Hawks vs Bulls | Game 1 Prediction & Pick

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Atlanta Hawks at Chicago Bulls
Monday, May 2, 2011 at 8:00 pm EST on TNT

Point spread: Chicago – 8.5
Money Line: Hawks +350 / Bulls -450
Over/Under: 178

The second of two Eastern Conference semifinal matchups gets underway tonight when the Atlanta Hawks square-off against the Chicago Bulls in Game 1 of their best-of-seven series. Tip-off from the United Center in Chicago is set for 8 p.m. (ET) and the game will be broadcast nationally on TNT.

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Atlanta jumped out to 3-1 start in its first round series against Orlando including a 103-93 win in Game 1 as an 8 ½-point road underdog. The Hawks clinched the series with an 84-81 victory in Game 6 last Thursday night as a 1 ½-point home underdog. They were the underdog in all six games and the total stayed ‘under’ in five of them.

Jamal Crawford led the team in scoring against the Magic with 20.5 points a game and Al Horford was the leading rebounder with 10.2. Atlanta will need to find a way to replace starting guard Kirk Hinrich, who is out of this series with a strained hamstring. He was averaging 10.2 points a game, but will be primarily missed for his defensive play.

The Hawks averaged just 86.8 points a game and shot 42.6 percent from the field against Orlando which was far less than its 95.2 points and 46 percent shooting percentage in the regular season. They were also out rebounded by the Magic 42.3 to 38.5, but were still able to make plays when they had to the most. Regardless, Atlanta will have to improve its game in all of these categories to have any chance against the Bulls.

Chicago rolled through its opening round series against Indiana in five games, but won three of those games by a combined 15 points. It blew out the Pacers 116-89 in Game 5 as an 8 ½-point home favorite in one of two games that went ‘over’ the total.

Derrick Rose had a huge series for the Bulls with an average of 27.6 points, 4.6 rebounds, and 6.2 assists a game. Luol Deng was the second leading scorer with 18.6 points and Joakim Noah led the team in rebounds with 10.6 a game. Chicago is counting on Carlos Boozer to step things up in this series after averaging just 10 points a game against Indiana. He injured his toe in Game 5, but is listed as probable for tonight.

Chicago held the Pacers to 90.2 points a game which was even better than its 91.3 point average in the regular season. The Bulls shot just 41.5 percent from the field and 35.2 percent from three-point range, but completed 81.3 percent of their attempts from the foul-line. They completely controlled the boards against Indiana with a 46.4 to 38.4 edge in rebounds.

Atlanta is 2-4 against the spread in its last six road games but is 5-1 ATS in its last six games overall. The total has stayed ‘under’ in eight of its last nine games.

Chicago is 2-3 ATS in its last five games at home and 2-4 ATS in its last six games overall. The total has stayed ‘under’ in seven of its last 10 games.

Head-to-head, the Bulls won two of three games this season both straight-up and ATS with the total staying ‘under’ in two of them. Chicago is 2-3 both SU and ATS in the last five games against the Hawks at home.

The odds makers have the Chicago Bulls as a -8.5 point favorite with an over/under of 178.

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Prediction: This time around look for the Bulls to gain the early edge in the series with an outright win, but take Atlanta to cover with the 8 ½-points in a game that stays ‘under’ the total.

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Chicago Bulls Betting Trends:

• Chicago is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
• The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Chicago’s last 11 games
• Chicago is 13-1 SU in its last 14 games
• Chicago is 2-7 ATS in its last 9 games at home

Atlanta Hawks Betting Trends:

• Atlanta is 4-8 SU in its last 12 games
• Atlanta is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
• The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Atlanta’s last 5 games
• The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Atlanta’s last 5 games on the road