NBA Free Pick – Saturday, January 15, 2011
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Miami Heat @ Chicago Bulls
NBA Free Pick – Saturday, January 15, 2011
The Miami Heat will look to end a two-game slide when they head into the United Center this Saturday night to take on the Chicago Bulls in a showdown between two of the best teams in the Eastern Conference. Tip-off is set for 8 p.m. (ET) and the game will be broadcast on NBA TV.
For awhile it appeared that Miami had things on cruise control with 21 wins in a 22-game stretch, but the Heat suddenly hit a bump in the road with a 111-105 loss to the LA Clippers as a seven-point road favorite on Wednesday night followed by a 130-102 thumping at the hands of Denver as a 1 ½-point road underdog on Thursday.
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These rare losses dropped their record to 30-11 straight-up and 20-21 against the spread. Miami still has a 3 ½-game lead over Atlanta in the Southeast Division but fell a half game behind Boston in the Eastern Conference on a percentage basis.
LeBron James sat out the Nuggets game with a slightly tweaked ankle and remains day-to-day for this game. His team-high 25.4 points and 7.2 assists per game were obviously missed in the Heat’s most lopsided loss of the season. Dwyane Wade is second in scoring with 24.9 points per game and Chris Bosh is the leading rebounder with 8.3 per game while averaging 18.7 points to round-out Miami’s big three.
The Heat are ranked 10th in the league in scoring with an average of 101.8 points per game and are second in shooting percentage; hitting 47.3 percent of their shots from the field. Their defense remains extremely solid as they are ranked fourth in points allowed; giving up just 93.6 per game. Miami also has the edge in rebounds averaging 43 a game while holding its opponents to 40.
Chicago has won seven of its last 10 games heading into tonight’s game against Indiana. The Bulls currently have an eight game lead over the Pacers in the Central Division but need to be careful to not overlook this game in anticipation of the Heat coming to town. That will most likely not be the case after they dropped a 96-91 decision to Charlotte as a three-point road favorite their last time out.
Wednesday’s loss leaves Chicago at 25-13 SU and 21-16-1 ATS on the year. It is currently tied with Atlanta for third place in the East. This team still begins and ends with the play of Derrick Rose and Carlos Boozer. Rose leads the team with 24.1 points and 8.1 assists, while Boozer is averaging 20.7 points and 10.3 rebounds. Along with Luol Deng, these two have done a great job of picking up the slack under the boards in the absence of Jaokim Noah, who will be out until mid-February with a thumb injury.
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The Bulls are averaging 99 points per game and giving up an average 93.6, but their real advantage this season has been in rebounds. They are pulling down an average 44 rebounds per game which is third best in the league and have a +4.21 advantage over their opponents which is tops in the NBA.
Miami is 4-3 ATS in its last seven road games and 1-3 ATS in its last four games overall. The total has gone ‘over’ in its last five games.
Chicago is 4-2 ATS in its last six games at home but just 3-5 ATS in its last eight games overall. The total has gone ‘over’ in five of its last seven games.
Head-to-head, the Heat have won seven of the last nine games SU and 3-1 ATS in the last four, but this will be the first meeting this season. The total has stayed ‘under’ in four of the last five meetings.
The opening line on this game will depend on the status of LeBron James, who should be able to go but will most likely be a game-time decision. With him in the lineup, Miami could actually be a one or two point road favorite but still a good pick to snap its current losing streak.
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