Dallas Mavericks 2009-2010 Season Preview, Picks & Odds

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Dallas Mavericks 2008-2009 NBA Record: 50-32, 3rd in Southwest Division

Dallas Mavericks 2008-2009 ATS (Against The Spread): 40-42

Dallas Mavericks Betting Trends & Betting Angles:

• 1-9 ATS past 10 Nov home games

• UNDER is 9-2 past 11 Dec road games

• UNDER is 10-3 past 1 3 Dec home games

• 19-1 SU past 20 Jan home games

• 2-11 SU, 1-11-1 ATS past 13 vs Nuggets

• UNDER is 10-2-2 past 14 at Houston

• 11-3 ATS past 14 at San Antonio

Dallas Mavericks 2009-2010 Preview & Prediction

If the Mavericks stay healthy, they will once again exceed the 50-win plateau and be applauded for being a team comprised of ‘savvy veterans’ – but if key players spend as much time on the bench in suits as they do on the court in uniforms, then the Mavericks will be criticized for having too many players who are’ over the hill.’

Dallas Mavericks Coach: Rick Carlisle (2nd season)

Dallas Mavericks Returning Players: guards J.J. Barea, Matt Carroll, Jason Kidd, Jason Terry; center Erick Dampier; forwards Drew Gooden, Josh Howard, Dirk Nowitzki, James Singleton, Shawne Williams.

Dallas Mavericks Key Additions: Guard Rodrigue Beaubois (draft), forward Kris Humphries (trade from Raptors), forward Shawn Marion (trade from Raptors), forward Nathan Jawai (trade from Raptors), guard Quinton Ross (free agent), forward Tim Thomas (free agent), center Jake Voskuhl (free agent).

Dallas Mavericks Key Subtractions: Guard Jerry Stackhouse (traded to Grizzlies), forward Devean George (traded to Raptors), forward Antoine Wright (traded to Raptors), forward Brandon Bass (signed with Magic), guard Gerald Green (free agent), center Ryan Hollins (signed with Timberwolves).

2009-2010 Dallas Mavericks Point Guards:

Jason Kidd possesses uncanny court vision and is an amazing rebounder from the point guard position. He struggles at times to defend small, quick guards, but with the current rules regarding perimeter defense so do most players in the NBA. He is big enough and savvy enough to check shooting guards, leaving Jason Terry or J.J. Barea the task of chasing the lightning bugs. Kidd is often knocked for his shooting, but last season he shot a career-high .406 from three point range. More than half of his field goal attempts come from behind the are, so his low overall field goal percentage is a bit deceptive. Kidd also will at times pass up a shot in the lane in order to feed a teammate for a dunk or a layup, which is good for team chemistry and team field goal percentage, but not so good for his individual field goal percentage. Kidd ranked fifth in the NBA in apg (8.7) and third in spg (1.9) last season and has ranked in the top five in assists every year since 1996, winning five apg titles (1999-01, 2003-04) along the way.

Barea provides a nice change of pace off of the bench, using his speed and shooting ability to wreak havoc. Terry can also play some minutes at point guard, providing fearless sharpshooting and even some play making (he tied with Barea for second on the team in assists). In the long term, the Mavs hope that Rodrique Beaubois can eventually replace Kidd.

2009-2010 Dallas Mavericks Off Guards:

Terry will play most of his minutes at this position, firing away from three-point range to spread the court for Nowitzki, Howard and Marion. Terry is obviously undersized for a shooting guard, but he is an excellent screen/roll player offensively, while on defense he and Kidd can often flip-flop assignments. It will be interesting to see what kind of rotation Carlisle settles on, because Marion and Howard have both made the All-Star team as forwards; when they ate on the court together, Howard will likely shift to the shooting guard spot. Quinton Ross does not shoot well, but he is a good athlete/ defender.

2009-2010 Dallas Mavericks Small Forwards:

Howard has the talent to be a perennial All-Star but he has developed an odd propensity for scoring a lot of first quarter points and then disappearing for the rest of the game. He has the athletic ability and toughness to guard the best players at the shooting guard or small forward positions, but he must get healthy and remain focused for the entire game instead of playing in spurts. Marion has had success both as an undersized power forward and at his natural small forward position. The main area in which he has declined recently is three point shooting: both his attempts and his percentage have plummeted since he left the Suns, a team that employed a fast breaking style that resulted in many open shots. Presumably, playing alongside Kidd should provide enough open shots for Marion to rediscover his long range prowess, and give him the opportunity to be on the receiving end of some alley-oops. Late addition Tim Thomas will definitely help.

2009-2010 Dallas Mavericks Power Forwards:

The term ‘elite’ is used way too liberally but Dirk Nowirzki clearly deserves that accolade: he has made the All-NBA first team four of the past five years (includ- ing last season) and his numbers have been remarkably consistent. He has improved his passing and ballhandling skills. Even though Nowitzki will never be a defensive stopper, he has become more adept at using his length on that end of the court. In that regard, it is also worth mentioning that he has averaged at least 7.3 defensive rebounds per game for the past nine years – and any coach will tell you that a defensive possession is not successful until the rebound is secured. Although Nowitzki may never live down Dallas’ 2007 first round loss to Golden State, he is one of the very few players whose career playoff scoring (25.5 ppg) and rebounding (11.0 rpg) averages are better than his regular season averages (22.7 ppg and 8.6 rpg).

With Brandon Bass Out of the picture, Marion could get some time here. Free agent acquisition Tim Thomas will provide three point shooting off of the bench and can play small forward as well in certain situations. Kris Humphries and Shawne Williams should be able to earn some backup minutes as well.

2009-2010 Dallas Mavericks Centers:

Erick Dampier shows flashes of ability, but he also goes through stretches in which he is very unproductive. Kidd seems to make a concerted effort to find Dampier and get some easy baskets for the big guy. The mid summer signing of Drew Gooden will likely relegate Dampier to a reserve role. Gooden has spent most of his career playing power forward, but the Mavs have made it clear that they intend to use Gooden mostly at center.

The Mavs will also likely use a ‘small’ lineup at times, with Nowirzki playing center, Marion at power forward, Howard maning the small forward slot and some combination of Kidd-Terry-Barea in the backcourt.

Dallas Mavericks 2009-2010 Season Predictions

We predict that the Dallas Mavericks will finish 3rd in the NBA Southwest Division .

Dallas Mavericks Betting

Dallas Mavericks NBA Championship Odds: +1800

Dallas Mavericks Eastern Conference Odds: +3000

Dallas Mavericks 2008-2009 Betting Stats

Dallas Mavericks Straight Up: 50-32

Dallas Mavericks ATS: 40-42

Dallas Mavericks Home ATS: 19-22

Dallas Mavericks Away ATS: 21-20

Dallas Mavericks Record As Favorite: 40-14

Dallas Mavericks Record As Dog: 10-17

Dallas Mavericks Over/Under: 37-44-1

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