Toronto Blue Jays 2011 Preview, Predictions & Odds

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Perennially stuck in the middle of the pack, the Blue Jays took a step forward in 2010. Can new manager John Farrell help them overcome that last major hurdle?

Toronto Blue Jays 2010 MLB Record: 85-77
Toronto Blue Jays 2010 MLB Home Record: 45-33
Toronto Blue Jays 2010 MLB Away Record: 40-44

Toronto Blue Jays 2011 Betting

Toronto Blue Jays Odds to Win the American League: +3000
Toronto Blue Jays Odds to Win the World Series: +8000

Toronto Blue Jays 2011 Preview & Prediction

The Blue Jays are nearly two decades removed from their last postseason appearance, when Joe Carter homered to clinch the 1993 World Series. Only the Pirates, Royals and Expos/Nationals have gone longer without a playoff berth, and the Blue Jays won’t get there this year in baseball’s most competitive division. Their major league-leading home run total, an eye-popping 257, is bound to decline, and the rotation lacks a shutdown ace, though Brandon Morrow and Kyle Drabek have promise.

Toronto Blue Jays Manager: John Farrell – First year Record: 0-0

A journeyman righthander, Farrell turned to coaching and front office work when he retired in the late ’90s. He spent four years as Boston’s pitching coach.

Toronto Blue Jays 2011 Projected Batting Order: LF Rajal Davis (R), 2B Aaron Hill (R), CF Vernon Wells (R), 3B Jose Bautista (R), 1B Adam Lind (L), SS Yunel Escobar (R), RF Travis Snider (L), DH Edwin Encarnacion (R), C J.P. Arencibia (R).

Toronto Blue Jays 2011 Projected Rotation: RH Brandon Morrow, LH Ricky Romero, LH Brett Cecil, RH Kyle Drabek, LH Marc Rzepczynski.

Toronto Blue Jays 2011 Projected Closer: RH Octavlo Dotel

2011 Toronto Blue Jays Offense:

The Blue Jays led the majors with 257 home runs last season and were second behind the Red Sox in total bases (15.4 per game). 3B Jose Bautista was the home-run king in all of baseball with 54 round-trippers, 29 of those with men on base. CF Vernon Wells was second on the team with 31 bombs. He hit .321 with 20 HR and 54 RBI at the Rogers Centre last year. 1B Adam Lind rounds out the 3-4-5 of the order, despite afrightening drop in numbers (.305-35-114 in 2009 to .237-23-72 in 2010). RF Rajai Davis, who has 91 SB in the past two seasons, will lead off for the Jays. He had an unimpressive .320 OBP with Oakland last year. SS Yunel Escobar will bat second despite his woeful .318 slugging pet. last year. His middle-infield partner is 2B Aaron Hill, whose numbers fell like a stone in 2010, including a BA drop from .286 to .209. LF Travis Snider (23) and C J.P. Arencibia (25) have great fantasy potential as young hitters, but veteran DH Edwin Encarnacion certainly does not.

2011 Toronta Blue Jays Rotation:

Toronto’s rotation was better than expected last year (63-51, 4.30 ERA), but the 2011 version will no longer have ace Shaun Marcum. Ricky Romero now wears the No.1 starter label following a solid second season in the majors (14-9, 3.73 ERA, 174 K). He struggled against good AL East opponents, however, carrying a 6.22 ERA in 10 starts against Boston, New York and Tampa Bay. Brett Cecil was also apleasant surprise with a team-high 15 wins. The 24-year-old lefty fizzled down the stretch with a 5.57 ERA and 1.67 WHIP in his final nine starts. Brandon Morrow led the team with 178 K, fanning nearly 11 batters per nine innings. He also cut down his homerun rate despite a career-worst 4.49 ERA. Kyle Drabek made his much-anticipated debut in the majors and lost all three starts (4.76 ERA). He has great movement on his pitches and is mature beyond his age of 23. Marc Rzepczynski (4.95 ERA, 1.60 WHIP) is not a fantasy asset, but the 25-year-old lefty has time to improve.

2011 Toronto Blue Jays Bullpen:

There’s a new sheriff in town as 37-year-old Octavio Dotel takes over the closing duties from free agent Kevin Gregg. Dotel pitched for three teams last year, compiling a 4.08 ERA and saving 21 of his 22 games in 40 innings with the Pirates. If Dotel breaks down like he has done in the past, Jason Frasor is certainly capable of ninth-inning duties with his above-average fastball and wicked curve. Frasor (65 Kin 63.2 IP) has 36 saves in his career, including 15 over the past two seasons. David Purcey is the top lefty in the bullpen and has been much more reliable as areliever (3.71 ERA, 1.21 WHIP) than he ever was as astarter (5.81 ERA, 1.59 WHIP).

2011 Toronto Blue Jays Middle Infield:

The Blue Jays were thrilled to switch shortstops with the contending Atlanta Braves last summer, shipping out Alex Gonzalez for Yunel Escobar. Gonzalez will be 34 this season, but Escobar is 28. Escobar had a significant decline in production last season, dipping from 14 homers in 2009 to four last season and from .299 to .256. Still, he has a better future than Gonzalez, and installing players with higher ceilings is paramount for the Blue Jays. To that end, they hope they did not misread Aaron Hill’s future. Hill seemed to be on the verge of stardom when he broke out for a .286-36-108 stat line in ’09, and it seemed then that the Jays would surely pick up his three option years through 2014. After posting a meager .271 on-base percentage last season, Hill knows that he must produce, because the Blue Jays could decline all the options and make him a free agent. Hill retained much ofhis power last season (26 HRs) even though he came to the plate 154 fewer times than in ’09.

2011 Toronto Blue Jays Corners:

Jose Bautista was the story of the season for the Blue Jays, who now seem prepared to shift him from right field to third base. It might seem unwise to mess at all with a guy who just erupted for a major league-best 54 homers, but Bautista has played third base more than any other position in his meandering career, with 318 starts there, including 45 last season. Returning to a full-time role at third, which he more or less had in Pittsburgh in 2007 and 2008, should go smoothly. With Lyle Overbay now with the Pirates, Toronto will shift Adam Lind from designated hitter to first base, where he has started just eight times (all last season) in his five-year career. Lind took a major step back last season, but if he can hit the way he did in 2009 (35 homers, 114 RBI, .932 OPS), the Jays would be overjoyed.

2011 Toronto Blue Jays Outfield:

The Blue Jays ranked last in the American League in stolen bases in 2010, and next to last the year before. So they acted quickly this win- . ter to make a deal with Oakland for Rajai Davis, who was available after the 1s acquired David Dejesus. Davis had 50 steals last season after 41 in 2009, though his on-base percentage fell from .360 to .320. He’ll have to pick that up, and if he does, he should score a lot of runs batting ahead of the Blue Jays’ power hitters. Davis should play left next to Vernon Wells, who is a long way removed from winning three Gold Gloves from 2004-06. Wells is signed through 2014 at an average of $21.5 million per season, much more than he is worth given his production. He did have his best season since 2006 last year, with 31 homers and 88 RBIs, but his on-base percentage, .331, was nearly identical to his career mark in that category, and after 12 seasons, that’s probably who he is. Bautista’s full-time move to third base frees up Travis Snider to be the everyday right fielder. Snider, 23, had outstanding power in the minors and will get the chance to join the Blue Jays’ home run brigade this season.

2011 Toronto Blue Jays Catching:

J.P. Arencibia will have a hard time ever topping his first day in the majors last August, when he became the first player since 1900 with two home runs and four hits in’ his debut. It turned out that was the easy part. After his debut, Arencibia went I-for-30 with a single, two walks and 11 strikeouts in 10 games. But Arencibia is a former first-round draft pick who profiles as a solid major league catcher, and the job is his after John Buck cashed in on an AllStar season by signing a three-year, $18 million contract with the Marlins. Arencibia’s backup is Jose Molina, a master at calling a game who has one of the strongest arms in the game.

2011 Toronto Blue Jays Bench:

For one year and just $2.5 million, the Blue Jays couldn’t pass up the chance to bring back Edwin Encarnacion, who homered once every 15.8 at-bats for Toronto in an injury-marred 2010 season. The Jays don’t want to use Encarnacion at third anymore; but they believe he could help out at first as Adam Lind adjusts to the position. Expect most ofEncarnacion’s at-bats to come as the DH. Utility infielder John McDonald, 36, returns for his seventh season in Toronto, with a younger version ofhimself, 30-year-old Mike McCoy, also on the roster. Outfielder Corey Patterson is long past his status as a future star, but he’ll have value as a pinch runner.

Toronto Blue Jays 2011 Season Predictions

The Blue Jays are doing some good things, having stockpiled some top prospects while discovering gems in Jose Bautista, Aaron Hill, and Ricky Romero. They’re probably not ready to catch the AL East elites yet, but they could be ready to pass the ever-changing Rays and ascend to third place in baseball’s toughest division. – We predict that the Toronto Blue Jays will finish 82-80 & 3rd in the AL East Division.

Toronto Blue Jays 5-Year Win Trend

2006: 2nd AL East 87
2007: 3rd AL East 83
2008: 4th AL East 86
2009: 4th AL East 75
2010: 4th AL East 85

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