NBA Free Pick – Monday February 28, 2011
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Boston Celtics @ Utah Jazz
Monday, February 28, 2011 at 9:00 pm EST on NBA TV
Pointspread: Celtics -4 ½
Over/Under: 192
The Boston Celtics will go for the season-sweep tonight when they take on the Utah Jazz at Energy Solutions Arena in Salt Lake City. Game time is set for 9 p.m. (ET) and it will be broadcast nationally on NBA TV.
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Boston will have to continue its pursuit of another NBA title without Kendrick Perkins. The Celtics decided to trade its big man to Oklahoma City for Jeff Green in what could be called a questionable move at best. Regardless, the Celtics will have to press on with an overall record of 42-15 straight-up and 28-27-2 against the spread. They have a 12-game lead over New York in the Atlantic Division and a half game lead over Miami in the Eastern Conference.
Boston is coming off a 99-92 win over the LA Clippers on Saturday as an eight-point road favorite after losing to Denver 89-75 as a 4 ½-point road favorite this past Thursday night. It is now 6-4 SU in its last 10 games.
The Celtics still have a very potent lineup with Paul Piece leading the way with a team-high 18.9 points a game. Kevin Garnett is now the team’s leading rebounder with 9.2 a game and Rajon Rondo leads the NBA in assists with an average of 12.1. Green was averaging 15 points and 5.5 rebounds for the Thunder and at this point will be used as an impact player off the bench in the Celtic’s game plan.
Boston is averaging 97.8 points a game while giving up just 91.2 which is the third-highest point differential in the league. It is shooting a league-high 49.1 percent from the field and 37.1 percent from three-point range. The Celtics are ranked 19th in the NBA from the free-throw line; converting on 75.5 percent of their attempts.
Utah pulled off a shocking trade of its own last week, sending All-Star guard Deron Williams to New Jersey for Devin Harris, Derrick Favors, and two future first-round draft picks. The Jazz certainly had an eye to the future in this move as they will most likely take a step backwards in the short-term. This team had already begun to slide since mid-January with just five wins in its last 20 games. It also lost long-time head coach Jerry Sloan, who suddenly decided to retire a couple of weeks ago.
The net result of all this turmoil is an overall record of 32-28 SU (26-33-1 ATS). The Jazz are five games behind Oklahoma City in the Northwest Division and a half game out of the eighth spot in the Western Conference. They are coming off a 120-116 loss to Detroit this past Saturday as a five-point road favorite.
Al Jefferson and Paul Millsap are now the two leading scorers for the team as both are averaging just over 17 points a game. Harris averaged 15.5 points and 7.6 assists for the Nets and will be counted on to replace the bulk of Williams’ production on offense. In two games with his new team, Favors averaged eight points and 2.5 rebounds off the bench.
The Jazz are averaging 99.6 points a game and shooting 46.4 percent from the field. They are hitting just 33.9 percent of their shots from three-point range but are converting on 77.9 percent of their attempts from the foul-line.
Boston is 1-4 ATS in its last five road games and 3-4 ATS in its last seven games overall. The total has stayed ‘under’ in four of its last six games.
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Utah is 0-4 ATS in its last four games at home and 2-5 ATS in its last seven games overall. The total has stayed ‘under’ in five of its last seven games.
Head-to-head, the Celtics have won three of the last five games SU including a 110-86 victory as a six-point home favorite on Jan.21. The total has gone ‘over’ in the last three meetings.
The Jazz have lost their last five home games SU and will be hard-pressed to keep this streak from hitting six against Boston. Stick with the Celtics to win and cover the 4 ½ points on the road in this one.
The odds makers have the Boston Celtics as a -4.5 point favorite with an over/under of 192.
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Boston Celtics Betting Trends:
- The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Boston’s last 6 games
- Boston is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
- Boston is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
- The total has gone OVER in 4 of Boston’s last 6 games on the road
Utah Jazz Betting Trends:
- The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Utah’s last 7 games
- Utah is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games
- Utah is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games
- The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Utah’s last 7 games at home
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