Denver Nuggets 2010 Season Preview, Predictions Picks & Odds
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Denver Nuggets 2009-2010 NBA Record: 53-29, 1st in Northwest Division
Denver Nuggets Betting Trends & Betting Angles:
• 2-12-2 ATS past 16 games on no rest
• 8-1 SU, 6-2-1 ATS past 9 at Minnesota
• 5-1 SU, D-6 ATS past 6 at home to TWolves
• 8-1 SU past 9 at home to Oklahoma City
• 18-2 SU, 15-5 ATS past 20 at home to Portland
• 4-16 SU past 20 games at Utah
• OVER is 8-2 past 10 at home to Utah
Denver Nuggets 2010 Preview & Prediction
It looks like one last hurrah for the core of a team that has made seven straight playoff appearances. The entire NBA faces uncertainty a year from now because of the brewing labor storm, but few teams more than the Nuggets, who could go from luxury tax territory to room beneath the salary cap, depending on how the contracts of several veterans are resolved. The big drama of the summer was whether Carmelo Anthony would accept the Nuggets’ offer of a three year, $65 million contract extension. On top of his $18.5 million player option for 2011-12, which would lead into the new agreement, the money might well be better than Anthony will be able to do in free agency under terms of a new collective bargaining agreement. Still, with three of his pals from the 2003 draft class manipulating free agency to play together in Miami, it was understandable that Anthony would look at his options. Nuggets fans were not comforted when Hornets guard Chris Paul, attending Melo’s New York wedding in July, suggested the two of them could join Amar’e Stoudemire with the Knicks to make their own Big Three. The problem is that Paul can’t be free until 2012, and no one knows what the labor rules will look like then. Anthony wasn’t the only one looking at potential free agency in 2011. Kenyon Martin, coming off yet another knee surgery, is entering the last year of his contract. So is sixth man J.R. Smith. And so is veteran point guard Chauncey Billups, unless the Nuggets pick up their $14 million team option on 2011-12. Even Nene has a player option for that year. In theory, everyone of these players could be afree agent next July 1, which also happens to be the likely date of a league lockout designed to reduce player salaries across the board. In the midst of these considerations, the team was dealing with coach George Karl’s battle against throat and neck cancer, which caused him to miss the stretch run of last season. Karl showed up at the Las Vegas Summer League about 40 pounds lighter but vowing to return as long as he passes the necessary medical tests. With Martin’s return date from his latest surgery unknown, the Nuggets knew they needed frontcourt help. They made overtures to Golden State for center Andris Biedrins, but the Warriors didn’t bite. They offered their full mid-level salary cap exception to free agents Jermaine O’Neal and Udonis Haslem, but they chose Boston and Miami, respectively. Finally, with talent on the free agent market dwindling, they offered their mid-level exception to Al Harrington, who saw the opening at power forward and grabbed it.
Denver Nuggets Coach: George Karl (7th season)
Denver Nuggets Projected Starters: PG Chauncey Billups, SG Arron Afflalo, SF Carmelo Anthony, PF Al Harrington, C Nene Hilario.
Denver Nuggets Key Additions: F Al Harrington, F Shelden Williams.
Denver Nuggets Key Losses: None.
2010 Denver Nuggets Point Guards:
Chauncey Billups has played very well in his two-plus seasons in Denver, earning two All-Star selections and a berth on the 2009 All-NBA Third Team, but he showed signs of wearing down last year: he shot just .381 from the field in March and April. Billups uses his size and savvy to good effect but sometimes he can have trouble keeping younger, quicker point guards in front of him. Billups will turn 34 before the season begins and he will soon move past the 30,000 minute mark for his career, so his days as a top level point guard are numbered. Ty Lawson provided great energy off of the bench during his rookie season, pushing the ball up the court and changing the tempo from Billups’ more deliberate ways. Lawson’s minutes will likely increase. Anthony Carter is a reliable veteran who can be effective in limited duty.
2010 Denver Nuggets Off Guards:
Arron Affialo claimed the starting spot here due to his tenacity and excellent threepoint shooting, though sixth man J.R. Smith actually averaged slightly more mpg. Affialo ranked eighth in the NBA in three-point field goal percentage and nailed 108 treys, more than twice as many as he made in the first two seasons of his career combined. Affialo’s numbers were up across the board and he seems to have found a home in Denver after receiving limited minutes in Detroit. Smith is a more explosive and dynamic player than Afflalo but the Nuggets’ rotation works better with the defensive-minded Afflalo playing alongside several high scoring starters while Smith provides offensive punch for the second unit. Smith established new career highs for field goals attempted and three point field goals attempted, undeterred that his shooting percentages from both ranges declined for the second straight year, reaching their lowest levels since the 2005-06 season. When Smith gets ready to launch a shot both teams get worried, because he can shoot either team out of the game.
2010 Denver Nuggets Small Forwards:
Carmelo Anthony has averaged at least 20.8 ppg in each of his seven NBA seasons and last season’s 28.2 ppg output is the second best of his career. However, his threepoint shooting percentage (.316) declined to its lowest point since 2006-07, a number that is even more disturbing considering that Anthony attempted more three-pointers than any season except for his rookie campaign and that his rebounding declined for the second straight season; the Nuggets are better served when Anthony aggressively goes to the hoop. Anthony has proven that he can be a decent defender when he sets his mind to it and he has performed much better in the past two postseasons than he did earlier in his playoff career but, as good as he is, he is simply one level below the truly elite, All-NBA First Team caliber wing players such as Kobe Bryant, LeBron James and Dwyane Wade. Newly acquired Al Harrington will likely split time between the small forward and power forward positions. Harrington is a big-time scorer who can create his own shot. Renaldo Balkman is a good athlete and a tenacious defender but he has a limited offensive skill set.
2010 Denver Nuggets Power Forwards:
During an injury-hit 2009-10 season, Kenyon Martin posted his best rpg average (9.4) since 2006-07. Martin is a good defender who provides a physical presence but his offensive limitations and brittleness are significant drawbacks. Chris Andersen, better known as the “Birdman,” is an energetic player and an excellent shot blocker but his offensive repertoire is strictly limited to dunks and putbacks. Martin and Andersen are each recovering from offseason knee surgery. Harrington can use his mobility to good effect offensively versus most power forwards but he will be overmatched defensively and on the boards. Shelden Williams will provide rebounding and toughness in limited minutes.
2010 Denver Nuggets Centers:
Nene is an excellent scorer on the block, ranking second in the NBA in field goal percentage (.604) in 2008-09 and third (.587) in 2009-10; he is strong, explosive and quick, so it is surprising that he is not a better rebounder and shotblocker. From 2004-08 he missed a lot of games due to various injuries/health issues, but he started all 82 games last season and played in 77 games in 2008-09. Andersen will serve as Nene’s primary backup. The Nuggets do not have a lot of depth here and will probably have to use some “small” lineups with one of their power forwards serving as a de facto center.
2010 Denver Nuggets Schedule | 2010 Northwest Division Preview 2010 Western Conference Preview | Denver Nuggets Sportsbooks |
Denver Nuggets 2010 Season Predictions
We predict that the Denver Nuggets will finish 4th in the NBA Northwest Division .
Denver Nuggets Betting
Denver Nuggets NBA Championship Odds: +3000
Denver Nuggets Eastern Conference Odds: +1200
Denver Nuggets 2009-2010 Betting Stats
Denver Nuggets Straight Up: 53-29
Denver Nuggets ATS: 34-42-6
Denver Nuggets Home ATS: 19-21-1
Denver Nuggets Away ATS: 15-21-5
Denver Nuggets Record As Favorite: 44-17
Denver Nuggets Record As Dog: 9-12
Denver Nuggets Over/Under: 38-44
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