Tigers vs Orioles | Prediction & Pick

Detroit vs Baltimore – MLB Free Pick – Thursday April 7, 2011

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Detroit Tigers (2-3) vs. Baltimore Orioles (4-1)
Thursday, April 7, 2011 at 7:05 PM EST on MLB Network

Pitching Probables:Brad Penny vs Chris Tillman

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Detroit won last night, finally stopping the powerhouse Baltimore Orioles, handing them their first loss of the season It helped to have their ace on the mound as Justin Verlander was able to slow down an offense that was just killing it with runners on base Unfortunately the Tigers close out this three game set with the O’s with the less than reliable Brad Penny. Penny was awful against the Yankees in his first Tiger start but I think it is more than fair to say that the Orioles lineup is not nearly as fearsome. Still for them to have a chance he has to pitch deeper into the game. I am of the mind that fading Penny is likely to be a winning strategy for “investors” this season.

The Orioles have been sharp in the early going getting great pitching and very timely hitting. But the bloom may be starting to fall off the rose as injuries are affecting the pitching staff. Yesterday’s game was supposed to be started by ace Jeremy Guthrie but he is now out and the O’s suffered their first loss of the season. The rest of the staff including tonight’s starter Chris Tillman is far from estbalished, even though manager Buck Showalter appears to be able to get the most out of them. It would be most helpful if the Orioles got more production out of their trio of sluggesr acquired in the offseason. Thus far the combination of Derek Lee, Mark Reynolds and Vlad Guerrero is hitting just under .200. When, if those guys start performing better than this team might really be one to fear. Facing Penny could help.

Prediction: As stated earlier, I have no confidence in Penny this season. Because it is the Orioles there is decent value backing their opponent in this one.

The odds makers have the Detroit Tigers  as a -1.5 point favorite with an run total of 9.

Check out the latest MLB Baseball Odds here.

Score Prediction:
Baltimore – 6
Detroit – 5

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Detroit Tigers Betting Trends:

• Detroit is 3-9 SU in its last 12 games
• The total has gone OVER in 4 of Detroit’s last 5 games
• The total has gone OVER in 4 of Detroit’s last 5 games on the road
• Detroit is 3-9 SU in its last 12 games on the road

Baltimore Orioles Betting Trends:

• The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Baltimore’s last 8 games
• Baltimore is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
• Baltimore is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games at home
• The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Baltimore’s last 5 games at home