NBA Finals Betting Preview- Dallas Mavericks at Miami Heat Game 1
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Pointspread: Miami -4.5
Money Line: Dallas +170, Miami -200
Over/Under: 187
The 2011 NBA Finals get underway Tuesday night when the Dallas Mavericks and the Miami Heat square-off in Game 1 of this best-of-seven championship series. Tip-off is set for 9 p.m. (ET) and the game will be broadcast nationally on ABC.
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Dallas comes into this series well-rested after taking out Oklahoma City in five games in the Western Conference Finals. The clincher was a 100-96 victory last Wednesday as a 6 ½-point home favorite. The total stayed ‘under’ the 198 ½-point line. The Mavericks are 12-3 straight-up in the playoffs and have been profitable at 12-2-1 against the spread. Dallas is 5-2 SU on the road and 6-0-1 ATS. The total has gone ‘over’ in nine of its 15 games overall and in four of its seven road games.
The Mavs chances in this game could hinge of a fast start by it biggest weapon, Dirk Nowitzki. He is the main reason this team is in the Finals after averaging 28.4 points, 7.5 rebounds, and 2.7 assists a game while shooting 51.7 percent from the floor. Jason Terry has led the scoring off the bench with 17.3 points and 3.2 assists a game and Jason Kidd has been able to successfully direct the offense with a team-high 7.7 assists a game.
Dallas is averaging 99.7 points a game this postseason and has a 7.14 points-per-game advantage over its previous opponents. It is shooting 46.3 percent from the field and 38.8 percent from three-point range.
Miami ended all three of its playoff series in five games with wins over Philadelphia, Boston, and the No.1 seed Chicago Bulls. The Heat are also 12-3 SU this postseason and are 10-5 ATS. They are a perfect 8-0 SU at home and 6-2 ATS. The total has gone ‘over’ in nine of the 15 games overall and has gone ‘over’ in six of its eight home games.
LeBron James has been the story for Miami this postseason, especially in the series against the Bulls. He is putting up an average of 26 points a game to go along with 8.9 rebounds and 5.5 assists. The Heat will need a better effort from Dwyane Wade in this series after basically being a non-factor against the Bulls. He is still averaging 23.7 points, 7.2 rebounds, and 4.1 assists a game. Chris Bosh rounds out Miami’s ‘Big Three’ with 18.6 points and 8.9 rebounds. These three have accounted for close to 74 percent of the team’s points and 60 percent of the rebounds in these playoffs.
The Heat have outscored their opponents by an average of 4.66 points but are averaging 92.9 points a game. They have only scored 100 or more points three times in their 15 playoff games. Miami is shooting 44.3 percent from the field and 32.2 percent from three-point range. It is hitting 80 percent of its attempts from the free-throw line and pulling down an average of 42.1 rebounds a game.
Head-to-head, these teams met twice this season with the Mavs winning both to extend a winning streak that dates back to 2007 to 10 games. They won 106-95 in late November as a 2 ½-point home favorite and 98-96 as a 6 ½-point road underdog in late December. The total went ‘over’ in both games.
The odds makers have the Miami Heat as a -4.5 point favorite with an over/under of 187.
Check out the latest NBA Basketball Playoff Odds here.
Prediction: Stick with Dallas to extend the streak at least one more game as it shocks the Heat on the road to grab the early edge in this series.
Miami Heat Betting Trends:
- Miami is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
- The total has gone OVER in 8 of Miami’s last 11 games
- The total has gone OVER in 5 of Miami’s last 5 games at home
- Miami is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Dallas Mavericks Betting Trends:
- Dallas is 16-2-1 ATS in its last 19 games
- The total has gone OVER in 5 of Dallas’s last 7 games
- Dallas is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games
- Dallas is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
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