is a stud and they are getting good production from their starters but it just hasn’t been enough. A lot of those losses weren’t even close and this run began with ugly defeats at Washington and New Jersey. The Jazz have really disappointed this year with an ATS record of just 22-27-1. They have especially been a bad bet of late going 2-8 ATS during their recent run of poor play. A visit to the Mile High City isn’t advised as the Nuggets are tough at home and looking to avenge their playoff loss to the Jazz as well.
The rumours keep swirling for the Nuggets and Carmelo Anthony keeps putting up great numbers. Melo has scored more than 33 points in four of the last 10 and on the season is putting up the best rebounding numbers of his career this season. When he gets help the Nuggets are very difficult to beat and this team is a monster at home where its shooters like J.R. Smith feel most comfortable (21-5 SU). Even with that lofty record they are only a 50/50 proposition ATS. Their success makes finding value at home difficult but this might be a spot given that Utah has had some success at Denver in the past. However, I fear that that value might be taken out given the Jazz recent struggles so even though I think Denver will win this might be one to pass on.
The odds makers have the Denver Nuggets as a -10 point favorite with an over/under of 207.
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Prediction: Denver will win relatively easily behind another supreme performance by Melo. Deron Williams will do his best but the game will be in hand well before the conclusion.
Score: Denver 102 – Utah 94
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Utah Jazz Betting Trends:
- Utah is 2-8 SU in its last 10 games
- Utah is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games
- The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Utah’s last 5 games
- Utah is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Denver Nuggets Betting Trends:
- The total has gone OVER in 6 of Denver’s last 7 games
- Denver is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
- Denver is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home
- Denver is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Utah
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