Phillies vs Giants | Game 3 Pick

MLB Baseball Free Pick – Phillies vs Giants – NLCS Game 3

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Philadelphia Phillies vs San Francisco Giants
4:15 PM Tueday October 19, 2010 on Fox
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Pitching Probables: Cole Hamels vs Matt Cain

Game three is always important but especially in this series as there is a huge difference for both squads after their first three starters.  It was disappointing to lose a game at home but with the Phillies evening things out in game 2 they should feel pretty good with Cole Hamels on the mound in this one.  He is still their most accomplished starter in the playoffs and the reason he got the nod in this one is that his numbers in San Fran are a bit better than Roy Oswalt’s.  It was nice to see the Phildelphia offense show some life, especially Jimmy Rollins.  Rollins is their most versatile threat and he can spark the whole team.  Raul Ibanez doesnit have a hit yet in the series but he can bust out at anytime, especially against a righty like Cain.

Same old story for the Giants in game two.  You aren’t going to win very many games scoring only a single run.  It is all relative but the team does hit better at home (.265 vs .250) and starter Matt Cain is much more effective there, by almost half a run.  Its simple, Cain is very likely to have a strong outing so if the Giants want to regain the series advantage they are going to have score some runs against Hamels.  Hamels numbers against the Giants (4-2 4.67 ERA) are fine but not spectacular so it could happen.  There is a lot of pressure on Cain to keep the Giants in the game and his numbers against Philly are bad (0-3 6.23)

Prediction:  I do not like betting against Hamels in the playoffs and won’t here given Cain’s historical struggles against Philadelphia.  The Phillies will take control of the series with a win.

San Francisco is +104 and the O/U is 6.5.

Score Prediction:

Philadelphia Phillies – 6
San Francisco Giants – 3

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Philadelphia Phillies Betting Trends:

• Philadelphia is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
• The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Philadelphia’s last 6 games on the road
• Philadelphia is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games on the road
• Philadelphia is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing San Francisco

San Francisco Giants Betting Trends:

• The total has gone UNDER in 9 of San Francisco’s last 13 games
• San Francisco is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
• The total has gone UNDER in 13 of San Francisco’s last 17 games at home
• San Francisco is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games at home.