Washington Nationals 2011 Preview, Predictions & Odds

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After back-to-back 100-loss seasons, the Nats improved 10 games in 2010. Now they’ll try for the next step, even with Stephen Strasburg sidelined.

Washington Nationals 2010 MLB Record: 69-93
Washington Nationals 2010 MLB Home Record: 41-40
Washington Nationals 2010 MLB Away Record: 28-53

Washington Nationals 2011 Betting

Washington Nationals Odds to Win the National League: +5000
Washington Nationals Odds to Win the World Series: +10000

Washington Nationals 2011 Preview & Prediction

If the goal of the offseason is to make bold moves that attract attention, the Nationals certainly succeeded. They grabbed headlines around the baseball world by signing former Phillies outfielder Jayson Werth to a seven-year, $126 million contract. But the real goal of the offseason is to put together a contending team for the next season, and in that regard, the Nationals didn’t get the job done. They improved by 10 games in 2010, and should be better in 2011 as young players like Ian Desmond and Danny Espinosa continue to mature. But the pitching staff isn’t good enough for the team to contend, and a lineup that ranked in the bottom third of the National League will miss first baseman Adam Dunn. With young ace Stephen Strasburg still recovering from Tommy John surgery, it’s ultimately a throw away year in the nation’s capital.

Washington Nationals Manager: Jim Riggleman – Third year Record: 624-787

The Washington-area native owns a .442 winning percentage in 11 seasons. He’ll need to guide the Nationals closer to the .500 mark to ensure he keeps his job.

Washington Nationals 2011 Projected Batting Order: CF Nyjer Morgan (L), SS Ian Desmond (R), 3B Ryan Zimmerman (R), RF Jayson Werth (R), 1B Adam LaRoche (L), LF Roger Bernadina (L), 2B Danny Espinosa (S), C Ivan Rodriguez (R).

Washington Nationals 2011 Projected Rotation: RH Livan Hernandez, LH John Lannan, RH Jordan Zimmermann, RH Jason Marquis, LH Ross Detwiler.

Washington Nationals 2011 Projected Closer: RH Drew Storen

2011 Washington Nationals Offense:

This lineup is slowly improving, but lead-off hitter CF Nyjer Morgan took a big step back last year, going from .307 to .253 in BA and .369 to ,319 in OBP. He may end up sitting against lefties this season. SS Ian Desmond stole 17 bases and knocked in 65 runs, but he had nearly four times as many K(109) as BB (28). Despite alingering hamstring injury, 3B Ryan Zimmerman still managed acareer-high .307 average with 25 HR and 85 RBI. Adam Dunn has moved to Chicago, making $126 million RF Jayson Werth the new clean-up hitter protecting Zimmerman in the lineup. Werth has averaged 32 HR and 92 RBI in the past two seasons. The rest of the order is shaky with unproven LF Roger Bernadina and 1B Mike Morse penciled into the starting lineup at press time. New OF Rick Ankiel could also see significant at-bats. C Ivan Rodriguez will eventually give way to 23-year-old Wilson Ramos, who hits for average with alittle pop in his bat. 2B Danny Espinosa, also 23, had 28 HR and 25 SB combined last year in the minors and majors.

2011 Washington Nationals Rotation:

With Stephen strasburg expected to miss the entire 2011 season after reconstructive elbow surgery, the ace of this injury-riddled staff is 36-year-old Livan Hernandez. He actually posted a 3.66 ERA and an opponents’ .165 BA (13for- 79) when pitching with two outs and runners in scoring position. Jason Marquis threw up a20.52 ERA (19 ER in 8.1 IP) in his first three starts before going on the DL for three months with an elbow injury. He returned to post a respectable 4.29 ERA in his final 10 starts. John Lannan also had some elbow troubles last year and finished the year strong – 6-3, 3.42 ERA in his final 11 starts. His K-to-BB ratio went from 0.7 (24 K/35 BB) in the first half of the season to 3.4 (47 K/14 BB) after August. Jordan Zimmerman was another Nats pitcher with elbow troubles that limited him to seven starts (4.94 ERA, 1.32 WHIP). Chien-Ming Wang was the worst pitcher in baseball in 2009 (9.64 ERA, 2.02 WHIP) and missed all of last year with ashoulder injury.

2011 Washington Nationals Bullpen:

Drew Storen pitched well enough last year to warrant the closer role when 2011 begins. He went 5-for-7 in save chances and struck out 52 batters in 55.1 innings. His 22 walks were uncharacteristic of his minor-league career where he boasted a 5.8 K-to-BB ratio (64 K/11 BB). Should Storen stumble, Tyler Clippard is next in line for saves. Clippard threw 91 innings in the Nats bullpen last year and tallied 112 strikeouts and 11 wins. He also blew 10 saves in a non-closer role, with eight losses. Lefty Sean Burneti is a fantasy option for NL-only or mega-deep leagues. He had three saves last year and posted a 2.14 ERA and 1.14 WHIP with 62 Kin 63 IP.

2011 Washington Nationals Middle Infield:

The Nationals revitalized this part of the team in 2010, giving the starting shortstop job to Desmond, who responded by hitting 10 homers and stealing 17 bases in his rookie season. Desmond made 34 errors in 2010 but impressed the Nationals with his range and athleticism. He’ll be joined in 2011 by Espinosa, a converted shortstop who, like Desmond in 2010, will get a long leash at second base. The switch-hitter blasted six homers in a September call-up, but he’ll need to cut down on his strikeouts. It’s a good thing the Nationals are planning to let their two young players develop on the job, because they don’t have much in the way of alternatives. Alberto Gonzalez returns as a utility infielder.

2011 Washington Nationals Corners:

Third base is one of the only positions that looks the same for the Nationals year-in and year-out. They have Ryan Zimmerman, a two-time Silver Slugger winner and one of the best defensive third basemen in the game. He’ll hit third, but he’ll have to adjust to life without Dunn hitting behind him. Zimmerman’s best two seasons have come with Dunn in the cleanup spot, but the Nationals had too many reservations with the slugger’s defense to give him the long-term deal he wanted. Adam LaRoche was signed in January to replace Dunn. He won’t provide as much pop in the middle of the lineup — though he did hit 25 homers with a career-high 100 RBIs in Arizona last year — but he will be an upgrade on defense.

2011 Washington Nationals Outfield:

The Nationals have been searching for a sturdy outfield for years and might finally have one with the addition of Werth, who will start in right field and likely bat cleanup. Nyjer Morgan is coming off a disappointing 2010 season, when he hit just .253, got on base at a meager .319 clip and attracted attention for a number of on-field incidents. The Nationals still think he can be their leadoff hitter and center fielder, though, and he’ll get a shot to recapture his electric performance of the second half of 2009. Roger Bernadina, the starting right fielder for most of 2010, can play any of the three spots and give the Nationals a left-handed bat in left or right. He figures to start in left field against righthanders, with Michael Morse in the lineup against lefties.

2011 Washington Nationals Catching:

After trading for former Twins prospect Wilson Ramos last July, the Nationals suddenly have a log jam at a position where they’ve traditionally been thin. They expect Jesus Flores to be fully recovered from shoulder surgery that caused him to miss all of 2010, and Ivan Rodriguez returns at age 39 after playing 111 games in 2010. The Nationals expect to keep only two catchers, which means either Flores or Ramos could get traded or sent to the minors.

2011 Washington Nationals Bench:

Morse will get at bats in the outfield, at first and as a pinch-hitter. Rick Ankiel, if healthy, provides another quality bat off the bench. Utilityman Jerry Hairston, Jr., is expected to fill in all over the field. Hairston has speed, plays good defense at multiple positions and has experience and a clutch bat.

Washington Nationals 2011 Season Predictions

The Nationals took a necessary step forward last season, improving from 59 to 69 wins. To approach a .500 record, they’ll need more consistency out of their rotation and more discipline at the plate. This team should post a better record this year, but with Stephen Strasburg still recovering from Tommy John surgery, 80 wins seems unlikely. – We predict that the Washington Nationals will finish 75-87 & 4th in the NL East Division.

Washington Nationals 5-Year Win Trend

2006: 5th NL East 71
2007: 4th NL East 73
2008: 5th NL East 59
2009: 5th NL East 59
2010: 5th NL East 69

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