Nationals vs Reds | Preview, Odds, Free Pick

Washington Nationals (40-54) at Cincinnati Reds (53-42)
7:10 PM ESPN
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Starting Pitchers
WAS: Stephen Strasburg (4-2, 2.03)
CIN: Bronson Arroyo (10-4, 3.96)

The Washington Nationals face off against the Cincinnati Reds for game three of a four game set. The Reds lead the season series 3-1.

The Nationals sit dead last in the NL East, 11.5 games behind Atlanta. They play much better at home, to the tune of 25-21, versus 15-32 on the road. Despite that record, for the first time in several years the Nationals are not fighting to be the worst team in baseball. Several off season additions and the emergence of Strasburg have given rise to some hope in the nation’s capitol.

In the meantime, the Reds are second in the NL Central, a half game behind the red hot Cardinals. They have played to a record of 30-20 at home versus 22-22 on the road. They need to stay hot down the stretch to keep pace as St Louis is clicking just in time for the second half race.

The Nationals offense ranks in the bottom half of the league, but may be a little better than it looks on paper; at least some key ingredients are there. Despite trade speculation, Adam Dunn has quietly heated up, hitting five home runs in his last 10 games, and paces the team with 22 overall. He looks to be thriving on all the trade talk and is posting a batting average above his usual career mark. Josh Willingham is having a career year in a contract year, but has had a power outage of late, hitting 10-38 with no homers in the last ten games. Ryan Zimmerman is on pace for his usual 30+ homers and 100 plus RBIs.

Taking the mound for Washington is phenom Stephen Strasburg. He has lived up to all the hype and actually looked quite poised and composed in eight starts thus far. Already he is the team leader in strikeouts, with 68 in only 48 innings. The Nationals are being cautious with his workload, and so far he has been limited to seven innings, going that far twice. If he gets about 10 more starts in the second half, look for him to be Rookie of the Year. He boasts a 2.03 ERA and has yet to really struggle against competition, though he has yet to face a lineup as tough as the Reds.

Cincinnati has crushed the ball all season, with a breakout year from Joey Votto, who has quietly become one of the best first baseman in baseball. One of the rare few who can steal a base, he has seven on the season. Over the last ten games he has cooled, going 7-34 but is still among the league leaders in homers with 22. Brandon Phillips has not been running quite as much as in the past, but with the offense he hasn’t needed to. He does have 11 steals. Jay Bruce has slumped of late going 3-35 and dropping his average some 20 points.

Finally, taking the mound for Cincinnati is defacto ace Bronson Arroyo. He has only allowed three runs in his last three starts, going 21 innings and allowing 14 hits. Needless to say, he has gotten over his early season rockiness and seems poised to lead the Reds down the stretch. His record stands at 10-4, including 5-1 2.20 in his last six starts, and if not for some breakout seasons around the league, he might be mentioned in the CY Young talk come season end.

The odds makers have the Nationals as –1-½ – favorites with a run total of 7.

This is a tough one with two great pitchers toeing the rubber. However, it’s hard to bet against Strasburg, so I am going with the odds makers in this one. Nationals and the OVER.

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Washington Nationals Betting Trends:

• The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Washington’s last 6 games
• Washington is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games
• Washington is 2-12 SU in its last 14 games on the road
• The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Washington’s last 6 games on the road

Cincinnati Reds Betting Trends:

• Cincinnati is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
• Cincinnati is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home
• Cincinnati is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Washington
• Cincinnati is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games when playing at home against Washington