Heat vs Warriors | Prediction & Pick

NBA Free Pick – Friday, December 10, 2010

vs.

Miami Heat (15-8) vs. Golden State Warriors (8-14)
Friday, December 10, 2010 at 10:30 pm EST on ESPN

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Last meeting: These teams have not met this season.

If one thing has become clear with the Heat it is that you never know what you are going to get from game to game.  Case in point, their 13 point victory (as a 1 point fave) in Utah on Wednesday night where they dominated in the 4th quarter which might have been payback for the way the Jazz humiliated them by coming back from a 20+ point deficit earlier in the season.  Wednesday’s win evened their road record at 5-5 illustrating this talented team’s inability to put it all together just yet.  They enter the contest on a six game winning streak as they try and catch up to the elite in the Eastern Conference.

The Warriors were off to a decent start but they have lost five in row and 10 of 11.  All but one of those games have been against the West so maybe a visitor from the East coast is just what the doctor ordered.  Golden State has new leadership but not much has really changed in terms of style this year.  They are among the highest scoring teams in the NBA but still do not defend very well.  I like the backcourt of Monta Ellis and Stephen Curry.  They can score with pretty much any other guard combo in the league but neither is a great defender and they give up size more often than not.  The biggest challenge for the Warriors against the Heat is that they don’t match up well defensively with elite wing players like Dwayne Wade and LeBron James.  Ellis is too small and the rest of their lineup doesn’t have the skills.

The current line on this one is Miami -9.  Not great value here either way.

Prediction: If Golden State is hot from deep they can beat anybody.  That being said the Heat can beat you in a variety of ways and have the kind of elite offensive talent teams that teams uncommited to defense have a hard time beating.  Miami should continue their winning ways.

Score:  Miami 99 – Golden State 92

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Miami Heat Betting Trends

• Heat are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite.
• Heat are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. win.
• Heat are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS win.
• Heat are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a SU win of more than 10 points.

Golden State Warriors Betting Trends

• Warriors are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 Friday games.
• Warriors are 35-13-4 ATS in their last 52 games as a home underdog of 5.0-10.5.
• Warriors are 17-7-1 ATS in their last 25 games following a S.U. loss.