Cincinnati vs St. Louis | Prediction & Pick

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Cincinnati Reds (11-10) vs St. Louis Cardinals (11-10)
Sunday, April 24, 2011 at 8:30 PM EST on ESPN

Money Line: Reds +104 / Cardinals -114
Over/Under: 8.5

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Pitching Probables: Edinson Volquez vs Jake Westbrook

Two games into the series and the teams are still tied in the standings.  Edinson Volquez was scheduled to start the series opener on Friday night but after the weather delay manager Dusty Baker elected to take a different approach and push him back to Sunday.  The first two games of the series have been tight affairs, each won by a couple of runs.  Yesterday the Reds were able to get three unearned runs against veteran Cards reliever Miguel Batista as the Cardinals defense let them down again.  Cincinnati claimed the victory even though they got only 4 hits the entire game.  It is the rare occasion when you have less hits than runs in a ball game but the Reds capitalized big time on the Cardinals miscues.

As the series closes out the Cardinals are sending their least effective starter to the mound in the form of Jake Westbrook.  The former Indian is just getting clobbered with an ERA close to 10.  In games he starts the Cards are averaging more than 7 runs per contest but it still hasn’t been enough to avoid a 1-3 record when he takes the hill.  It is a small sample for sure but Westbrook, who never really had dominant stuff to begin with, has been an absolute disaster at home with an ERA over 18 (that is not a typo).  I think we are witnessing a player who is no longer fit to start in the majors.  Cards Manager Tony LaRussa has always favoured veterans but in this case it is to the detriment of the team as Westbrook can no longer really give them a chance to win.

Prediction:  In the AL I am fading Brad Penny with some success and in the NL Westbrook seems like a good fade candidate too.  Because he is with STL there is probably some value there too.  I look for the Reds to continue the pounding he has been receiving and for the Reds to win easily.

Score Prediction: Cincinnati – 8 / St. Louis – 4

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Cincinnati Reds Betting Trends:

• Cincinnati is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games
• Cincinnati is 8-16 SU in its last 24 games on the road
• The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cincinnati’s last 6 games when playing St. Louis
• Cincinnati is 2-7 SU in its last 9 games when playing St. Louis

St. Louis Cardinals Betting Trends:

• St. Louis is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games
• The total has gone OVER in 8 of St. Louis’s last 11 games
• The total has gone UNDER in 11 of St. Louis’s last 16 games at home
• The total has gone UNDER in 4 of St. Louis’s last 6 games when playing Cincinnati