MLB Betting Previews- Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves
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Spread: Philadelphia Phillies -1.5
Money Line: Phillies +145 / Braves -165
Over/Under: 6.5
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The Philadelphia Phillies wrap-up a three-game weekend series with the NL East rival Atlanta Braves this Sunday afternoon at Turner Field. Game time is set for 1:35 p.m. (ET) and it will be broadcast nationally on TBS.
Philadelphia got the early edge in this series by pounding out a 5-4 win as a 106 road favorite in Game 1 on Friday night. The victory maintained its lead over Florida in the division at three games and improved its MLB-best record to 25-12. The Phillies have won seven of their last 10 games and are now 12-5 on the road.
Behind one of the best starting rotations in the majors, the Phillies’ 3.06 team ERA is the second-best in the National League. Their lineup has also been productive with a team batting average of .260 and 161 runs scored. Ryan Howard is off to a blistering start with a team-high 35 RBI and nine home runs including a three-run blast in Friday’s win.
Philadelphia will have its ‘ace’ Roy Halladay on the mound for this series finale. He is 5-2 in eight previous starts and has already pitched three complete games. His last time out he went eight full innings and gave up five hits and one earned run but still lost the decision to Florida. Halladay has an ERA of just 2.05 and a 0.96 WHIP. He is a perfect 4-0 against the Braves with a 1.26 ERA.
Friday night’s loss dropped Atlanta to 21-19 on the year and 5 ½-games in back of Philadelphia in the NL East race. It is 11-9 on the road and an even 10-10 at Turner Field. The Braves dropped two of three games to Washington earlier this week but are still 6-4 in their last 10 games.
Their pitching has been rock-solid so far with an NL-best team ERA of 3.05. They are second in both strikeouts (315) and earned runs allowed (123). Atlanta is tied for 10th in the NL in hitting with a .242 team batting average but is third in runs scored with 169. Chipper Jones leads the team in RBI with 27 and Martin Prado leads the team in hits with 50. Jason Heyward has a team-high seven home runs, but remains doubtful for this game with a sore shoulder.
Tim Hudson will get the start on Sunday for the Braves. He is 4-3 this season with a 3.09 ERA. Last time out, he lasted just five innings after giving up five hits and three earned runs in a loss to the Nationals. Lifetime against the Phillies, Hudson is 7-7 with a 3.70 ERA but in an April 8 start he went 7 2/3 innings; giving up eight hits and just two earned runs to get the win.
Sunday’s home plate umpire will be Paul Emmel. He is 4-3 against the total line in seven previous games this year and the average runs scored were 8.71. Last season, 17 of his 32 games called stayed ‘under’ the total.
Philadelphia is 18-10 as a favorite this season and 7-2 as an underdog. The total has gone ‘over’ in three of its last four games and is 18-17-2 overall.
Atlanta is 13-16 as a favorite and 8-3 as an underdog. The total has gone ‘over’ in its last four games and is 21-16-3 overall.
Head-to-head, the Phillies have the slight edge so far this season with four wins in seven games and are 3-1 at Turner Field. The total is 3-3-1 in the seven games played.
Prediction: Hudson has been tough to beat at home over the years but with Halladay on the mound for Philadelphia stick with the Phillies to get the win as a probable road favorite.
The odds makers have the Philadelphia Phillies as a -1.5 point favorite with an run total of 6.5.
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Philadelphia Phillies Betting Trends:
- Philadelphia is 10-4 SU in its last 14 games
- The total has gone OVER in 5 of Philadelphia’s last 6 games on the road
- Philadelphia is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
- Philadelphia is 9-4 SU in its last 13 games when playing Atlanta
Atlanta Braves Betting Trends:
- The total has gone OVER in 4 of Atlanta’s last 5 games
- Atlanta is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
- Atlanta is 8-4 SU in its last 12 games
- The total has gone OVER in 8 of Atlanta’s last 9 games at home
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