Houston Astros 2011 Preview, Predictions & Odds

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After digging themselves into an early hole, the Astros quietly played winning baseball during the second half of 2010. But can they sustain that success throughout 2011?

Houston Astros 2010 MLB Record: 76-86
Houston Astros 2010 MLB Home Record: 42-39
Houston Astros 2010 MLB Away Record: 34-47

Houston Astros 2011 Betting

Houston Astros Odds to Win the National League: +4000
Houston Astros Odds to Win the World Series: +10000

Houston Astros 2011 Preview & Prediction

These are not the greatest of times for the Houston Astros. The club finished in the middle of the pack in the NL Central last year and has posted losing records in consecutive seasons for the first time in two decades. Still, there is some hope for the true believers in Houston. The Astros finished strong last season – they went 59-52 after June 1 under first-year manager Brad Mills – and the addition of Clint Barmes and Bill Hall should help an offense that was among the worst in baseball last season. In addition, the Astros’ starting pitching was among the best in the NL in the second half of last season. On paper, the Cardinals, Brewers and Reds are the frontrunners in the Central, but if everything falls into place, the Astros believe they can be a factor in the seemingly always wide-open division.

Houston Astros Manager: Brad Mills – Second year Record: 76-86

Mills won over players and fans in his first season, paying attention to details after a rough start and leading his team to a 40-33 record in the second half.

Houston Astros 2011 Projected Batting Order: CF Michael Bourn (L), SS Clint Barmes (R), RF Hunter Pence (R), LF Carlos Lee (R), 3B Chris Johnson (R), 1B Brett Wallace (L), 2B Bill Hall (R), C Jason Castro (L).

Houston Astros 2011 Projected Rotation: RH Brett Myers, LH Wandy Rodriguez, LH J.A. Happ, RH Bud Norris, LH Ryan Rowland-Smith.

Houston Astros 2011 Projected Closer: RH Brandon Lyon

2011 Houston Astros Offense:

The Astros acted two years too late to maximize the trade value of their aging stars, but at least GM Ed Wade finally saw the team was decrepit beyond repair. Youngish players like OF Michael Bourn now lead the charge, and that’s a good thing. Bill Hall was brought in to be the everyday 2B. With regular playing time could quietly put up 20+ HR and 10+ SB. Jeff Keppinger is better-suited to a bench/ utility role, perhaps on a different team. OF Hunter Pence has hit 25 home runs in three consecutive years, but can’t seem to raise his on-base. OF Carlos Lee became the Astros’ mascot last year before its fire sale: old, slow and rudderless. Maybe he can rebound from his dreadful 2010, but if not, it’s time to send El Caballo to the glue factory. 1B Brett Wallace is a beer-league masher: all pop, no legs. C Jason Castro is young and has potential with the stick. SS Clint Barmes is just glad to have a job. Away from Coors, he’s useless in fantasy. 3B Chris Johnson isn’t even a household name in Houston, but he really hit after a midseason call-up.

2011 Houston Astros Rotation:

Wandy Rodriguez was his typical self last season: solid in every way, but handicapped in earning wins. He’s a constantly undervalued source of strikeouts. Brett Myers defied all odds in at least two respects after he reached Houston. First, he put up shockingly good numbers (thereby earning Drayton Mclane’s last silly contract extension before putting the team up for sale). Second, he found a clubhouse that could stomach his personality. At least for now-we’ll see how long the honeymoon lasts. J.A. Happ has the unenviable burden of being known as the guy Houston traded for Roy Oswalt. He’s shown 2009 wasn’t just a fluke. Bud Norris won’t win a Cy Young any time soon, but he’s worth nearly a strikeout per inning. Nelson Figueroa competes for the caboose role with Ryan Rowland-Smith. Figueroa is 36 and hasn’t ever topped 100 innings, so our money’s on “The Hyphen”. Prospect Jordan Lyles is only 20, but he may crack the rotation by mid-season.

2011 Houston Astros Bullpen:

Brandon Lyon steps back into the closer’s role and hopes to justify his own silly contract. The ERA and peripherals were fine in his first season for the Astros, so he’s adecent choice to finish games. Trading Matt lindstrom away on Christmas Eve Eve was partly a salary dump and partly a vote of confidence for Lyon. Wilton Lopez is one of our dark horse relievers in 2011. He’s coming off a season where he posted an amazing 50:5 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Those numbers might not hold up, but if they do, you’ve got a bargain.

2011 Houston Astros Middle Infield:

The Astros traded for Barmes from the Rockies and signed Hall to a one-year deal to play second base in an offseason effort to step up run production. The Astros managed only nine homers in the middle of the infield last year, but Barmes and Hall both have some pop and are steady defenders. Jeff Keppinger, who went from super sub to starter last year, is coming off the best season of his career but will be back on the bench with the addition of Hall at second base. Still, he’s a versatile player who makes contact and can play several positions. Tommy Manzella, last year’s starting shortstop to begin the year, will have to find a way onto the club, and Angel Sanchez, who ended the year at shortstop, also returns, although he has limited range and a weak arm, which limits how the club can use him.

2011 Houston Astros Corners:

Youngsters Chris Johnson and Brett Wallace are back to man the corner infield spots this year. Johnson had a terrific rookie campaign, hitting .308 with 11 homers and 52 RBIs after being called up in late June. The Astros are hoping he picks up in 2011 where he left off last year. Wallace, acquired in a secondary trade following the Oswalt deal, struggled in his major league debut as the starting first baseman. Wallace is a big, strong kid with a track record of being a solid run-producer throughout the minor leagues, so the Astros are going to give him every opportunity. If he needs more time, they’re prepared to move Carlos Lee in from left field to play first base like they did often last September.

2011 Houston Astros Outfield:

With Lee in left field, two-time Gold Glove winner Michael Bourn in center and Hunter Pence, a budding star, in right, the outfield is in pretty good shape. Bourn, who has led the league in steals the past two years, can run as well as anyone and is a great defensive player, though the club would like him to get on base as much as he did in his breakout season of 2009. Pence brushed off a sluggish start last year to post his third consecutive 25-homer season and has become the anchor of the lineup. Lee’s coming off a down year, but still has the ability to drive in 100 runs. Jason Michaels is a reliable backup who has some pop. Brian Bogusevic, a former first-round pick as a pitcher, and speedy Jason Bourgeois are among the fifth outfield options.

2011 Houston Astros Catching:

Jason Castro will go into the season as a starter. He made his big league debut last year and struggled at the plate, but the team needed to find out what he brought to the table. This year will go a long way in determining his future. Humberto Quintero, who led the major leagues with seven pick-offs last year, returns as the backup. He doesn’t bring much to the plate offensively, but he’s a rugged backstop and was the catcher of choice for Myers.

2011 Houston Astros Bench:

The Astros have several players on their bench capable of starting, which gives Mills more options. Michaels can play anywhere in the outfield and can hit the ball out of the ballpark, while Keppinger can play three positions and was the club’s most consistent hitter last year as the starting second baseman. Matt Downs, Manzella and Sanchez could all factor into the infield mix, while Quintero has made a nice career as a dependable back-up catcher with a strong arm.

Houston Astros 2011 Season Predictions

The Astros began a legitimate rebuilding project last year, dealing away mainstays like Lance Berkman and Roy Oswalt while trying to assemble a roster of younger talent. They exceeded expectations, playing particularly well during the second half, but this team isn’t ready to win yet. This franchise is headed back in the right direction, but it’s going to take some time for the results to show. – We predict that the Houston Astros will finish 77-85 & 4th in the NL Central Division.

Houston Astros 5-Year Win Trend

2006: 2nd NL Central 82
2007: 4th NL Central 73
2008: 3rd NL Central 86
2009: 5th NL Central 74
2010: 4th NL Central 76

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