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New York Yankees (81-52) vs Boston Red Sox (82-52)
Wednesday August 31 – 7:05PM (ESPN)
Pitching Probables: Phil Hughes vs Josh Beckett
Spread: Boston Red Sox -1.5
Money Line: Boston Red Sox -175, New York Yankees +160
Over/Under: 9
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It is amazing that with only a month to go these MLB titans are essentially even. Both should easily qualify for the playoffs but you can bet they each want that home field advantage for an expected ALCS matchup. From the Yankees perspective they are also looking to gain some psychological ground on Boston who has handled them with ease this season (NY is 3-10). They have only one series left (after this one) against their rivals to make up some ground. New York has a three game winning streak heading into this evening including the series opener last night. Phi Hughes takes the hill after getting spanked by Oakland last time out in a game in which the Yankees had a record comeback. Speaking of comebacks, with Alex Rodriguez back in the lineup the Bronx Bombers are back at full strength boasting a lineup that can score with the best of them.
The Boston Red Sox begin the day with a scant half-game lead in the American League over the hated Yankees. While the Yankees just got their third baseman back Boston is missing their own in Kevin Youkilis, who wasn’t really enjoying his finest season in Beantown. The same can’t be said for tonight’s starter Josh Beckett. Becket has been “wicked” sharp this season. He won’t match the 20 wins he had in 2007 but if he continues his current pace over the last month will finish with the best ERA, WHIP and BAA of his career. He has also been amazingly successful against New York this year. He is 4-0 against the Yanks, giving up only 3 runs in 27 innings of work. That is truly outstanding and a big reason the Sox have dominated this season. That kind of success is hard to ignore in looking at tonight.
The odds makers have the Boston Red Sox as a -1.5 point favorite with an run total of 9.
Prediction: This year Hughes vs Beckett is a huge mismatch. One that you can’t ignore. To me this is either a play on Boston or a pass if you don’t like the value on the Sox side.
Score Prediction: Boston Red Sox – 6, New York Yankees – 3
New York Yankees Betting Trends:
- NY Yankees are 4-2 SU in their last 6 games
- NY Yankees are 13-6 SU in their last 19 games on the road
- The total has gone UNDER in 4 of NY Yankees’s last 6 games on the road
- NY Yankees are 2-9 SU in their last 11 games when playing Boston
Boston Red Sox Betting Trends:
- The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Boston’s last 16 games
- Boston is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
- The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Boston’s last 8 games at home
- Boston is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games at home
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