Tampa Bay Rays 2011 Preview, Predictions & Odds

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They were AL East champs for the second time in three years. If the Rays are going to pull that off again, they’ll have to overcome the loss of several key players.

Tampa Bay Rays 2010 MLB Record: 96-66
Tampa Bay Rays 2010 MLB Home Record: 49-32
Tampa Bay Rays 2010 MLB Away Record: 47-34

Tampa Bay Rays 2011 Betting

Tampa Bay Rays Odds to Win the American League: +1200
Tampa Bay Rays Odds to Win the World Series: +3000

Tampa Bay Rays 2011 Preview & Prediction

December 8. On that date in 1941, FDR delivered his Day of Infamy speech following the attack on Pearl Harbor. And on that date in 2010, the Tampa Bay Rays endured their own day of infamy, almost certainly fading from being one of baseball’s most skilled and vibrant teams to a just another small-market wannabe. In a single news cycle, Carl Crawford (the best player the Rays have ever had) signed with Boston; Carlos Pena (the best home run hitter they’ve ever had) became a Cub; and Jason Bartlett (the best shortstop they’ve ever had) was sent to San Diego. It took 24 hours for much of the momentum accrued as AL East champs two of the past three years to dissipate. And with Rafael Soriano (the best closer the team has ever had) lost to free agency and Matt Garza (the first Ray to throw a no-hitter) traded it became a virtual inevitability that the only flag the Rays would be raising in 2011 was a white one.

Tampa Bay Rays Manager: Joe Maddon – Sixth year Record: 431-430

More cultured and sophisticated than your run-of-the-mill manager, Maddon long ago won over his team with his astute decisionmaking and playerfriendly approach.

Tampa Bay Rays 2011 Projected Batting Order: C John Jaso (L), SS Reid Brignac (L), RF Ben Zobrist (S), 3B Evan Longoria (R), 1B Dan Johnson (L), CF B.J. Upton (R), DH Matt Joyce (L), 2B Sean Rodriguez (R), LF Desmond Jennings (R).

Tampa Bay Rays 2011 Projected Rotation: LH David Price, RH Wade Davis, RH James Shields, RH Jeff Niemann, RH Jeremy Hellickson.

Tampa Bay Rays 2011 Projected Closer: RH Joel Peralta

2011 Tampa Bay Rays Offense:

There are plenty of fresh faces in this lineup as Tampa Bay parted ways with Carl Crawford, Carlos Pena and Jason Bartlett. Speedy 24-year old LF Desmond Jennings will try his best to replace Crawford. He had 37 SB in Triple-A last year. 1B Dan Johnson takes over for Pena with a .239 career BA, including a .219 clip with RISP. C John Jaso will lead off after posting a .380 OBP when batting first in 2010. CF B.J. Upton is averaging a mediocre .250 BA, 13 HR and 61 RBI since 2008. RF Ben Zobrist is the NO.3 hitter, despite his .238 BA and .353 SLG last year (.297 BA, .543 SLG in ’09). 3B Evan Longoria has 217 RBI over the past two seasons, but he hit 11 fewer HR than he did in 2009 and is now accompanied by a weaker supporting cast. DH Matt Joyce is poised for a breakout season batting fifth, with 25 HR and 80 RBI in 490 career AB. SS Reid Brignac could also have a breakout season taking over for Bartlett. 2B Sean Rodriguez is a streaky hitter who has yet to exhibit any kind of plate discipline (97 K, 21 BB last year).

2011 Tampa Bay Rays Rotation:

The Rays rotation will have to be even better than its NO.3 ranking in the AL (3.99 starters’ ERA) last year to compete for a playoff spot. David Price led the AL in win percentage (.760) while ranking third in ERA (2.72) and eighth in strikeouts (188). At age 25, this lefty will continue to dominate, especially in pitcher-friendly Tropicana Field where he was 9-2 with a1.96 ERA and 1.05 WHIP last year. After a 2.99 ERA in his first 10 starts, James Shields had a huge meltdown and posted a7.25 ERA in the following 10 outings. Matt Garza has posted three straight nearly identical seasons of quality baseball, making 30+ starts in each year with aWHIP of 1.24,1.26 and 1.25. Wade Davis had a great second half of 2010 (6-1, 3.28 ERA, 1.22 WHIP after All-Star break), but he needs to pitch deeper into games to take the pressure off the bullpen. Jeff Niemann’s numbers were severely affected by a shoulder injury, but the 6-foot-9 hurler should be fully healthy for spring training.

2011 Tampa Bay Rays Bullpen:

With all the turnover in Tampa Bay’s bullpen, it’s a wide-open race to see who will close games. Joel Peralta could get the first shot. He had a phenomenal year with Washington (2.02 ERA, 0.80 WHIP), but the 35-year-old has only two career saves. Adam Russell has more of a closer’s makeup with his 6-foot-8 stature. The former Padre needs to do a much better job with runners on base, allowing opponents to hit .339 with a,424 OBP in his career (.163 BA, .268 OBP with the bases empty). Jake McGee is the top left-hander in the bullpen with incredible combined relief numbers in the majors and Triple-A last season (20.11p, 2ER, 6BB, 29 K).

2011 Tampa Bay Rays Middle Infield:

The team’s “vending machine” development model — one Ray is ejected with cash from another team, but a replacement is instantly queued up behind him — will be tested at shortstop this season. There should be minimal fall-off from Bartlett to Reid Brignac who, according to the skipper, is “one of the better fielders of the ball in the American League.” Offensively, he’s midpack and needs to make adjustments. Multi-positional gamer Sean Rodriguez will see most of the second base action. His tools rate average-to-above.

2011 Tampa Bay Rays Corners:

With a Silver Slugger and two Gold Gloves before his 25th birthday, Evan Longoria is the game’s gold standard at third base. Best of all, the Rays had the prescience to negotiate contract options on him through 2016. First baseman Dan Johnson will not replicate Peña’s 36-homer/102-RBI average Rays season, but the club hopes the 31-year-old journeyman’s monstrous minor league numbers finally translate. He takes a voluminous number of pitches — both balls and strikes — but will hammer a mistake. Defensively, there’s no comparison.

2011 Tampa Bay Rays Outfield:

After the winter flurry of contracts calmed, the Rays signed former Red Sox teammates Johnny Damon and Manny Ramirez, both part of Boston’s championship in 2004. Damon will play left and will be Maddon’s first choice at leadoff. Rookie Desmond Jennings is a reasonable Crawford facsimile in the speed and defense departments, but has yet to show similar hitting instincts. That’s not to say he can’t become a star in time, but if he’s not quite ready, Ben Zobrist is an option. Maddon moves Ben Zobrist all over the diamond, but most days he’ll be in right, where he’s outstanding. His surprising emergence as an impact bat in 2009 was fleeting, but like most Rays, he walks a lot and will swipe a bag. Center fielder B.J. Upton is officially an enigma. Only occasionally have the Rays seen the .300-hitting/24-homer pop they got in 2007. And occasionally they see a somewhat lackadaisical talent-waster. What’s always in evidence are stolen bases and strikeouts by the boatload and rangy, strong-armed play afield.

2011 Tampa Bay Rays Catching:

John Jaso’s high rates of contact and getting aboard made him an unlikely leadoff-hitting rookie last season, when he ousted former All-Star Dioner Navarro from the backstop job. He improved defensively during the year but is no threat to win a Gold Glove.

2011 Tampa Bay Rays Bench:

Ramirez wasn’t signed to sit, so he’ll take over full-time DH duty. Assuming Jennings doesn’t win an outfield spot and breaks camp with the major league club, he will have ample opportunities. Matt Joyce will be one of the better fielding fourth or fifth outfielders in the game. Three players — Rodriguez, Zobrist and rookie switch-hitter Elliot Johnson — can play almost anywhere. Maddon will deploy them as if they were so many Stratego pieces. Kelly Shoppach is an adequate platoon partner for the lefty-hitting Jaso, his primary attributes being veteran savvy and a .949 career OPS against southpaws.

Tampa Bay Rays 2011 Season Predictions

There hasn’t been a better story in baseball the last three years than the Rays. Sadly, it looks like their championship window may have closed. They suffered massive losses over the winter, and though they’ve still got a strong rotation, it probably won’t be enough to stay ahead of the Red Sox, Yankees, and even the improving Blue Jays. – We predict that the Tampa Bay Rays will finish 81-81 & 4th in the AL East Division.

Tampa Bay Rays 5-Year Win Trend

2006: 5th AL East 61
2007: 5th AL East 66
2008: 1st AL East 97
2009: 3rd AL East 84
2010: 1st AL East 96

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