Reds vs Astros | Prediction & Pick

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Cincinnati Red (19-16) vs Houston Astros (13-22)
Tuesday, May 10, 2011 at 8:10 PM EST on MLB Network

Spread: Cincinnati Reds -1.5
Money Line: Reds -136 / Astros +126
Over/Under: 7.5

Pitching Probables: Home Bailey vs. Brett Myers

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The Cincinnati Reds took the opener of the series last night continuing a run of pretty good play that has them just a game back of the St. Louis Cardinals in the National League Central.  These teams have already met 7 times this season with Cincinnati winning 5 of them and looking for more tonight.  One of those wins was Homer Bailey’s last start which also happened to be his best start of the season (6IP, 1ER, 7Ks).  The jury is out on whether this is permanent development or not, but you have to like Bailey against a lineup that is not exactly full of household names right now.  Add that and the fact that the Reds are third in the league in runs and there is more than enough reason to feel good about backing the Reds against the Astros this evening.

The Houston Astros just might be the worst team in the majors in 2011.  A lot of that has to do with a pitching staff that has the worst ERA at an even 5.00.  Only one starter has an ERA under 4.00 and it isn’t tonight’s starter Brett Myers who has regressed lately after an amazing season last year.  He started strong this year too but in his last three starts he has given up a minimum of 4 runs including 6ER his last time out against the Reds.  Simply put he is giving up too many hits and it is quite possible the Reds will pummel him again..  One ray of hope is that Myers has been much better at home this season. I don’t expect that will be enough.

The odds makers have the Cincinnati Reds as a -1.5 point favorite with an run total of 7.5.

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Prediction:  Reds continue their mastery of Houston in 2011 behind another solid effort from Bailey.  Fantasy watchers might want to pick him up.  Decent value on Cincy, you might want to parlay them.

Score Prediction: Cincinnati – 5 / Houston – 1

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Cincinnati Reds Betting Trends:

• Cincinnati is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
• The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cincinnati’s last 6 games
• The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cincinnati’s last 6 games on the road
• Cincinnati is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road

Houston Astros Betting Trends:

• Houston is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games
• The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Houston’s last 10 games
• The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Houston’s last 5 games at home
• Houston is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games at home