New York Mets 2010 Preview, Predictions & Odds

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New York Mets 2009 MLB Record: 70-92
New York Mets 2009 MLB Home Record: 41-40
New York Mets 2009 MLB Away Record: 29-52

New York Mets 2010 Betting

New York Mets Odds to Win the National League: 12/1
New York Mets Odds to Win the World Series: 20/1

New York Mets 2010 Preview & Prediction

After crashing and burning down the stretch two years in a row, the Mets saved their fans the anguish last season with a year that was brutal all along. By the end, it was hard to evaluate just who the Mets were because most of the important ones were on the disabled list. Nearly every significant Met went down to injury in 2009, dooming the team to 92 losses. The health cannot possibly be worse this season, but the Mets still have serious questions in their rotation and must learn to take advantage of their cavernous new home ballpark, where they were only one game over .500 last season.

The Mets lost significant ground in 2009. The injured players must return healthy, but even if they do, the Mets are no certainty to contend. The Phillies have proven themselves to be more talented and tougher; the Marlins have better young talent; and the Braves have a sturdier pitching staff. The Mets’ farm system is thin, limiting the trades they can make, and free agents do not seem to view Citi Field – a poor hitter’s park – as an attractive destination. On the positive side, things cannot get worse.

New York Mets Manager: Jerry Manuel (8 Seasons) Record: 625 – 601

New York Mets 2010 Projected Batting Order: SS Jose Reyes (S), 2B Luis Castillo (S), CF Carlos Bellran (S), LF Jason Bay (R), 3B David Wright (R), RF Jeff Francoeur (R), 1B Daniel Murphy (L), C Josh Thole (L)

New York Mets 2010 Projected Rotation: LH Johan Santana, RH Mike Pelfrey, RH John Maine, LH Oliver Perez, LH Jonathon Niese

New York Mets 2010 Projected Closer: RH Francisco Rodriguez

2010 New York Mets Rotation:

The Mets’ rotation fell apart last season. John Maine missed three months with shoulder fatigue, Oliver Perez had knee surgery and Mike Pelfrey regressed in his second full season as a starter. Jonathon Niese and Fernando Nieve pitched well, but both went down to leg injuries. Even Johan Santana shut down after 25 starts to have multiple bone fragments removed from his valuable left elbow on Sept. 1. The injuries forced the Mets to give a staggering 65 starts to Nelson Figueroa, Livan Hernandez, Pat Misch, Bobby Parnell and Tim Redding. In a perfect world, that number would be zero in 2010. The Mets expect Santana to be at full strength, and Pelfrey must diversify his repertoire to keep hitters honest. Maine and Perez become less reliable every year, and Perez, in particular, has shown a discouraging inability to throw strikes.

2009-2010 New York Mets Bullpen:

The Mets needed to fix their bullpen after the fiasco of 2008, and despite a lost season for J.J. Putz, it was one of the few bright spots of the year. Francisco Rodriguez struggled in the second half but handled his new surroundings well enough to make the All-Star team. Sean Green, Brian Stokes and Parnell were competent right-handed setup men, though the Mets rued the loss of Darren O’Day, who was given up on waivers and thrived in Texas. Lefty Pedro Feliciano continued to be one of the best in baseball at his specialty role, holding lefties to a .215 average, though they did hit four home runs. The Mets are hoping that Kelvim Escobar, signed to a one-year deal in late December, can give them something out of the pen after missing most of the past two seasons with a shoulder injury.

2010 New York Mets Middle Infield:

The Mets envisioned Jose Reyes and Luis Castillo causing havoc at the plate and on the bases. Instead, Castillo missed almost half of 2008 with injuries, and Reyes lost most of last season with a discouraging return of his hamstring problems after four healthy years. Reyes spent more than four months trying to recover without surgery, then tore a hamstring tendon in late September and had surgery anyway. The Mets believe he will be ready by spring training, but they also know they must give him all the time he needs. If healthy, of course, Reyes is a dynamic player who has led the league in steals three times, triples three times and hits once. But he has never had an on-base percentage as high as .360. Castillo, meanwhile, dropped a pop-up to end a game at Yankee Stadium but otherwise had a fine season. He hit .302 with a .387 on-base percentage and had the highest percentage of pitches taken (68.1 percent) in the majors. Even so, Castillo is almost exclusively a singles hitter (he had only 16 extra-base hits), and the Mets spent much of the winter trying to trade him.

2010 New York Mets Corners:

David Wright had the strangest season of his career. His .390 on-base percentage was just one point off his career average, but getting there was completely different. Wright had 140 strikeouts, a career high, despite playing in only 144 games, his lowest in five full seasons. He hit line drives at a higher rate than ever but produced only 10 home runs and a career- low .447 slugging percentage. Still, Wright is a bona fide All-Star and at 27 is part of the solution in Flushing. Across the diamond, Daniel Murphy held his own in his first full major league season, but the Mets do not know quite what he is. Murphy plays a premium power position yet does not hit for much power or make up for it with great speed or an especially high average or on-base percentage. An average fielder at first, Murphy did have this distinction: On a woeful team, he played the most games (155) and hit the most homers (12).

2010 New York Mets Outfield:

With Jason Bay, Carlos Beltran and Jeff Francoeur, the Mets should have one of the most productive outfields in baseball. They addressed their lack of power by signing Bay in January for four years and $66 million. In doing so, the Mets corrected a major mistake from 2002, when they shipped Bay, then in the minors, to San Diego for reliever Steve Reed. Bay has matured into a three time All-Star and a reliable source of power, exceeding 30 homers and 100 RBI’s in four of the last five seasons. Beltran’s outstanding defense in center will help make up for Bay’s lack of range. An All-Star in four of his five Mets seasons, Beltran showed in September that he was over his knee injury. He’ll be counted on for 20-plus homers and 100 runs batted in, numbers the Mets will also seek from Francoeur, who at 26 should be entering his prime. Francoeur’s .311 career on-base percentage leaves plenty of room for improvement, and he walked just 23 times in 632 plate appearances last season. But he also cut down on his strikeouts and seemed liberated to be away from his hometown of Atlanta.

2010 New York Mets Catching:

The Mets spent most of the winter seeking an upgrade behind the plate, but 23-year-old Josh Thole, who hit .321 in 17 games, could be the catcher of the present and the future. He has shown good plate discipline over five minor league seasons but has just eight career homers in 402 games and has never played above Class AA. The Mets signed veterans Henty Blanco and Chris Coste to be backups and insurance for the starter, whether it is Thole or a pre-spring arrival.

2010 New York Mets Bench:

If the Mets’ bench players can serve in their intended roles, the team will be overjoyed. Last season’s barrage of injuries forced the Mets to give far too many at-bats to players who are best utilized as reserves, not starters. When used as reserves, though, players such as Alex Cora, Angel Pagan and the newly signed backup catcher, Blanco, can be valuable contributors. Pagan has been prone to injury, dealing with shoulder, elbow and groin problems the last two years, but he hit .306 last season in a career high 343 at-bats. Infielder Anderson Hernandez is versatile and switch-hits, and lefty outfielder Chris Carter should get more of a chance with the Mets than he did with Boston, where his strong Class AAA power never earned him much of a look.

New York Mets 2010 Season Predictions

We predict that the New York Mets will finish 3rd in the AL East Division .

New York Mets 5-Year Win Trend

2009: 4th NL East 70
2008: 2nd NL East 89
2007: 2nd NL East 88
2006: 1st NL East 97
2005: T-3rd NL East 83

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