Seattle Mariners 2011 Preview, Predictions & Odds

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A pathetically weak lineup doomed the Mariners to 101 losses last season. Can they take advantage of a strong pitching staff led by Cy Young winner Felix Hernandez?

Seattle Mariners 2010 MLB Record: 61-101
Seattle Mariners 2010 MLB Home Record: 35-46
Seattle Mariners 2010 MLB Away Record: 26-55

Seattle Mariners 2011 Betting

Seattle Mariners Odds to Win the American League: +4000
Seattle Mariners Odds to Win the World Series: +10000

Seattle Mariners 2011 Preview & Prediction

Someday, historians may look back in amazement at the 2010 Seattle Mariners, who managed the unique feat of losing 101 games despite boasting a rotation headed by two Cy Young winners, in Cliff Lee and Felix Hernandez; a lineup that featured two potential Hall of Fame hitters, in Ken Griffey Jr. and Ichiro Suzuki; and a defense that ranked among the game’s best. They were, in fact, the first $100 million team to lose 100 games. How did such a thing occur? The culprit, of course, was an offense that scored just 513 runs and hit just .236. And the result, predictably, was a bloodbath. Griffey, a shell of his former self, retired in midseason. Lee was traded for prospects. Manager Don Wakamatsu was fired. The offseason brought a careful overhauling, beginning with a new manager, former Cleveland skipper Eric Wedge. For the Mariners, the best that can be said about 2010 is that it’s over.

Seattle Mariners Manager: Eric Wedge – First year (eighth overall) Record: 561-573

He was fired by the Indians and sat out 2010, but the Mariners hired Wedge. He’s a tough disciplinarian who will attempt to change the culture in Seattle.

Seattle Mariners 2011 Projected Batting Order: RF Ichiro Suzuki (L), 3B Chone Figgins (S), 1B Justin Smoak (S), DH Jack Cust (L), CF Franklin Gutierrez (R), C Miguel Olivo (R), LF Michael Saunders (L), 2B Brendan Ryan (R), SS Jack Wilson (R).

Seattle Mariners 2011 Projected Rotation: RH Felix Hernandez, LH Jason Vargas, RH Doug Fister, RH Michael Pineda, RH David Pauley.

Seattle Mariners 2011 Projected Closer: RH David Aardsma

2011 Seattle Mariners Offense:

OF Ichiro Suzuki hit fewer line drives last season. He may not win another batting title and doesn’t have anyone in the lineup to drive him in, but he can still run. Chone Figgins recovered from an awful start to provide a decent batting average and steals. He’ll move back to third this year. OF Franklin Gutierrez was baseball’s worst NO.3 hitter, but the M’s might not have anyone to supplant him.Wedge has DH Jack Cust pegged as an everyday player, and he’ll provide some needed power. C Miguel Olivo returns to Seattle, but he has an adjustment to make after spending last year in Colorado. 1B Justin Smoak has been overmatched at the big league level, but there’s time for him to adjust. The M’s want to give OF Michael Saunders a chance and use Milton Bradley as a reserve. After aterrible start in the minors, 2B Dustin Ackley turned it on and then dominated winter league. He has the inside track over Brendan Ryan. SS Jack Wilson is back with his good glove. He still can’t hit.

2011 Seattle Mariners Rotation:

Felix Gernandez will continue to be one of baseball’s elite pitchers, especially with such an outstanding defense behind him. Obviously, the big question is run support, and he probably won’t get much again this year. Doug Fister pounds the strike zone and can get away with it in a pitcher-friendly park with a great defense behind him. He should post a decent ERA and WHIP again. Jason Vargas would get burned by his flyball tendencies in a lot of places, but he’s good enough to get by as a NO.3-caliber starter in spacious Safeco. He’s a huge injury risk as usual, but Erik Bedard threw well coming off an injury in 2009. He’s worth keeping an eye on during spring training, though he certainly can’t be relied on to make 3D-plus starts. It’s a three-way battle for the fifth spot. David Pauley is probably the frontrunner though Luke French will have a shot as well. Eventually the spot is going to go to top prospect Michael Pineda, probably after the All-Star break.

2011 Seattle Mariners Bullpen:

If he’s still in town David Aardsma will keep his closing duties, though the Mariners have been shopping him. Don’t expect him to be in Seattle past the trading deadline. If Aardsma is gone, Brandon League is next in line for saves. He throws hard, but has always been more of a groundball guy than someone who misses bats. He’s not really a fantasy option until (or unless) he takes the closer’s role. Seattle also has some young arms who are closer possibilities down the line, such as Dan Cortes or minor leaguer Josh Fields.

2011 Seattle Mariners Middle Infield:

The Mariners’ infield changed significantly with the December trade for Brendan Ryan — a trade made possible, in part, by the versatility of Chone Figgins. Figgins, one of the Mariners’ big acquisitions from the previous winter, spent 2010 as the team’s everyday second baseman. But before that, he had played primarily third base for the Los Angeles Angels. And that, presumably, is where Figgins will spend 2011, with Ryan taking over at second. Ryan, though, may just be keeping the position warm until prospect Dustin Ackley arrives — perhaps as soon as June. Ackley, chosen with the second overall pick of the 2009 draft, posted a .267/.368/.407 batting line (combined Double-A and Triple-A), then topped it off with a stellar showing in the Arizona Fall League. At shortstop, veteran Jack Wilson returns for a second full year in Seattle. The Mariners expect little offense from Wilson, but will settle for his usual brand of spectacular, steady defense.

2011 Seattle Mariners Corners:

The centerpiece of the package the Mariners received from the Texas Rangers for Lee last July was Justin Smoak, a big, switch-hitting first baseman who — following an up-and-down 2010 — is expected to break camp as the Mariners’ starting first baseman. His minor league track record (especially a .404 career OBP) suggests he can, and will, hit big league pitching. Across the diamond, Figgins is expected to man third base, with the Mariners praying his precipitous drop in production last season was just a one-year blip, and not an indication of a steep decline. At the very least, Figgins will play exceptional defense.

2011 Seattle Mariners Outfield:

For 11 years now, the Mariners have been able to count on one thing without fail — Ichiro Suzuki playing right field (well, except for that brief flirtation with center field a few years back) and batting leadoff. In 10 seasons in America, he has 10 Gold Gloves and 10 200-hit seasons. At the other corner, Michael Saunders represents a leap of faith. He is still only 24, and the Mariners appear ready to anoint him the everyday left fielder. His growth as a hitter is crucial to the team’s 2011 fortunes. Franklin Gutierrez is arguably the top defensive center fielder in the game, but the Mariners need more than just fancy glovework from him in 2011.

2011 Seattle Mariners Catching:

The December signing of free agent Miguel Olivo underscored the Mariners’ failures to develop a homegrown catcher. Olivo is what he is — a competent, journeyman backstop with significant pop but little plate discipline (.283 career OBP). He won’t hurt the Mariners, but he won’t help them significantly either. And the two-year contract puts an end to any talk of Adam Moore being a part of the Mariners’ future. He could stick around as Olivo’s backup, but that’s about it.

2011 Seattle Mariners Bench:

After signing free agent Jack Cust to a one-year deal in December, the Mariners have what amounts to a very intriguing DH platoon, with Cust from the left side and holdover Milton Bradley from the right. Cust provides tons of walks, strikeouts and homers, and little else of note. Meantime, Bradley was a bust in Seattle, and he has a checkered history with new manager Eric Wedge from their days in Cleveland. But perhaps seeing a steady diet of lefties could revive his career. The Mariners’ bench is fairly boilerplate: steady Josh Wilson as a utility infielder, Matt Tuiasosopo as a backup corner infielder, Moore as the backup catcher, and possibly Greg Halman as an extra outfielder.

Seattle Mariners 2011 Season Predictions

It’s a pity the Mariners can’t supply Felix Hernandez with a bit more offense. Otherwise, the ace right-hander might have won 23 games last year instead of 13. Unfortunately, this group just doesn’t produce enough at the plate to take advantage of its quality pitching and defense. – We predict that the Seattle Mariners will finish 64-98 & 4th in the AL West Division.

Seattle Mariners 5-Year Win Trend

2006: 4th AL West 78
2007: 2nd AL West 88
2008: 4th AL West 61
2009: 3rd AL West 85
2010: 4th AL West 61

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