San Diego Padres 2011 Preview, Predictions & Odds

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After winning 90 games despite one of the smallest payrolls in baseball, the pitching-rich Padres hope to overcome the loss of first baseman Adrian Gonzalez.

San Diego Padres 2010 MLB Record: 90-72
San Diego Padres 2010 MLB Home Record: 45-36
San Diego Padres 2010 MLB Away Record: 45-36

San Diego Padres 2011 Betting

San Diego Padres Odds to Win the National League: +4000
San Diego Padres Odds to Win the World Series: +10000

San Diego Padres 2011 Preview & Prediction

San Diego will try to rebound from a disappointing collapse without three-time All-Star first baseman Adrian Gonzalez, who was traded to the Boston Red Sox for four players, including three top prospects. The Padres knew they couldn’t afford to keep the hometown star, so it was just a matter ofwhen to deal him for maximum value. Co-owner Jeff Moorad and general manager Jed Hoyer said they needed to look out for the franchise’s long-term health. Hoyer has made several other changes to the Padres, who must compete with a payroll between $42 million and $45 million. The Padres had the best record in the National League on Aug. 25, and then went 14-23 the rest of the way. If they don’t fix their painfully inept offense, it’ll be impossible to recapture the good feelings from the summer of 2010.

San Diego Padres Manager: Bud Black – Fifth year Record: 317-332

Given his background as a big-league hurler and pitching coach, it’s only appropriate Black manages a club with one of the best pitching staffs in baseball.

San Diego Padres 2011 Projected Batting Order: RF Will Venable (L), SS Jason Bartlett (R), 2B Orlando Hudson (S), 1B Brad Hawpe (L), LF Ryan Ludwick (R), 3B Chase Headley, CF Cameron Maybin (R), C Nick Hundley (R).

San Diego Padres 2011 Projected Rotation: RH Mat Latos, LH Clayton Richard, RH Aaron Harang, RH Dustin Moseley, LH Wade LeBlanc.

San Diego Padres 2011 Projected Closer: RM Heath Bell

2011 San Diego Padres Offense:

SS Jason Bartlett gives them a decent on base percentage guy, but his 2009 power surge is looking like quite the fluke. 2B Orlando Hudson is coming off a career-worst season, but he’s still decent for San Diego’s standards. With Adrian Gonzalez gone, the Pads will look to Ryan Ludwick for some run production. 3B Chase Headley has bulked up in an attempt to hit for more power. He strikes out a ton, but Will Venable has the power and speed to make an impact when he does make contact. C Nick Hundley has held his own offensively in Petco Park. He could be asked to play five days a week this season. OF Cameron Maybin is a great fit defensively in centefield, but he’s yet to figure out how to hit at the big league level. The small ball Padres figure to use his speed when he gets on. San Diego needs Kyle Blanks to deliver on his power potential when he returns from elbow surgery (probably in June). In the meantime, Brad Hawpe will probably fill in at first base.

2011 San Diego Padres Rotation:

Mat Latos is the real deal at the top of the rotation, but the Pads will likely be more careful with him in a rebuilding year because of his extensive injury history. It’s tough to see him winning 15 with this offense behind him. Clayton Richard made strides last year, cutting down on his walk rate enough to cross the 200-inning barrier. He should post a sub-4.00 ERA again. With his tendency to work up in the strike zone, veteran Aaron Harang was agreat addition to this rotation. He can still miss bats, and he won’t be burned by the longball like he was in Cincinnati. Of course, like with the rest of this staff, run support will be an issue. Wade LeBlanc is another one of those flyball pitchers who can get by in Petco. He’s progressed nicely over the past two years and could be a solid NO.3-caliber pitcher in 2011. The fifth spot will go to either prospect Cory Luebke, who was solid in alate-season audition, or veteran Tim Stauffer, who has bounced between the bullpen and rotation.

2011 San Diego Padres Bullpen:

The bullpen is the strength of this team, led by closer Heath Bell. The Padres have insisted that they aren’t trading him, but a rebuilding team has little use for an elite closer, especially when they have numerous other pitchers capable of doing the job. We still expect Bell to be gone by the trade deadline. Like Mariano’s cutter or Lincecum’s changeup, Luke Gregerson’s slider is one of those pitches that hitters just can’t handle. He could easily step in as an effective closer if Bell is dealt. Though veteran Mike Adams, who has been dominant in his own right, would also be in the mix.

2011 San Diego Padres Middle Infield:

The Padres believe they’ve improved up the middle with the addition of shortstop Jason Bartlett and second baseman Orlando Hudson. Bartlett replaces Miguel Tejada, who was signed by San Francisco, and Hudson replaces David Eckstein, who became a free agent. Bartlett was originally drafted by the Padres in 2001, then traded to Minnesota the following July. San Diego gets younger at both positions, and should be better defensively. The Padres hope Bartlett regains his offensive form from his All-Star season of 2009, when he set career highs by hitting .320 with 14 home runs, 66 RBIs, 90 runs scored and 30 stolen bases. Both Bartlett and Hudson seem excited to be playing for the Padres. Hudson was given a two-year contract worth $11.5 million.

2011 San Diego Padres Corners:

Brad Hawpe, signed to a free agent deal as the last major offseason move, will basically be a one-year rental to replace Gonzalez. He’s been an outfielder the majority of his career, with only a handful of starts at first base. The Padres traded Gonzalez without having an Opening Day replacement in the organization. Kyle Blanks, the heir apparent, underwent elbow reconstruction surgery in late July and isn’t expected back until around midseason. The Padres had moved Blanks to left field to get him at-bats before he was hurt. Anthony Rizzo, one of the prospects obtained from Boston, isn’t expected to be ready for a season or two. Third baseman Chase Headley had a serviceable year, but fans are still waiting for some power. He hit 11 homers last season and has just 32 in 1,502 at-bats in four seasons. Jorge Cantu, a liability defensively, may earn some time at both corners.

2011 San Diego Padres Outfield:

As a part of getting stronger up the middle, the Padres obtained center fielder Cameron Maybin from the Florida Marlins. Maybin was the 10th overall pick in the 2005 draft and later was traded by Detroit for Miguel Cabrera. He’s struggled to make consistent contact and has been sent back to the minors numerous times. His overall game is good enough, though, that the Padres were able to make Tony Gwynn Jr. expendable. Gwynn has good wheels but couldn’t even come close to hitting .250, a far cry from his Hall of Fame father. Rounding out the starting outfield are right fielder Will Venable and left fielder Ryan Ludwick, who didn’t deliver the expected power after coming over from the St. Louis Cardinals.

2011 San Diego Padres Catching:

Nick Hundley returns as the starter. He started 73 games last year and hit a career-best .249, with eight homers and 43 RBIs. He’ll have a different backup for the third straight year. He’s gone from Henry Blanco to Yorvit Torrealba to Rob Johnson, obtained from the Seattle Mariners. Johnson was Seattle’s Opening Day starter in 2010, but he slumped and was sent to Triple-A. He hit only .191 in 61 games.

2011 San Diego Padres Bench:

There could be a huge dropoff this year. The signing of Hudson means the team can’t afford to bring back Jerry Hairston Jr., a utility infielder who might have been the team’s true MVP last year. Hairston filled in when shortstop Everth Cabrera and then Eckstein were injured. Hairston himself was hurt in late August — coinciding with a 10-game losing streak — and again in late September. Cantu should provide some pop off the bench as well as filling in for Hawpe and Headley. Outfielder Chris Denorfia will be back to provide valuable depth, as will Oscar Salazar. Outfielder Eric Patterson was the “player to be named later” in the Gonzalez deal. When Blanks returns sometime in midseason, he’ll add depth either in the outfield or at first base.

2011 San Diego Padres Schedule | 2011 NL West Preview | San Diego Padres Sportsbooks

San Diego Padres 2011 Season Predictions

It’s amazing that the Padres were still alive on the season’s final day. That said, they faded down the stretch. The loss of Adrian Gonzalez only makes the challenge more difficult. San Diego has something good going, but a’small step back in 2011 wouldn’t be surprising. – We predict that the San Diego Padres will finish 81-81 & 3rd in the NL West Division.

San Diego Padres 5-Year Win Trend

2006: T-1st NL West 88
2007: 3rd NL West 89
2008: 5th NL West 63
2009: 4th NL West 75
2010: 2nd NL West 90

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