Twins vs Orioles | Prediction & Pick

Minnesota Twins vs Baltimore Orioles – MLB Free Pick – Wednesday April 20, 2011

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Minnesota Twins (6-11) vs Baltimore Orioles (7-9)
Wednesday, April 20, 2011 at 7:05 PM EST on ESPN

Spread: Baltimore Orioles -1.5
Money Line: Twins +130 / Orioles 150
Over/Under: 8.5

Pitching Probables: Nick Blackburn vs Zack Britton

The Minnesota Twins are off to an underwhelming start.  They are in last place in the American League Central with few indicators of better play on the immediate horizon.  They are last in the league in runs scored and with Joe Mauer out ,and Justin Morneau and Delmon Young questionable, their lineup is not looking very fearsome these days.  That wouldn’t be as problematic if they were getting better production from their pitching.  Usually they are solidly in the middle of the pack on the mound  but this year they are well below that in most categories.  They are last in the league in strikeouts which means that a lot of ball are being put into play against a defense that is not as sharp as usual.  The Twins have been such a reliable team of late that their poor play is surprising.  We will know soon whether it is a decline or just a slump.  Either way this is a hard to team to get behind right now.

The Baltimore Orioles have cooled after a hot start.  They had lost 8 in a row before thumping Minnesota in the series opener 11-0.  Their losing streak was a combination of poor pitching and hitting but rather than a slump it might have been regression to the expected levels for most of their roster.  The O’s are still waiting for their big offseason acquisitions to awaken.  It looks like Vlad Guerrero might be coming around but they are getting little from their corner combination of Mark Reynolds and Derrek Lee (other than strikeouts).  One good sign is catcher Matt Wieters who is slowly but surely raising his batting average after it dipped below .200.  On the pitching front, Zach Britton, who was magic his first couple of starts has fallen back to earth.  He will be facing a weakened Minnesota lineup this evening.

The odds makers have the Baltimore Orioles as a -1.5 point favorite with an run total of 8.5.

Check out the latest MLB Baseball Odds here.

Prediction: A couple of teams in a down cycle but somebody has to win it right? Baltimore is the stronger play and decent value given recent play and preseason expectations.

Score Prediction: Baltimore – 5 / Minnesota – 3

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Minnesota Twins Betting Trends:

• Minnesota is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games
• The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Minnesota’s last 6 games
• The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Minnesota’s last 7 games on the road
• Minnesota is 5-14 SU in its last 19 games on the road

Baltimore Orioles Betting Trends:

• Baltimore is 1-8 SU in its last 9 games
• The total has gone OVER in 5 of Baltimore’s last 7 games
• The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Baltimore’s last 16 games when playing Minnesota
• Baltimore is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games when playing Minnesota