Seattle Mariners 2010 Preview, Predictions & Odds

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Seattle Mariners 2009 MLB Record: 85-77
Seattle Mariners 2009 MLB Home Record: 48-33
Seattle Mariners 2009 MLB Away Record: 37-44

Seattle Mariners 2010 Betting

Seattle Mariners Odds to Win the American League: 8/1
Seattle Mariners Odds to Win the World Series: 16/1

Seattle Mariners 2010 Preview & Prediction

After improving by a whopping 24 games from 2008 to ’09, the Mariners spent their off season trying to assemble the pieces necessary to take the next step – which means unseating the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim atop the AL West. Did they succeed? The evidence is overwhelmingly in their favor. First, new general manager Jack Zduriencik stole away the Angels’ third baseman and leadoff man, Chone Figgins, with a four-year, $36 million deal. Then, around the same time the Angels were losing staff ace John Lackey to Boston, the Mariners traded for lefty Cliff Lee, one of the most dominant pitchers in the game the past two seasons, at a cost of three prospects. The big question for the Mariners is whether they have done enough to improve an offense that scored only 640 runs in 2009, a horrendous figure that ranked last in the AL and lower than every NL team except San Diego and Pittsburgh.

It would be nice to think the Mariners could make up 2009′s 12-game gap between themselves and the division-champion Angels with one electrifying off season and end the Angels’ three-year reign atop the West. But despite the addition of Lee and the defection of Figgins from Anaheim to Seattle, the Mariners appear to be still one player-namely, a middle-of-the-order bat – away from toppling the Angels.

Seattle Mariners Manager: Don Wakamatsu (1 Season) Record: 85 – 77

Seattle Mariners 2010 Projected Batting Order: RF Ichiro Suzuki (L), 3B Chone Figgins (S), LF Milton Bradley (S), 2B Jose Lopez (R), DH Ken Griffey Jr. (L), CF Franklin Gutierrez (R), 1B Casey Kotchman (L), SS Jack Wilson (R), C Rob Johnson (R)

Seattle Mariners 2010 Projected Rotation: RH Felix Hernandez, LH Cliff Lee, RH Ian Snell, LH Ryan Rowland-Smith, LH Jason Vargas

Seattle Mariners 2010 Projected Closer: RH David Aardsma

2010 Seattle Mariners Rotation:

The Lee deal, which makes up for the losses far Washburn and Erik Bedard, changes everything for the M’s. He is what Bedard was meant to be all along – the perfect, dominant complement to Hernandez, being both left-handed and ultra-precise with his command. As for Hernandez, 2009 was the year he took that giant step forward. He went 19-5 with a 2.49 ERA (both career-bests) and made a late charge at the AL Cy Young Award before finishing second to Kansas City’s Zack Greinke. And the best thing about Hernandez is the fact he turns 24 in April. The Mariners can go Hernandez- Lee-Ian Snell, then fill the last two spots from a group that includes lefties Ryan Rowland-Smith and Jason Vargas, and right handers Doug Fister and Yusmeiro Petit.

2009-2010 Seattle Mariners Bullpen:

The Mariners discovered a closer in their midst, in hard-throwing right hander David Aardsma – gambling (correctly, as it turned out) that his high strikeout rate (9.1 per nine innings for his career) would translate well in the ninth inning. What they probably did not anticipate was that his WHIP would decline so precipitously, from a frightening 1.652 entering 2009 to a superb 1.164 in his first season as closer. Mark Lowe, Shawn Kelley, Brandon League and Sean White (assuming he’s healthy) give manager Don Wakamatsu a full complement of right-handed options in the pen, with Lowe again the primary eighth inning man. The Mariners also used their pick in the Rule 5 draft to take intriguing right hander Kanekoa Texeira, a sinker-slider specialist, from the Yankees. From the left side, Jason Vargas, Garrett Olson and Luke French – all of whom spent at least some time in the Mariners’ rotation in 2009 – are the primary options, and none of them can be considered a true lock-down situational lefty at this point.

2010 Seattle Mariners Middle Infield:

The addition of Jack Wilson at the trade deadline last year shored up the Mariners’ porous defense. Wilson was, by at least one measure, the best defensive shortstop in the game in 2009 – ranking first among shortstops with a 20.4 UZR (ultimate zone rating) per 150 games. Still, he ranks among the worst hitters in the majors; his career OPS of .684 is fifth-worst among active players with at least 3,000 plate appearances. Second baseman Jose Lopez, on the other hand, is just an average to slightly above-average fielder who is good for 20 homers and 90 RBI’s – or maybe more, considering he is still only 26 and has shown improvement in each of the last two seasons. What Lopez and Wilson share, unfortunately for the Mariners, is an inability to draw walks or work a count.

2010 Seattle Mariners Corners:

Figgins was an inspired choice by the Mariners to be Adrian Belue’s replacement, as he’s worth about an extra 50 points in on base percentage, offering the perfect blend of speed and patience. Surprisingly, given Beltre’s well-earned defensive reputation, the Mariners may not be losing much on that side of the ball either, as Figgins ranked fourth among all big league third basemen in UZR per 150 games, with a figure of 18.8 – Belue ranked first at 21.0 – in only his second full season at the position. Casey Kotchman, acquired in January from Boston, is the favorite to take over for Russell Branyan at first base, but youngster Mike Carp, a left-handed hitter with decent gap power, will also get a long look. The Mariners don’t want to get bogged down in a long contract with a first baseman, with top prospect Dustin Ackley on the verge.

2010 Seattle Mariners Outfield:

There is a good case to be made that Franklin Gutierrez is the best defensive player at any position. In 2009, Gutierrez’s UZR of 29.1 blew away the rest of the field; Tampa Bay third baseman Evan Longoria was a distant second at 18.5. Gutierrez’s offensive game is developing as well, as he set career- highs in 2009 in homers (18), RBI’s (70), batting average (.283) and on-base percentage (.339). The incomparable Ichiro Suzuki, meanwhile, returns to hold down right field, where he is both one of the best defensive players in the game and one of the most electrifying hitters. Milton Bradley, whom the Mariners acquired from the Cubs for right hander Carlos Silva, will be the primary left fielder.

2010 Seattle Mariners Catching:

If he’s healthy, Rob Johnson, who started 80 games last season, will likely get the bulk of the playing time, in which case the Mariners will have to live with another .600 OPS bat at the bottom of their lineup. Johnson, however, is corning off surgery on both hips and his left wrist this off season, which might be all the opening the Mariners need to see what prospect Adam Moore can do on a regular basis – otherwise he will likely go to Class AAA to play every day. Moore is a year younger than Johnson and more accomplished as a hitter. As an additional hedge on Johnson’s health, the Mariners signed former big league catcher Eliezer Alfonso to a minor league contract with a spring training invite.

2010 Seattle Mariners Bench:

The Mariners’ designated hitter will be the only current 600-homer man in the majors, as Ken Griffey Jr. opted to return to the fold for another season, his 22nd, although it’s questionable how much Felix Hernandez of a hitter he is anymore. Last season was the worst offensive year of Griffey’s career, and he capped it with off season surgery to remove bone spurs from his knee. Jack Hannahan is the Mariners’ utility infielder, and his ability to work counts and draw walks means he could also be a pinch-hit option for Wilson late in games. Veteran Ryan Langerhans and prospect Michael Saunders are top candidates for an extra outfield job.

Seattle Mariners 2010 Season Predictions

We predict that the Seattle Mariners will finish 2nd in the AL West Division .

Seattle Mariners 5-Year Win Trend

2009: 3rd AL West 85
2008: 4th AL West 61
2007: 2nd AL West 88
2006: 4th AL West 78
2005: 4th AL West 69

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