Houston Astros 2010 Preview, Predictions & Odds

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Houston Astros 2009 MLB Record: 74-88
Houston Astros 2009 MLB Home Record: 44-37
Houston Astros 2009 MLB Away Record: 30-51

Houston Astros 2010 Betting

Houston Astros Odds to Win the National League: 30/1
Houston Astros Odds to Win the World Series: 75/1

Houston Astros 2010 Preview & Prediction

Trying to determine whether the Astros will be a better team in 2010 hinges on three moves made in three days in December. First, Jose Valverde became a free agent after declining arbitration. Then, the Astros did not re-sign reliever LaTroy Hawkins. Finally, they cut loose shortStop Miguel Tejada. These three were replaced with relievers Matt Lindstrom and Brandon Lyon and third baseman Pedro Feliz. The moves effectively reduced the Astros’ payroll by more than $10 million, but the impact on the field remains to be seen. The one area that remained largely unchanged was starting pitching, which was one of the biggest problem areas last year. Roy Oswalt needs to bounce back from a sub par year, and the Astros hope Wandy Rodriguez keeps improving. The rest of the rotation is uncertain, with Bud Norris likely the No.3 starter coming off a six-win rookie season. Then there’s franchise icon Lance Berkman, who’s coming off a down year.

Astros owner Drayton McLane won’t rebuild, and with so many veteran players having no trade clauses (Berkman, Oswalt, Carlos Lee) it probably doesn’t make sense. So the Astros keep plugging holes and biding their time until a promising group of young prospects in the lower minor leagues is ready to make an impact in a couple of years. As for now, Astros fans can only hope the returning veterans and new faces can keep the team in contention.

The Astros will be a little bit younger, will have a lower payroll and will have a new manager and coaching staff this year. If Mills can pull all the right strings, get the most out of his aging core of players and keep everyone healthy, the Astros have an outside shot at contending in a division that is up for grabs.

Houston Astros Manager: Brad Mills (0 Seasons) Record: 0-0

Houston Astros 2010 Projected Batting Order: CF Michael Bourn (L), 2B Kaz Matsui (S), 1B Lance Berkman (S), LF Carlos Lee (R), RF Hunter Pence (R), 3B Pedro Feliz (R), C J.R. Towles (R), SS Tommy Manzella (R)

Houston Astros 2010 Projected Rotation: RH Roy Oswalt, LH Wandy Rodriguez, RH Bud Norris, RH Felipe Paulino, RH Brian Moehler

Houston Astros 2010 Projected Closer: RH Brandon Lyon

2010 Houston Astros Rotation:

The back problems that have plagued Oswalt the last three years forced the Astros to end his season in the middle of September, a precaution for a team that was out of the playoff race. The health and effectiveness of the Astros’ ace pitcher will go a long way in determining how good the rotation is in 2010. Oswalt won only eight games in 30 starts last year and isn’t getting any younger, but the Astros are confident with him at the top of the rotation. Rodriguez gives the Astros a legitimate No. 2 pitcher after his breakout season of a year ago, but everything else is unsettled. Can Norris build on his good rookie season and be a legitimate full season starting pitcher? Can Brian Moehler continue to eat innings? Will Felipe Paulino find his groove and take a spot in the rotation? Or will left hander Wesley Wright find a home in the rotation after two years in the bullpen? There are more question marks than answers for a rotation that ranked 14th in the National League last season in ERA and innings pitched.

2009-2010 Houston Astros Bullpen:

No area of the team underwent more changes in the off season than the bullpen. The Astros offered arbitration to Valverde, who declined and freed up money for the team to make other moves. Not long after Valverde turned down the offer and Hawkins signed with Milwaukee (the Astros had earlier parted ways with Doug Brocail), the Astros traded for Lindstrom from the Marlins and signed Lyon to a three-year, $15 million contract. Both Lindstrom and Lyon have experience closing, and they will both go into spring training trying to win a job they could end up sharing. Lindstrom saved 15 games and posted a 5.89 ERA for the Marlins in 2009, and Lyon saved 26 games for Arizona in 2008. Jeff Fulchino and Alberto Arias, a pair of waiver claims who had promising seasons, figure to occupy two bullpen spots, along with Chris Sampson and left hander Tim Byrdak. Byrdak was the only reliever not to get injured last year, so health will be a key issue.

2010 Houston Astros Middle Infield:

The Astros could have one of the best defensive middle infields in the National League, but the offensive capabilities of shortstop Tommy Manzella and second baseman Kaz Matsui are another issue. Manzella, a rookie, is expected to replace Tejada as the starting shortstop. He won’t come anywhere close to replacing the 199 hits or 86 RBI’s that Tejada produced in 2009, but Manzella is a plus-plus defender who will be a pitcher’s best friend. Matsui played in a career-high 132 games in 2009 and was terrific on defense. He posted the second-best fielding percentage among all NL second basemen at .991.

2010 Houston Astros Corners:

One of the goals for general manager Ed Wade in the off season was upgrading the offense, which meant adding a third baseman. Geoff Blum got most of the playing time at the hot corner in 2009, but the Astros believe he’s more effective coming off the bench and moving around the infield. Wade addressed the opening by signing Pedro Feliz to a one-year contract worth $4.5 million. Feliz, 34, hit .266 with 12 homers and 82 RBI’s in his second year with the Phillies in 2009 and is a good defensive player. Berkman continues to hold down first base but is coming off one of his worst offensive seasons. Berkman hit .274 with 25 homers and 80 RBI’s in 136 games, putting up numbers well below his career averages. He had a 33-game stretch without a homer and missed 18 games with an injury, but he hit .310 after June 25 to rescue his batting average from a .239 black hole.

2010 Houston Astros Outfield:

The Astros have to like their outfield situation for 2010. Lee has batted .305 with 86 homers and 321 RBI’s in three seasons with the Astros despite being a liability in the outfield. Center fielder Michael Bourn was one of the team’s biggest surprise stories in 2009. He hit .285, scored 97 runs and led the National League with 61 stolen bases and won a Gold Glove for his stellar defensive play. Right fielder Hunter Pence made his first All-Star team in 2009 and is looking to build on a 2009 season in which he hit .282 with 25 homers and 72 RBI’s

2010 Houston Astros Catching:

Former first-round pick Jason Castro is the catcher of the future, but the timing of that future is in limbo. Castro will come to spring training competing for one of two spots on the Opening Day roster, along with J.R. Towles and Humberto Quintero. Castro hit a combined .300 with 10 homers and 73 RBI’s at Class A Lancaster and Class AA Corpus Christi. If he’s not ready to play in the majors when the season starts, Towles and Quintero will be the catchers. Towles was the No.1 prospect and starting catcher entering 2008 but has played mostly in the minors since. Quintero is a strong-armed backup who doesn’t provide much offense. For the Astros’ sake, they better hope Castro lives up to his hype.

2010 Houston Astros Bench:

On the infield, Blum and Jeff Keppinger are about as versatile as it gets. Blum can play any of the four infield spots, and Keppinger can play all but first base. Blum is a switch-hitter who has some pop, and Keppinger has historically punished left handers in his career. Jason Michaels returns as the fourth outfielder and can play all three spots. Michaels hit .237 last year but was a decent pinch-hitter and hit .308 overall after July 4. The fifth outfield spot is up for grabs, with Jason Bourgeois, Reggie Abercrombie and Yordany Ramirez competing for playing time.

Houston Astros 2010 Season Predictions

We predict that the Houston Astros will finish 4th in the NL Central Division .

Houston Astros 5-Year Win Trend

2009: 5th NL Central 74
2008: 3rd NL Central 86
2007: 4th NL Central 73
2006: 2nd NL Central 82
2005: 2nd NL Central 89

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