NBA Finals Betting Preview- Game 3
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vs.
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Miami Heat at Dallas Mavericks
Sunday, June 8, 2011 at 8:00 pm EST on ABC
Pointspread: Dallas -3
Money Line: Heat +125, Mavericks -145
Over/Under: 187
The 2011 NBA Finals shift from the American Airlines Arena in Miami to the American Airlines Center in Dallas this upcoming Sunday for Game 3 between the Heat and the Mavericks in this best-of-seven series that is knotted at one game apiece. Tip-off is set for 8 p.m. (ET) and the game will be broadcast nationally on ABC.
We have ourselves a series after a dramatic 15-point comeback by Dallas in the final seven minutes of Thursday night’s Game 2 results in a 95-93 Miami loss as a 4.5 home favorite. The total ended as a ‘push’ against a closing line of 188 points. This was the Heat’s first loss at home in the playoffs after nine straight wins. They are 4-3 on the road both straight-up and against the spread and the total has stayed ‘under’ in four of the seven games.
Miami was sitting on a 15-point lead with a little over seven minutes to play in Game 2, but could do little to stop a 22-5 run by the Mavericks that turned a dominating 2-0 lead into this series into a best-of-five with Dallas holding the home-court advantage. Dwyane Wade led the Heat with 36 points and LeBron James added 20 points, but they could not hit the shots down the stretch to put this game away.
This series is coming down to a battle of the boards as Miami won the first round 46-36, but was outrebounded 41-30 in Thursday’s meltdown. Points off the bench have also been a factor as the Heat got 28 points from their reserves in Tuesday’s game but just 11 in Game 2.
Dallas’s series-saving rally raised its overall record in the playoffs to 13-4 SU and a very profitable 13-3-1 ATS. It is 7-1 SU at home this postseason and 6-2 ATS. The total has gone ‘over’ in five of its eight home games and is 9-7-1 overall.
The Heat now realize that you can only hope to contain Dirk Nowitzki as there is no way to shut him down. He scored a game-high 27 points in a losing effort in Game 1 and single-handedly willed his team to a victory in Game 2 with 24 points including the Mavs’ final nine of the game. Shawn Marion also came up big on Thursday with 20 points and eight rebounds and Jason Terry turned in another strong effort off the bench with 16 points and five assists.
Dallas shot just 37.3 percent from the floor in Game 1, but went 36-for-75 on Thursday night. Another key was its performance from the free-throw line; converting on 81 percent of its attempts. The biggest reason this series is now tied is the Mavericks’ ‘never-say-die’ approach to the game which was not case with the Heat’s last two opponents in the playoffs.
The odds makers have the Dallas Mavericks as a -3 point favorite with an over/under of 187.
Check out the latest NBA Basketball Playoff Odds here.
Prediction: Game 3 hinges on Miami’s ability to quickly put Thursday’s collapse behind verse Dallas’s ability to capitalize on this huge shift in momentum. The strongest play in Sunday’s game could be the ‘under’ as defense will continue to be the top priority for both teams, but stick with Nowitzki and the Mavs to use the home court to its full advantage to grab the 2-1 edge in this series.
Need more help making your picks winners? Check out our top handicappers.
Miami Heat Betting Trends:
- Miami is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
- Miami is 9-3 SU in its last 12 games on the road
- The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Miami’s last 6 games on the road
- Miami is 1-11 SU in its last 12 games when playing Dallas
Dallas Mavericks Betting Trends:
- Dallas is 17-3-1 ATS in its last 21 games
- Dallas is 11-2 SU in its last 13 games
- The total has gone OVER in 4 of Dallas’s last 5 games at home
- Dallas is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games at home
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