2011 NBA Finals - Dallas Mavericks vs Miami Heat | Odds, Preview, Predictions & Free Pick | Sportsbookbuzz.com

2011 NBA Finals Betting Preview & Prediction

Dallas Mavericks vs. Miami Heat

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This Tuesday night at the American Airlines Arena the Western Conference Champion Dallas Mavericks begin their quest for an elusive NBA World Title against the Eastern Conference Champion Miami Heat in a best-of-seven series. The format for the Finals is a bit different than the earlier playoff series with the first two games in Miami, the next three in Dallas, and games six and seven back in Miami if needed.

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BetOnline.com’s price on this series has the Mavericks at +150 to win it all and the Heat at -170. Dallas is listed as a is 4 ½-point road underdog in Game 1 with the ‘over/under’ set at 187. The odds that the series ends in four games are 18/1 for a Dallas victory and 9/1 for a Miami sweep. The odds that the series goes the distance with the Mavs coming out on top are 13/2 and 3/1 for the Heat to take home the title. The ‘over/under’ for total games played is listed at 5 ½ with the price on the ‘over’ being favored at -220 and the ‘under’ listed at +150.

Dallas faced No.6 seed Portland in the first round of the playoffs and needed six games to eliminate the Trail Blazers after dropping games three and four on the road. It earned a date with the Los Angeles Lakers in the second round and promptly swept the defending champions in four games. Against Oklahoma City in the conference finals, the Mavs’ gave up home court advantage with a 121-112 loss in Game 2 as a six-point favorite, but responded with three straight victories over the Thunder to win the West title in five games.

Dallas’s chances in this series rest squarely on the shoulders of Dirk Nowitzki. He has been nothing short of spectacular this postseason with an average 28.4 points, 7.5 rebounds, and 2.7 assists a game while shooting 51.7 percent from the field. Jason Terry has led the production off the bench with 17.3 points and 3.2 assists a game and Jason Kidd (9.9 points and 7.7 assists a game) has elevated his game to help the Mavs make their first appearance in the Finals since 2006.

Dallas is 12-3 straight-up and 12-2-1 against the spread this postseason. It is 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS at home and 5-2 SU and 6-0-1 ATS on the road. The total has gone ‘over’ in nine of its 15 games; five of eight at home and four of seven on the road.

Miami’s run to the Finals started with a five-game series win over Philadelphia in round one. The Heat exercised some regular season demons by eliminating Boston in five games in the second round. They dropped Game 1 of the conference finals against No.1 seed Chicago 103-82 as a 2 ½-point underdog, but reeled off four straight victories over the Bulls to wrap up the East title in five games.

LeBron James has taken his talents to a whole new level this postseason. He has averaged 26 points, 8.9 rebounds, and 5.5 assists in 15 playoff games. Dwyane Wade was basically a non-factor in the series against Chicago, but he has still averaged 23.7 points, 7.2 rebounds, and 4.1 assists a game overall. The third member of Miami’s ‘Big Three’, Chris Bosh has averaged 18.6 points and 8.9 rebounds. This trio has accounted for close to 74 percent of the Heats’ scoring and 60 percent of the rebounds this postseason.

Miami is also 12-3 SU this postseason and 10-5 ATS. It is a perfect 8-0 SU at home and 6-2 ATS. On the road it has gone 4-3 both SU and ATS. The total has gone ‘over’ in nine of the Heat’s 15 games overall. It has gone ‘over’ in six of its eight home games, but in just three of its seven on the road.

This year’s NBA title will most likely go to the team whose top dog proves to have the biggest bite. The advantage on paper should go to James because of a the presence of Wade and Bosh, but do not underestimate the rest of the players on the Mavericks’ roster. Only one series has gone the distance in this year’s NBA playoffs, but you get the feeling that this is destined for the full seven games. In the end, the Heat’s ‘Big Three’ stay true to their word with their first world title, but you can rest assured that Nowitzki and the Mavs will make them earn it.

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