Cleveland Indians v Cincinnati Reds Pick
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The Cleveland Indians were on a tear and had the best record in baseball until they left Cincinnati back in May. Now the Tribe, who have struggled since sweeping their in state rivals in their first matchup of the season, will look to regain the lead atop the AL Central with a win in Game 2 of a three game set on Saturday night.
Date/Time: Saturday, July 2, 4:10 P.M. ET
Venue: Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati, Ohio
Broadcast: FOX
Cleveland Indians at Cincinnati Reds Betting Lines
Money Line: Indians +145, Reds -165
Spread: Reds -1.5
Over/Under: 9
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Cleveland busted out the starting gate posting a 30-15 record to start the 2011 season, but after a home sweep of Cincinnati, and a win over Boston, have now gone into a tailspin with just 12 wins in their last 34 games.
However, in spite of their abysmal record, the Indians were just a half game back of the division leading Detroit Tigers entering this series on Friday.
The Tribe will need to try a finish their six game road trip with a strong effort after being swept by the Giants their last time out. They did however, take two of three from Arizona getting 15 hits in a 6-2 win on Wednesday, despite being without their leading hitter, Travis Hafner (.336 AVG, .416 OPB, .560 SLG), who has been missing from the team’s starting lineup for six of an expected nine games.
The loss of Hafner has been even more devastating than originally thought, as nearly every other player in the lineup is battling a slump of varying length, including shortstop Asdrubal Cabrera who has gone 7 for 17 with four RBIs during the stretch.
Nevertheless, Cleveland have been able to scratch across eight runs in their four losses on the trip, with Orlando Cabrerra posting a season-high four hits and is 8 for 14 with three doubles in his last four appearances.
Cleveland’s Fausto Carmona (4-10, 5.89) will be hoping his teammates score some runs for him as he looks to snap a two-game losing streak.
The right-hander pitched more than five innings Sunday for just the second time in his last six starts, giving gave up just three runs in six innings, but took the 3-1 loss to the Giants.
Carmona’s record fell to 4-10, as he became the first American League pitcher to lose 10 games this year. His is 0-1 with a 2.35 ERA in two starts against the Reds but hasn’t faced them this year.
Meanwhile, the Reds got a boost from catcher Ryan Hanigan, who missed three games because of a sore lat muscle, when he hit a three-run homer to give the Reds a 4-3 victory in Tampa Bay on Wednesday.
The win pushed the Reds to 4-4 in their last eight, finishing the month of June 14-12.
Now Cincinnati will try to salvage what is left of their 5-10 inter league record while trying to get a few more key hits to help Homer Bailey (3-2, 3.86 ERA) who lost his first outing of the season to the Indians back on May 21, 2-1, before being put on the disabled list May 26 with a sprained shoulder.
The right-hander went five innings and allowed five runs on nine hits in his return to the rotation, walling two and striking out six in a 7-5 loss at Baltimore last Sunday.
The odds makers have the Cincinnati Reds as a -1.5 point favorite with an run total of 9.
Matt’s Free Prediction: Cincinnati –The Indians have dropped eight of 10 at Great American Ball Park, and will still be minus Hafner. And while Carmona hasn’t impressed, I tend to think the Reds can string together enough offense to support Bailey, who despite his loss to the O’s, has looked good since his return.
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Cleveland Indians Betting Trends:
- The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Cleveland’s last 13 games
- Cleveland is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
- Cleveland is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games on the road
- The total has gone OVER in 4 of Cleveland’s last 6 games when playing Cincinnati
Cincinnati Reds Betting Trends:
- The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Cincinnati’s last 12 games
- Cincinnati is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games at home
- The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Cincinnati’s last 7 games at home
- The total has gone OVER in 4 of Cincinnati’s last 6 games when playing Cleveland
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