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Dallas Mavericks vs Miami Heat Pick
After a resounding comeback win in Game 5 of the NBA Finals, the Dallas Mavericks head to Miami for the final two games leading the series 3-2, just one game away from hoisting the Larry O’Brien Trophy for the first time in franchise history.
Date/Time: Sunday, June 12, 8:00 P.M. ET
Venue: American Airlines Center in Miami FL.
Broadcast: ABC
Dallas Mavericks at Miami Heat Betting Lines
Money Line: Miami -255, Dallas +215
Spread: Miami -5 ½
Over/Under: 187
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The Dallas Mavericks should have their heads held high after their 112-103 victory over the Miami Heat in Game 5 of the NBA Finals.
The Mavericks ended the game on a 15-3 run to close out the game and force Miami to either defend its home court or go home with nothing to show for their playoff run.
Dallas ended the game shooting 57.9 percent from the floor, and nearly 70 percent during the first half.
Dirk Nowitzki scored 29 while leading Dallas to their third fourth-quarter comeback in as many wins in these NBA Finals after playing game four with a fever of 101.
JJ Barea scored 17 for the Mavericks getting the nod to start on 6-11 shooting, and Jason Terry came off the bench to score 21 on 8-12 shooting including 3-5 from the arc.
In all, Miami’s bench outscored Dallas’ bench 40-32, but Miami’s starters were the ones who threw the game for Miami–mainly Lebron James.
In the fourth quarter this series, James is averaging just 2.2 points, compared to his 8.2 in the Eastern Conference Finals. If Miami has a chance to win out the last two games of the series it will be because James steps up in the fourth quarter, when it really matters.
James did go for a triple-double, and Dwayne Wade scored 25 on 6-12 shooting and eight assists.
The fourth quarter has been trouble for Miami the entire series, giving up the lead in their three losses to Dallas, but Miami has shown throughout the series that they can outscore Dallas when they are rolling on all cylinders. Miami stormed out of the gate at the beginning of the fourth quarter with a 9-0 run, all inside scoring or free throws, but couldn’t hold onto the lead.
James has been a major letdown throughout the series, with atrocious streaks that have the rest of his team fighting to stay afloat.
In Games 4 and 5 combined, James has scored just two points in the fourth quarter collectively.
In contrast, Nowitzki has scored at least eight points in the fourth period in every game during these Finals.
The outside shooting was the nail in the coffin for Dallas, making four shots from more than 15-plus feet, and only two in the paint during their final quarter domination Thursday night. Miami on the other hand only made 1-5 from the same range.
The odds makers have the Miami Heat as a -5.5 point favorite with an over/under of 187.
Matt’s Free Prediction: Dallas – The Mavericks are surely on their high horse right now. Expect Dirk to lead his team to a victory and win the series. James has shown time again the he can’t show up in the fourth, and Nowitzki has shown the opposite–that he lives for the fourth quarter.
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Dallas Mavericks Betting Trends:
- Dallas is 18-4-2 ATS in its last 24 games
- The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Dallas’s last 6 games
- Dallas is 13-3 SU in its last 16 games
- Dallas is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Miami Heat Betting Trends:
- Miami is 6-2-1 ATS in its last 9 games
- The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Miami’s last 6 games
- Miami is 18-6 SU in its last 24 games
- The total has gone OVER in 6 of Miami’s last 8 games at home
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