Philadelphia Phillies 2011 Preview, Predictions & Odds

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The four-time NL East champs stunned everyone by reacquiring Cliff Lee. Their four-ace rotation makes them overwhelming favorites to win the division again.

Philadelphia Phillies 2010 MLB Record: 97-65
Philadelphia Phillies 2010 MLB Home Record: 54-30
Philadelphia Phillies 2010 MLB Away Record: 43-35

Philadelphia Phillies 2011 Betting

Philadelphia Phillies Odds to Win the National League: -110
Philadelphia Phillies Odds to Win the World Series: +200

Philadelphia Phillies 2011 Preview & Prediction

The Phillies clubhouse was a funeral parlor after the team lost to San Francisco in the NLCS in October. This club, you see, had grown accustomed to being one of the last two standing, and falling short of a third straight trip to the World Series in 2010 was a shock. Who knows? Maybe the shock was good for the Phils. Maybe the dull gnaw of missed chances – their hitters were 8-for-45 (.178) with runners in scoring position in the NLCS – and the challenge of unfinished business will carry this talented, veteran club back to the World Series in 2011. If that doesn’t, then there’s always the pitching. Have you heard Cliff Lee is back? Have you heard this team has four aces? Have you heard the Phils are the favorite to win the NL pennant for a third time in four years? There are heavy expectations on this club. Anything short of the World Series will be a disappointment

Philadelphia Phillies Manager: Charlie Manuel – Seventh year (10th overall) Record: 544-428

The folksy Manuel has long been considered a players’ manager who is well-suited to a roster full of veterans. He manages more by the gut than the book.

Philadelphia Phillies 2011 Projected Batting Order: SS Jimmy Rollins (S), 3B Placido Polanco (R), 2B Chase Utley (L), 1B Ryan Howard (L), CF Shane Victorino (S), LF Raul Ibanez (L), RF Domonic Brown (L), C Carlos Rulz (R).

Philadelphia Phillies 2011 Projected Rotation: RH Roy Halladay, LH Cliff Lee, RH Roy Oswalt, LH Cole Hamels, RH Kyle Kendrick.

Philadelphia Phillies 2011 Projected Closer: RH Brad Lidge

2011 Philadelphia Phillies Offense:

This lineup underachieved last season with a slew of injuries, and no Phillie was more plagued than SS Jimmy Rollins, who had three different types of injuries and batted a careerlow .243. 3B Placido Polanco, a career .303 hitter, remains in the two-hole after leading the Phillies in hits. 2B Chase Utley was hampered with a thumb injury, but finished with a huge September (.323 BA, 19 R, 5 HR, 22 RBI and 5 SB). 1B Ryan Howard played through an ankle injury and saw his HR total drop by 14. LF Raul Ibanez also lost some juice, going from 34 HRs to 16 last year. CF Shane Victorino had a career-high 18 bombs, but his batting average dropped to a careerlow .259. Domonic Brown will eventually replace Jayson Werth, but he’s expected to begin 2011 in Triple-A. When we went to press, it appeared as if the Phils would begin the season with a RF platoon of Ben Francisco and Ross Gload. C Carlos Ruiz had a terrific season, leading the team with a .302 BA and .400 OBP.

2011 Philadelphia Phillies Rotation:

This is clearly the best rotation in the major leagues with Cliff Leerejoining the team for five years and $120 million. Lee was 7-4 with a 3.39 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in 12 starts with the Phillies in 2009, including a2.52 ERA and 1.01 WHIP at Citizens Bank Park. Lee isn’t even the best pitcher on his team, as reigning Cy Young Award Winner Roy Halladay went 21-10 with a 2.44 ERA and 219 K’s in his first season in Philadelphia. Cole Hamels also had a monster season with a career-high 211 K and a career-best 3.06 ERA. Hamels should win more games than last season if he gets proper run support. Roy Oswalt would be the ace on the majority of pitching staffs in the majors, but he is the NO.4 man in this rotation. Oswalt was brilliant after being traded from Houston, going 7-1 with a 1.74 ERA and 0.90 WHIP in a Phillies uniform. Joe Blanton rounds out the rotation and he finished the 2010 campaign on a high note, winning his final six decisions after struggling in the first half of the season.

2011 Philadelphia Phillies Bullpen:

Familiar faces remain in the Philly bullpen. Brad Lidge battled a nagging elbow injury all season and was nearly perfect after August 1, with a 0.73 ERA and 0.85 WHIP in 26 appearances. He was also effective in the postseason, pitching four scoreless innings. Ryan Madson continues his role as one of the better set-up men in baseball. Madson will be the go-to guy if Lidge gets hurt again. He had six wins, five saves, a 2.55 ERA and a career-best 1.04 WHIP last season, making him worthy of a fantasy spot in most leagues. Philadelphia also re-signed Jose Conteras to pitch the seventh inning after he posted a 3.32 ERA for the Phillies last year.

2011 Philadelphia Phillies Middle Infield:

Jimmy Rollins and Chase Utley both turned 32 in the offseason. Both missed significant time with injuries in 2010. It’s probably an overstatement to say they have reached career crossroads, but they will both be looking for rebound seasons in 2011. Though not a prototypical leadoff man, Rollins remains the team’s best option in that spot, and he showed signs of improved selectivity in 2011. He remains a money-in-the-bank defender. Though not as smooth as Rollins, Utley, too, is an excellent defender. His batting average and slugging percentage have both slipped the last three seasons, but he remains a dangerous bat in the No. 3 hole.

2011 Philadelphia Phillies Corners:

One of the strongest corner combinations in baseball features slugger Ryan Howard at first and steady Placido Polanco at third. Despite missing time with a sprained ankle, Howard had another season of 30-plus homers and 100-plus RBIs. Over the last five seasons, he leads the majors in homers (229) and RBIs (680). Howard is no ballerina at first, but his defense has improved in recent seasons. At third, Polanco is as sure-handed as they come. He transitioned from second base in 2010 and made just five errors in 123 games at third. A valuable contact hitter in a let-it-rip lineup, Polanco had a solid offensive season despite playing with a painful bone spur in his left elbow. Surgery has fixed the problem; he should be as good as ever.

2011 Philadelphia Phillies Outfield:

It’s not the strength of the team, especially with Jayson Werth and his productive bat gone, but there are reasons to like this outfield. Raul Ibañez, whose 83 RBIs last season were just two fewer than Werth’s, enters the final year of his contract riding the momentum of a strong second half. Center fielder Shane Victorino remains a first-rate defender who tied for the NL lead with 11 outfield assists en route to a third straight Gold Glove. On the down side, Victorino’s batting average and on-base percentage both slipped. An aging roster will get an infusion of youth as top prospect Domonic Brown will take over in right field at some point this season, possibly as part of a platoon with Ben Francisco. Brown, 23, lit up pitching in Double-A and Triple-A last season, but struggled during a big league cameo.

2011 Philadelphia Phillies Catching:

A converted second baseman who signed for $8,000 out of Panama in 1998, catcher Carlos Ruiz has become an invaluable contributor. The ever-improving Ruiz signed a three-year, $8.85 million deal before the 2010 season and continued to be a bargain, hitting .302 with a .400 on-base percentage. The offense is nice, but Ruiz’ biggest contribution is his expert handling and leadership of the pitching staff. Brian Schneider is a strong backup.

2011 Philadelphia Phillies Bench:

Where would this team have been without Wilson Valdez in 2010? A non-roster player in March and waiver-wire resident in May, he managed to stick around and give the Phils tremendous defense — just three errors in 397 total chances — while making 88 starts at three infield positions. He returns in 2011 and will be valuable in giving Utley, Rollins and Polanco occasional rest. Francisco and Ross Gload could both see an increase in playing time as manager Charlie Manuel looks for a productive mix in right field.

Philadelphia Phillies 2011 Season Predictions

Just when it looked like they might take a step backward after four seasons of dominance, the Phillies went out and got Cliff Lee to come back to town. Their lineup may be showing signs of age, but that rotation of aces will make up for any low-scoring nights to come. At the end of the day, great pitching always wins out. – We predict that the Philadelphia Phillies will finish 100-62 & 1st in the NL East Division.

Philadelphia Phillies 5-Year Win Trend

2006: 2nd NL East 85
2007: 1st NL East 89
2008: 1st NL East 92
2009: 1st NL East 93
2010: 1st NL East 97

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